Past posting

[Poindexter]

by the way I was just curious, so I just ran the double probables at Canterbury tonight for races 2-7. For each race I will give 1st the projected odds off of double probables(double pool that closed at the bell of the previous race) and the latter will be the closing tote odds(I went to the charts for more precision.

2nd)

1.4, 1.1
3.8, 5.2
2, 2.6
10.7, 12.4
2.9, 3.4


3rd)

2.56, 3
8.77, 17.1
3.86, 4.2
12.16, 26
2.36, 1.8
1.94, 2

4th)

3.38, 4.1
4.8, 8.4
7.39, 7.9
1.3, .9
1.87, 2.4

5th)

2.14, 1.5
2.3, 4.4
20.34, 27.7
2.42, 2.5
5.89, 5
4.07, 5.2

6th

2.91, 3.2
5.65, 6.3
12.13, 26.6
.64, .7
19.64, 23.7
5.04, 3.9

7th

3.33, 4.8
21.19, 35.7
3.83, 3
4.4, 9/2
11.12, 13.3
2.43, 2.2
2.82, 3.7

This is Canterbury, a track with $3500 double and $40,000 win pools. Yet for the most part they fairly accurately project the pricing on most of the contenders. Longshots on the other hand are not very accurate.

[classhandicapper]

Let me clarify about underlays, I'm saying if I make a horse 4-1 and I insist on a 50% overlay then I want to bet it at 6-1 or more. 40% of the time if I bet 6-1 and up on the horse at 0MTP the final odds ended up below 4-1, not between 4-1 and 6-1

I said this earlier in the thread, but it's significant.

Long before computers were part of this game, some big gamblers were already manually arbitraging between various pools.

In 1986 (I can date it) I would look at the exacta and double payoffs to see if I could squeeze some extra value out by dutch wheeling my horse. Invariably, if the pools were out of line, the late money would drive them into line. It happened so often I stopped trying.

So whatever is going on now was already going on to some degree over 30 years ago.

Perhaps in 1986 the horse would open at 8-1, slowly drift down to 6-1 over 5 minutes and then go to 5-1, 4-1 and 7/2 in the last few minutes. You could see what what was happening and adjust. Now it all happens much later and in bigger moves because so much money comes in late via computer instead of manually over 5-10 minutes.

No doubt these guys are also sharp handicappers making great odds lines, but 30 years ago people weren't dummies. They just didn't have the technology to get all the required bets down with a single push of a button in the last 30 seconds. It took them 5 or more minutes and they couldn't be as accurate.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a very different opinion. As far as I am concerned...no one in the industry cares about players like you and me...who played a "lone hand" and wagered millions of dollars over the years. We used to be the game's best customers, but we are now an afterthought...and the prevailing opinion within the industry is that the game can function just fine without us. Anything that the game does to appease players like you and me is sure to upset the heavily-rebated batch players, who have now become the new "best customers" of the game...and the batch players' money is too big and too consistent to risk for the sake of inconsistent players like us. It's obvious to me that the industry has made up its mind that we are quite expendable...while the batch players are not.

Imo, you're right.

Imo, money from casino and slots subsidies has made it possible for track management and horsemen led alphabet groups to ignore the needs and wants of the betting customer.

Imo, in the long run - the best thing that could happen to the game (I have a hard time thinking of racing as a sport because Imo it's become a mere shadow of what a sport is supposed to be) would be for state governments to realize that casino and slots subsidy money would be better spent on education and highways, etc.

At which point, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups would be forced to face the music.

As in satisfy the needs and wants of the customers in your identifiable target markets. As in run racing as a business that can stand on its own two feet or face extinction.

Imo, the sooner that happens the better. And the sooner track management and horsemen led alphabet groups decide to put everybody on the same level playing field.


-jp

.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a very different opinion. As far as I am concerned...no one in the industry cares about players like you and me...who played a "lone hand" and wagered millions of dollars over the years. We used to be the game's best customers, but we are now an afterthought...and the prevailing opinion within the industry is that the game can function just fine without us. Anything that the game does to appease players like you and me is sure to upset the heavily-rebated batch players, who have now become the new "best customers" of the game...and the batch players' money is too big and too consistent to risk for the sake of inconsistent players like us. It's obvious to me that the industry has made up its mind that we are quite expendable...while the batch players are not.

I agree completely. Like the tracks think the people like you and me are nice to have around but ultimately they dont need us.

