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Old 05-06-2021, 05:21 PM   #1
burnsy
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Is the Triple Crown format a thing of the past?

Well, Brad Cox just walked away from the Preakness saying one horse shouldn’t come back in 2 weeks. “Ran real hard” and his other horse isn’t ready for prime time yet. So, the field continues to shrink . I know people bring this up all the time. How do you define these races as a “series” when not many of them will run in 2 let alone all three? Unless you win the first one, these trainers are telling everyone it’s too much on their horse or chances are they will run better/last longer with a longer break. The way these guys are talking the Travers is shaping up nicely...... what’s that ? Like 12 to 13 weeks away ? C’mon
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Old 05-06-2021, 05:36 PM   #2
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Old 05-07-2021, 07:07 AM   #3
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Marketing wise, IMO, it’s better to spread them out. Have first weekend April major preps, first weekend May Derby.

If theywant to take on Indy 500, Preakness Memorial Day weekend. If not, first weekend June. 4th of July weekend Belmont.

Something like that. Then link them as a playoff points system equating to champ 3 year old. Maybe work in some of the summer 3 yr old stakes.

Triple Crown is the sports biggest asset and would be better to get the “stars” to participate.

NBA playoffs are in the tank ratings wise. Fill the void.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:25 AM   #4
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Keep the Derby the 1st Saturday in May then follow with the Preakness 4 weeks later and then the Belmont another 4 weeks after. I am not a trainer or owner but the 4 weeks seems to be about the general time between races unless its right before the Derby then they seem to like the 5 weeks but I believe the 4 week gap would help get more trainers and owners willing to enter the TC races.
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Old 05-07-2021, 12:16 PM   #5
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spacing, and an incentive (such as offering $3Million Purse for a Gold,Silver,Bronze medal purse bonus for the top-3 Triple Crown points accumalting runners who run in all three races) may be necessary.

Baffert is a notorious star of training, but at least he has a history of respecting the Preakness.

The Belmont has already become an afterthought, unless a horse has a Derby win or was a Derby horse with a known plodding/Tapit type of style and pedigree....

The new trend seems to be needing 3-4 weeks to fully medicate the horses between starts, and the newest notorious supertrainer (Cox) seems to have no respect for either the Preakness or the Belmont.
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Old 05-07-2021, 02:47 PM   #6
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The strange thing is that I would WAY rather run the Preakness off two weeks rest and then give my horse a freshening than skip the Preakness and run at 1 1/2 miles in the Belmont. Loads of very good horses fail at 1 1/2 miles and need a freshening after a debacle in that race. The Belmont is a good race for the occasional stamina horse that may not have the quality to win a race like a Derby prep, Ky Derby, or Preakness to beat better rivals because they were less suited to the distance. There's no way I'd be skipping the Preakness with Essential Quality and Mandaloun unless there was an issue with the horses. I can sort of see skipping with Caddo River if you think he's not up to the task at 1 3/16ths yet, but not the other 2.
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Old 05-07-2021, 03:27 PM   #7
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I don't think spacing the races is going to help much at all. Most trainers are not looking for contentious races where they are going to be 6 to 1 or 8-1 any more. They want easy spots and about the only time they are going to go for it is the Kentucky Derby or a Breeders' Cup race, and even those we often see connections opting for the easiest spot as opposed to the most lucrative.

Changing the spacing won't change much except we'll get different excuses for skipping the Preakness.

Last edited by cj; 05-07-2021 at 03:29 PM.
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Old 05-07-2021, 07:11 PM   #8
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I don't want anything changed, including the distances. If you schedule the Preakness four weeks later many casual fans will lose interest in the Triple Crown. I like the two week interval, you get enough talk about who is in or out and before you know it the race is here. I still have never bought into the excuse a horse can't run two minutes but every 6-8 weeks.
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Old 05-08-2021, 11:24 AM   #9
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I agree with CJ and Zico. Somehow the horse that wins the Derby always makes the Preakness if they are healthy. The same can’t be said for everyone else. A horse that runs well in the Derby most likely can make the two week turn around. The rivalry that develops during the Triple Crown series used to be part of the story and the “juice”. It’s kind of a revolving door now. The fact is they should be racing more but it’s not working . I agree, it shouldn’t be changed but at the same time it’s easy to see this schedule is not really working out.

Plus, it’s a micro management deal now . Take Caddo River, in the Preakness he’s another contender or possible player. I think he’s aiming for the Matt Winn next where he will most likely be odds on. If you look at his form. He’s definitely a horse that needs some dressing up at this point . The analytics and rest , have negatively affected the Triple Crown series. The emphasis on wins and future breeding deals have lowered the level of competition. These horses are being trained and raced like lightning. A short career path following the least path of resistance. There’s only a few days a year that catches the casual fans eye. The game seems to be fine with it if the handle is there.
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Old 05-08-2021, 11:46 AM   #10
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Wink

A $1 million bonus for the top 3 horses who ran in all three triple crown races.

give out points for 1st -2nd -3rd -4th in various triple crown races ( like in derby preps point system)

After the triple crown, distribute the Million to the top points earners like a purse 60% 30% 10%.

could make the rule 2 out of 3 races, for the first five years or so...

