i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

His Santa Anita Derby time was actually tremendously fast, and I didn't need a Beyer figure to know that. The Santa Anita track has slowed down more than 2 seconds in route races over the past couple of years, as they have tried to give it a better cushion and make it safer to reduce breakdowns. I know this simply because I watch all the races and keep track of the final times.

Had Justify gotten the chance to run over the 2014 track that Game on Dude ran 1:58 flat over and California Chrome ran 1:47 2/5 over, he would have run a very fast time in the Santa Anita Derby.

But this year? Look at the other major 9 furlong stakes on the Santa Anita calendar:

The Santa Margarita, won by Fault in 1:50 2/5.

The Californian, won by Dr. Dorr in 1:49 4/5.

Note that both of those were big races won by older horses. Justify's 1:49 3/5 looks pretty good, doesn't it?

The guy is just trolling at this point.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

The guy is just trolling at this point.

Lots of hearts were broken when Mendelssohn went down.

[boys at tosconova]

the thing about these types of threads is people were already saying this before the preakness was even over.

i mean,...people were ramping up to say this w/o even knowing who's in the race as well. hey "look at me" i'm the first to make an epic prediction.

i'm not saying justy won't chit the bed, he might. nor am i saying the OP mo was to this.

i will say that the lone wolf went down in flames and is prolly a good reason why justy will prolly win. he should be allowed to post so he can build his case against justy once again as well so we can feel safe about betting him.......hahahahha

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

the thing about these types of threads is people were already saying this before the preakness was even over.

i mean,...people were ramping up to say this w/o even knowing who's in the race as well. hey "look at me" i'm the first to make an epic prediction.

i'm not saying justy won't chit the bed, he might. nor am i saying the OP mo was to this.

i will say that the lone wolf went down in flames and is prolly a good reason why justy will prolly win. he should be allowed to post so he can build his case against justy once again as well so we can feel safe about betting him.......hahahahha

To be clear, if Justify had won the Preakness by 7 with a 110 Beyer while not having difficult trip, I would probably still bet against him but I wouldn't have posted this thread.

To me, this Preakness spoke volumes about Justify's form cycle.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

To be clear, if Justify had won the Preakness by 7 with a 110 Beyer while not having difficult trip, I would probably still bet against him but I wouldn't have posted this thread.

To me, this Preakness spoke volumes about Justify's form cycle.

if he's spent he'll be vulnerable. don't know how much or to what extent he'll fade. or if it even fazed him

if there ever is a time to bet against him it could be here. but like i said in another thread. the other top 6 derby threats aren't even in here. and the ones in here he beat soundly by 8L>more in the KD

he could have it all cushy up front. as most/all of these will not be pushing like GM did.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

if he's spent he'll be vulnerable. don't know how much or to what extent he'll fade. or if it even fazed him

if there ever is a time to bet against him it could be here. but like i said in another thread. the other top 6 derby threats aren't even in here. and the ones in here he beat soundly by 8L>more in the KD

he could have it all cushy up front. as most/all of these will not be pushing like GM did.

I am not sold at this distance at all for Justify. I think he is probably best at a mile and just stretched his speed based on pure talent.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Couldn't disagree more.

1. He was likely somewhere between 9th and 17th best Derby Contender
2. He got one of the all time EXTREME examples of a brilliant impactful ride by a jockey
3. Even that brilliant ride was only possible because of the great setup and mediocre Derby crop (from memory Quality Road didn't run, I Want Revenge had some wierd scratch, and logical Pioneerof The Nile just wasn't your typical Baffert freakshow)
4. MTB then ran a non-threatening 2nd in the Preakness to edge out 'Musket Man'
5. MTB then made a gimmicky premature middle-move before flattening out to finish 3rd in an awful edition of the Belmont Stakes

Extreme example of a brilliant ride from a jockey that impacted a race and the right conditions to pull it off.

Yep. We'll have to agree to disagree.

I didn't say he was a strong contender going into the Derby. I said he was better than he looked on paper going in (based on figures or quality of race). To me, that's not even a debate. That Sunland race had a very hot pace. He made a sharp wide premature move into it and was certainly impacted negatively. So whatever he looked like going in on paper, he was better than that. I also said, the tough part was knowing he would get a lot better too (which he did)

We agree that he got a perfect ride in the Derby, but to me when you finish 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont you are demonstrating that you aren't some total fluke that sucked up off a killer pace in the Derby to never run well again (we've seen plenty of those).

You are saying you are a good horse that won the Derby with some racing luck but you weren't good enough to string a few races of that caliber together. There was nothing wrong with Musket Man at that time (who he beat in the Preakness) or Summer Bird (who he lost to partly because of the premature Belmont move).

The real issue with him to me was that he was a mediocre horse early in his career. The significant forward development into the Triple Crown kind of capped and peaked his development. He didn't get better after the Triple Crown series. If you don't get better than he was, older horses will trounce you later in the year. When he came back at 4 for Lukas he was basically done.