Honestly most tracks probably know where all this is headed, just like with Arlington and Hollywood Park so getting as much as you can right now is probably the goal. Decisions were made a long time ago that now they cannot go back on.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, you're right.

Imo, money from casino and slots subsidies has made it possible for track management and horsemen led alphabet groups to ignore the needs and wants of the betting customer.

Imo, in the long run - the best thing that could happen to the game (I have a hard time thinking of racing as a sport because Imo it's become a mere shadow of what a sport is supposed to be) would be for state governments to realize that casino and slots subsidy money would be better spent on education and highways, etc.

At which point, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups would be forced to face the music.

As in satisfy the needs and wants of the customers in your identifiable target markets. As in run racing as a business that can stand on its own two feet or face extinction.

Imo, the sooner that happens the better. And the sooner track management and horsemen led alphabet groups decide to put everybody on the same level playing field.


-jp

.

again, agree completely with this. Until the slot money goes away then nothing will change. I dont know if it changes the CAW situation, they need to limit batch betting in sort of fashion.

[GMB@BP]

This is how little the normal everday player means to the tracks anymore.

Say I bet 100k in a year, not really that hard but a decent amount of betting. If AVG takeout is 20% the track has made 20k, or $1650 a month. Now the quality of my play may make up for that and I am not actually spending 20k but that does not change the fact the track made 20k.

Is there any other recreational item that if you spend 20k a year on you are not treated like your important?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, you're right.

Imo, money from casino and slots subsidies has made it possible for track management and horsemen led alphabet groups to ignore the needs and wants of the betting customer.

Imo, in the long run - the best thing that could happen to the game (I have a hard time thinking of racing as a sport because Imo it's become a mere shadow of what a sport is supposed to be) would be for state governments to realize that casino and slots subsidy money would be better spent on education and highways, etc.

At which point, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups would be forced to face the music.

As in satisfy the needs and wants of the customers in your identifiable target markets. As in run racing as a business that can stand on its own two feet or face extinction.

Imo, the sooner that happens the better. And the sooner track management and horsemen led alphabet groups decide to put everybody on the same level playing field.


-jp

.

I've been saying for a long time slots and other subsidies were the worst thing to happen for bettors. I remember when it first came about, think Delaware Park was the first track. The promises were of big, full field competing for large purses. But right from the start fields were anything but big. Purses were large, but races were terrible for betting. Nothing has changed since. Too many tracks that would be out of business siphon off horses from tracks that care about racing.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs...004-story.html

[aaron]

Originally Posted by cj

I've been saying for a long time slots and other subsidies were the worst thing to happen for bettors. I remember when it first came about, think Delaware Park was the first track. The promises were of big, full field competing for large purses. But right from the start fields were anything but big. Purses were large, but races were terrible for betting. Nothing has changed since. Too many tracks that would be out of business siphon off horses from tracks that care about racing.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs...004-story.html

In NY the casino doesn't even acknowledge there is a track on the property. I am not surprised by this because you had lightweights negotiating against one of the biggest gaming companies.

[classhandicapper]

The casino conversation takes us right back to the same thing I've been saying for a long time. To fix the economics of the sport you need consolidation. It couldn't have been any more obvious than during the peak of epidemic when only a couple of very low quality tracks were open and they were breaking all kinds of handle records.

Imagine if it was just high quality and vacation destination tracks like SAR, BEL, OP, KEE, CD, GP, DMR, SA, MTH, FG, and maybe a few others with only 3-4 open at any given time. They would be overflowing with horses and free cash for purses, lowering track takes, capital spending to make the tracks more attractive, advertising etc..

It's a political problem not a common sense or economics problem.

A lot of horse people in racing would lose their jobs, lower quality breeding would shrink, some statebred programs would go away etc.. Consolidation always involves pain for some, but you do it because the end result can save a struggling industry.

None of that solves late batch computer betting though.

[classhandicapper]

There's a point at which the tracks might finally figure out they have a business model that might not be sustainable.

When enough of the day to day serious players and more casual inefficient players drop out, the computer players will primarily be competing against each other. The pools will then become so efficient some of them will start losing their edge and dipping into the red even with rebates. If a few whales drop out, maybe a light bulb will go off somewhere.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a very different opinion. As far as I am concerned...no one in the industry cares about players like you and me...who played a "lone hand" and wagered millions of dollars over the years. We used to be the game's best customers, but we are now an afterthought...and the prevailing opinion within the industry is that the game can function just fine without us. Anything that the game does to appease players like you and me is sure to upset the heavily-rebated batch players, who have now become the new "best customers" of the game...and the batch players' money is too big and too consistent to risk for the sake of inconsistent players like us. It's obvious to me that the industry has made up its mind that we are quite expendable...while the batch players are not.

