Hong Kong late money

[lamboguy]

there is some serious late money coming in on their races almost all the time now. it looks like one guy comes in with about 1 minute to post and then there must be some follower's after that to knock the odds down more.

the money was winning, i don't know how its done the last few days.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there is some serious late money coming in on their races almost all the time now. it looks like one guy comes in with about 1 minute to post and then there must be some follower's after that to knock the odds down more.

the money was winning, i don't know how its done the last few days.

Sorry, I'll try to bet earlier.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there is some serious late money coming in on their races almost all the time now. it looks like one guy comes in with about 1 minute to post and then there must be some follower's after that to knock the odds down more.

the money was winning, i don't know how its done the last few days.

Aren't the pools supposed to be so massive that any kind of late money won't shift the odds all that much?

[Steve 'StatMan']

I believe there are separate pools for U.S. based bettors, I don't believe U.S. bettors can bet into co-mingled pools with Hong Kong or many other countries/jurisdictions.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'

I believe there are separate pools for U.S. based bettors, I don't believe U.S. bettors can bet into co-mingled pools with Hong Kong or many other countries/jurisdictions.

That is not correct.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Aren't the pools supposed to be so massive that any kind of late money won't shift the odds all that much?

These HK whales have to be betting substantial six figure,
and occasional seven figure, wagers to be causing these moves.

The pools there are huge, but if you bet enough...........

[handyman1968]

It's different sydicates betting late and mostly computer money. US money goes into HK Pool. Next month more exotics will be offered but for now only Win/Show/Quinella/Trifecta...still doesn't stop the fact that almost every week one or two tris payout in 5 digits

Edit: Don;t use live stream or your ADW for odds. Use HKJC website and use their tote. Major betting moves are color coded.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

These HK whales have to be betting substantial six figure,
and occasional seven figure, wagers to be causing these moves.

The pools there are huge, but if you bet enough...........

People always talk about HK integrity vs US integrity, but people in US aren't betting a million (or more) to win last flash. I'd have to question anyone betting that kind of money just on handicapping, you have to have better information and inside information in order to risk that kind of cash, these guys are not betting off the PPs.

[appistappis]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

People always talk about HK integrity vs US integrity, but people in US aren't betting a million (or more) to win last flash. I'd have to question anyone betting that kind of money just on handicapping, you have to have better information and inside information in order to risk that kind of cash, these guys are not betting off the PPs.

you have obviously never seen a live bacarrat game.

[handyman1968]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

People always talk about HK integrity vs US integrity, but people in US aren't betting a million (or more) to win last flash. I'd have to question anyone betting that kind of money just on handicapping, you have to have better information and inside information in order to risk that kind of cash, these guys are not betting off the PPs.

Not all late moves are betting syndicates. Some are also illegal bookies looking to cover their @ss...might have too much money riding on a horse so they dump it on the tote. Yes despite being the best racing jurisdiction in the world, HK is also victim to the underground betting market just like everyone else. These illegal bookies offer fixed odds which is why they are attractive to certain people. You have no idea how big the REAL horse racing market is in HK...even the authorities are not sure 100% how much money is bet illegally but they do know it's a significant amount.

[tanner12oz]

Anyone know if twinspires will be getting HK ?

[ronsmac]

I think they give 10% rebates on losing win bets of 10k HK.

[P Matties Jr]

You beat me to the punch. I was just going to post the same thing (10% on losing bets totaling over $10,000 HK dollars).

Most of the late money you see is the same computer betting you see here, just at a higher level.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Originally Posted by horses4courses

That is not correct.

Thanks, good to know.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by handyman1968

It's different sydicates betting late and mostly computer money. US money goes into HK Pool. Next month more exotics will be offered but for now only Win/Show/Quinella/Trifecta...still doesn't stop the fact that almost every week one or two tris payout in 5 digits

Edit: Don;t use live stream or your ADW for odds. Use HKJC website and use their tote. Major betting moves are color coded.

The late odds moves on the HKJC show up in two waves, with green being 20% moves and the orange/brown highlights being the 50% moves. Sometimes you can get an extra bet in on the late moves up to about the the gate being half loaded, but then some other huge moves can come where you can't act on it. It's amazing how the last 20-30 seconds will rock the odds in some races.

Earlier in the year, a "big plunge" race was happening about one in three races, with the "steam" horse being bet not doing so well. One of the posters here had some stats related to this, and the steam horse only won about 18-20% of the time.

BTW - Xpressbet currently offers the "swinger" wager, which bets into the Quienella Place pool. Same as the Omni. And can pay pretty well, as it's often bigger than the Q pool, with lots of spread.