Take a horse like Bravazo. There is nothing wrong with him. He's a good horse. I assume he's going to keep getting better, but if he doesn't, he'll be running in ALW races at the end of the year. That doesn't mean he's not a pretty good 3yo now. Part of the equation is development.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

To be clear, if Justify had won the Preakness by 7 with a 110 Beyer while not having difficult trip, I would probably still bet against him but I wouldn't have posted this thread.

To me, this Preakness spoke volumes about Justify's form cycle.

I think I can sum it up fairly well.

1. Going into the Derby it looked like he could be "anything".

2. After the Derby it looked he had a chance to be really special given that he put away the other speeds against very fast fractions, won clear, and looked like there was more in the tank so early in his career.

3. After the Preakness it looked like he was a length better than Gold Magic with a similar pace trip (some might even argue being inside was a disadvantage for Good Magic) and a few lengths better the 2nd tier horses like Bravazo, Tenfold, and Lone Sailor.

I think the perception changed from "potential superhorse" to "best horse in the crop but not so superior he's unbeatable at Belmont".

Part of that is the record of some horses going into the Belmont and not sustaining their best form, the fact that's he's rushed so many races into a short period and could need a freshening, and that's he's been a speed horse that could be vulnerable going 12F if he runs with someone early.

You weight all that and come up with a line.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think I can sum it up fairly well.

1. Going into the Derby it looked like he could be "anything".

2. After the Derby it looked he had a chance to be really special given that he put away the other speeds against very fast fractions, won clear, and looked like there was more in the tank so early in his career.

3. After the Preakness it looked like he was a length better than Gold Magic with a similar pace trip (some might even argue being inside was a disadvantage for Good Magic) and a few lengths better the 2nd tier horses like Bravazo, Tenfold, and Lone Sailor.

I think the perception changed from "potential superhorse" to "best horse in the crop but not so superior he's unbeatable at Belmont".

Part of that is the record of some horses going into the Belmont and not sustaining their best form, the fact that's he's rushed so many races into a short period and could need a freshening, and that's he's been a speed horse that could be vulnerable going 12F if he runs with someone early.

You weight all that and come up with a line.

Sure...leave the hard part to us!

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The real issue with him to me was that he was a mediocre horse early in his career. The significant forward development into the Triple Crown kind of capped and peaked his development. He didn't get better after the Triple Crown series. If you don't get better than he was, older horses will trounce you later in the year. When he came back at 4 for Lukas he was basically done.

This ignores the very significant fact that Mine That Bird raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces prior to his New Mexico starts. Some would completely toss his entire record on those surfaces just as one would justifiably ignore the dirt races of a turf horse running in a turf race.

So all you had to go on was his 2 Sunland races, which, as you pointed out, were better than they looked. The problem with his form was the massive jump in class from those races to the Kentucky Derby. Basically, he was almost as much an X-factor as Animal Kingdom was prior to his Derby victory.

As far as Mine That Bird's post-Triple Crown career, again its nearly a complete toss. He had a major throat issue that impeded his effort in the West Virginia Derby and kept him out of the Travers. His two starts against elders were on a synthetic surface. And as you said, he was toast at 4 (not to mention he ran on turf in his comeback).

[thaskalos]

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?

+1

There's a chasm between "there are some legitimate arguments as to why MTB's form going into the Derby was somewhat better than it looked" and "MTB was always a top class horse and big-time Derby contender".

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Since when has a middle move into a hot pace in the Sunland Derby been indicative of a runaway victory in the Kentucky Derby?

It's definitely not.

But normally if you looked at a horse's PPs and saw him running Beyer figures in the low 80s, get beat in the Sunland Derby and run a Beyer figure of 80, you'd think he should be 500-1 or higher. If you knew the race was probably the equivalent of Beyer 90, then maybe you could think he's an improving horse you could throw into a super and hope he lucks into the bottom at a big price. I didn't use him, but I clearly remember watching the replay and saying to myself "this horse is better than he looks". He moved forward a lot.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Sure...leave the hard part to us!

haha

Well, right after the race I was 100% set to make a very big bet against him. Most of the time these Triple Crown candidates are very over bet to begin with. And since I feel the gap between him and some of the other horses is narrow enough for someone to turn the tables going 12F, I was going to spread a little and try to both just cash and/or crush the race.

Right now I've moderated my view a little because there's not that much speed in the race, Audible is out, and he seems to have bounced out of the Preakness in very good shape. He just had a terrific work today.

I'm still going to try to beat him, but the amount is shrinking.

The only way he'll be on top of any of my tickets is if I come up with someone at a big price and just save with him over that horse.

[thaskalos]

The Belmont exemplifies why this game is so difficult to beat. Even if you start out with the courageous move of crossing out the odds-on favorite...your handicapping work is just beginning. Theoretically, once you eliminate the odds-on choice from the top spot...you should be on profitable ground no matter WHICH of the remaining horses you choose to wager on. But I've never quite seen this theory being proven to my satisfaction...