To hell with all these opinions! Why not just face the facts?

So, all you lofty players who think this game (or industry) owes you something? Think again! Try humbling yourself to accept the fact that you’re an outsider playing an insider’s game. That statement should be accepted by any rationale mind. In spite of any skepticism, the connections will always function on multiple levels from knowing each and every aspect of a horse’s condition to the money being wagered in an array of betting pools at various times during a typical betting cycle.

Why are so many concerned about what other players (that operate at different levels) might be doing? Maybe they’ve got the resources to play the game much more seriously in terms of gathering accurate information and acting on it accordingly with sufficient funding.

If you feel you can’t compete with just guesswork based on feeble attempts to analyze the PP data or statistics, then by all means do yourself a favor and get out of the game. The industry doesn’t care one way or the other. They certainly know and understand who has the most to lose or gain from their exploits and its certainly not an outsider looking to cash in once and while.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

To hell with all these opinions! Why not just face the facts?

So, all you lofty players who think this game (or industry) owes you something? Think again! Try humbling yourself to accept the fact that you’re an outsider playing an insider’s game. That statement should be accepted by any rationale mind. In spite of any skepticism, the connections will always function on multiple levels from knowing each and every aspect of a horse’s condition to the money being wagered in an array of betting pools at various times during a typical betting cycle.

Why are so many concerned about what other players (that operate at different levels) might be doing? Maybe they’ve got the resources to play the game much more seriously in terms of gathering accurate information and acting on it accordingly with sufficient funding.

If you feel you can’t compete with just guesswork based on feeble attempts to analyze the PP data or statistics, then by all means do yourself a favor and get out of the game. The industry doesn’t care one way or the other. They certainly know and understand who has the most to lose or gain from their exploits and its certainly not an outsider looking to cash in once and while.

Congratulations! You've managed an entire post without once mentioning "Hong Kong"...and their "pristine product".

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Congratulations! You've managed an entire post without once mentioning "Hong Kong"...and their "pristine product".

Thanks, but you can bring water to the horse, but you can't make it drink.

Besides, you may know as well as I do that all this nonsense that's being complained about here doesn't exist in HK. What's really ironic is that the betting in the States palls by comparison to the MILLIONS of dollars being bet on EACH individual race in HK.
Why is it that they know how to control the betting cut-off and we don't?

Yes, you're right it's a product that they're patronage surely appreciates from many different vantage points and perspectives.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Nitro

To hell with all these opinions! Why not just face the facts?

So, all you lofty players who think this game (or industry) owes you something? Think again! Try humbling yourself to accept the fact that you’re an outsider playing an insider’s game. That statement should be accepted by any rationale mind. In spite of any skepticism, the connections will always function on multiple levels from knowing each and every aspect of a horse’s condition to the money being wagered in an array of betting pools at various times during a typical betting cycle.

Why are so many concerned about what other players (that operate at different levels) might be doing? Maybe they’ve got the resources to play the game much more seriously in terms of gathering accurate information and acting on it accordingly with sufficient funding.

If you feel you can’t compete with just guesswork based on feeble attempts to analyze the PP data or statistics, then by all means do yourself a favor and get out of the game. The industry doesn’t care one way or the other. They certainly know and understand who has the most to lose or gain from their exploits and its certainly not an outsider looking to cash in once and while.

You have that nailed. Let's see 60+% drop of in non high volume rebate betting in 16 years. Seems like more than a few have taken you up on your suggestion. Let's see what happens when the next 16 years sees a similar fate. I don't think even your masterful tote board program and the gift of turning 4 or 5 horses a race into huge profits consistently will be able to succeed then.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

You have that nailed. Let's see 60+% drop of in non high volume rebate betting in 16 years. Seems like more than a few have taken you up on your suggestion. Let's see what happens when the next 16 years sees a similar fate. I don't think even your masterful tote board program and the gift of turning 4 or 5 horses a race into huge profits consistently will be able to succeed then.

I'm certainly not going to worry about it (or how others may play the game) because I may be long gone by then!
I'm just grateful that I've been able to enjoy the game after dissociating myself with all the rigors of traditional handicapping.