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04-24-2019, 05:38 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burls
Of course, we'll have to wait and see what the odds are 10 minutes to POST TIME.
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Fortunately, Derby odds tend to be relatively stable hours before post given the massive pools generated well in advance of the race.
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04-24-2019, 05:45 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 116
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My top choices:
1. GW
2. OB/Roadster
3. MS
4. Tacitus
5. Improbable
Top long shots underneath: Tax, Code of Honor and By My Standards.
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04-24-2019, 08:54 PM
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#48
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver Canada
Posts: 3,204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Fortunately, Derby odds tend to be relatively stable hours before post given the massive pools generated well in advance of the race.
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For me, it's all about VALUE.
If I think a horse has a better chance of winning or showing up in the exotics than the betting pools indicate, that's a reason to wager on that horse.
I agree with a number of you that Maximum Security and Omaha Beach are the two horses with the best chance of winning.
But I would never bet on either of these two to win if, as I anticipate, the odds on them are pounded down to chalk dust.
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04-24-2019, 09:05 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 121
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Bottom 10:
20. Master Fencer
19. Gray Magician
18. Plus Que Parfait
17. Long Range Toddy
16. Haikal
15. Tax
14. Cutting Humor
13. By My Standards
12. Code of Honor
11. Spinoff
Last edited by señorclipclop; 04-24-2019 at 09:08 PM.
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04-24-2019, 09:10 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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My Bottom 10: (changes daily)
Master Fencer
Gray Magician
Plus Que Parfait
Long Range Toddy
War of Will
Vekoma
Country House
Code of Honor
Cutting Humor
Haikal
Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-24-2019 at 09:12 PM.
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04-24-2019, 10:13 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
yea,
this is one i screen capped from his Nashua last november |
I'm glad you put this pic up Robert.
When I watched the BG I couldn't believe the way Vekoma was traveling.
It made me nervous.......I thought this horse was going to fall apart.
So I went back and watched the Nashua.........it wasn't good.
In the stretch Vekoma was lugging in something fierce........and it sure looked like it was because of his eggbeater left front.
When horses lug in or out it's usually a sign of leg problems.........geez.
Like Fager & Zilzal brought up earlier in the thread,this horse probably has a dangerous hole in him.
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04-24-2019, 11:09 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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My list from beginning of this topic is stale now.......3 weeks out was a bit too early for me and I've since done more crunching. Will update after the draw I guess. That way I won't have to do it twice.
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04-25-2019, 12:39 AM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I have no clue how they bet this.
Feels like Omaha Beach 4/1 Game Winner 5/1, Roadster 8/1, Improbably and Tacitus 10/1. I guess Maximum Security/Vekoma around 12/1 and then big drops to the rest of the field. Code of Honor 20/1.
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04-25-2019, 01:05 AM
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#54
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I have no clue how they bet this.
Feels like Omaha Beach 4/1 Game Winner 5/1, Roadster 8/1, Improbably and Tacitus 10/1. I guess Maximum Security/Vekoma around 12/1 and then big drops to the rest of the field. Code of Honor 20/1.
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Improbable is going to take a lot of money. I will be surprised if above 8-1 when they break.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
Last edited by jocko699; 04-25-2019 at 01:07 AM.
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04-25-2019, 01:29 AM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
Improbable is going to take a lot of money. I will be surprised if above 8-1 when they break.
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remember the long shots take more money than normal so often times these more middle contenders drift up...Good Magic was 10/1 last year and he had much better credentials than Improbable.
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04-25-2019, 03:51 PM
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#56
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Good Magic was extremely over rated. We shall see.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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04-25-2019, 08:44 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
Good Magic was extremely over rated. We shall see.
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You win the breeders cup juvenile, the blue grass, the haskell, and run 2nd to a freak in the derby its really hard to be overrated, unless people were mentioning him in the same breath as Arazi, then I would agree.
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04-25-2019, 09:15 PM
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#58
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
You win the breeders cup juvenile, the blue grass, the haskell, and run 2nd to a freak in the derby its really hard to be overrated, unless people were mentioning him in the same breath as Arazi, then I would agree.
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As I said...…..…………...
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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04-26-2019, 02:56 AM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
You win the breeders cup juvenile, the blue grass, the haskell, and run 2nd to a freak in the derby its really hard to be overrated, unless people were mentioning him in the same breath as Arazi, then I would agree.
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And where oh where are they now........
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04-26-2019, 03:51 AM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I guess Maximum Security/Vekoma around 12/1
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really? max? Every other person seems be betting him.
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