--------------------

Other options include a simple multiplier bonus (Fin top 5 in KYD? then any purse moneys you earn in Preakness x1.5, still with us in Belmont after legs1+2? then 2xBel Purse multiplier...)

What could go wrong?
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Old 05-08-2021, 12:19 PM   #11
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I agree, it shouldn’t be changed but at the same time it’s easy to see this schedule is not really working out.
Any easy fix that will allay some of the trend of micormanaging racehorses towards stallion careers is to bring back the $1 million bonus to the horse that accumulates the most point after competing in all 3 Triple Crown races.

Another big problem is the advent of the supertrainers, concentrating the most promising of the crop in the hands of the few. If you want to get extreme, the TC races could limit the number of starters per trainer (e.g., no more than 2 entrants). That would compel owners from the very beginning to use some discretion in who they have training their classic prospects (and consequently improve the competitiveness of the Derby prep races).

It would also theoretically help mitigate another big problem of horse wastage. When these supertrainers have 10 horses to play with on the Derby trail, the focus becomes less on the individual horse and more on the trainer having a horse in the starting gate. Horses in that situation get overtrained and start to fall by the wayside or get held out of an logical races because the trainer already "has one for that race". In the opposite situation, a trainer with one prospect would be more concerned with realizing the horse's potential rather than focused on keeping his multiple candidates apart. They also would not have to worry about "avoiding Baffert" if Baffert himself doesn't have command of a dozen would-be monsters- again, improving the competitiveness of the prep races.

Everyone nowadays presumes Baffert, Casse, Pletcher, Asmussen, and Cox will have a horse for the Derby every year as though they are entitled to a reserved spot in the starting gate. Those guys waste a lot of talented horses in the process. The sad part is, when those same trainers are successful in the classics, they are lauded as though they know what they are doing (i.e., "he knows how to get a horse to the Derby").

But if you actually look at their records, they aren't that sharp. Baffert won the Derby last year with a horse that supposedly couldn't get the distance, but is it possible that Nadal, Charlatan, Cezanne, and Uncle Chuck would have had a say in the outcome if they had been in different barns and not ended up injured before the race? Would Medina Spirit's form have been so muddled if he was trained by someone who trying to get the best out of him every start rather than using him to fill the race for a stablemate?

Why does Pletcher command so many prospects with a 2 for 100+ Derby record and only 2 Preakness starters in the past 15 years? Has he ever had a classic winner that ever won another race afterwards?

Why does Asmussen have status as a classic trainer when his 2 Preakness winners were purchased from other connections only a couple of months or even days (in the case of Rachel Alexandra) before the race?

Why would an owner give Cox get classic prospects if he truly believes horses shouldn't run back in 2 weeks?
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Old 05-08-2021, 05:32 PM   #12
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Why does Asmussen have status as a classic trainer when his 2 Preakness winners were purchased from other connections only a couple of months or even days (in the case of Rachel Alexandra) before the race?
He does also have Creator, who he trained from first start to the win in the Belmont.
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Old 05-08-2021, 06:07 PM   #13
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He does also have Creator, who he trained from first start to the win in the Belmont.
Yeah, I was going to mention the horse but didn't want to load the case against Asmussen. Started the horse on turf, took forever to break his maiden, won a poor renewal of the Belmont amid 3 bad efforts, and was retired by the fall.

He won a couple of important races but I wouldn't consider that horse one of his better training jobs.
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Old 05-08-2021, 06:50 PM   #14
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Yeah, I was going to mention the horse but didn't want to load the case against Asmussen. Started the horse on turf, took forever to break his maiden, won a poor renewal of the Belmont amid 3 bad efforts, and was retired by the fall.

He won a couple of important races but I wouldn't consider that horse one of his better training jobs.
Still, winning 2 of the 3 classics, regardless of how or with who (and, no he didn't start with Curlin - but still navigated February through May and beyond) - that's classic enough for me.
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Old 05-08-2021, 07:14 PM   #15
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Still, winning 2 of the 3 classics, regardless of how or with who (and, no he didn't start with Curlin - but still navigated February through May and beyond) - that's classic enough for me.
Fair enough, but by saying "regardless of how or with who" you're basically illustrating my point that the racing industry tolerates this needless waste of horse talent and often fails to promote its equine stars in favor of coddling supertrainers with dubious reputations.
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