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Old 11-22-2020, 02:16 PM   #106
Dahoss9698
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Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Besides the hilarity of his victim act, it's pretty amusing that he recently trashed me for actually having pre-race opinions.

I just consider the source:-)
Just another example of wanting to have it both ways.
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:28 PM   #107
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I think you don’t have strong opinions and like to cover all bases because you don’t like being wrong and have a hard time admitting when you are. You’re basically saying, regardless of how Princess Noor’s career shakes out, you are right.

The probabilities in horse racing aren't like a coin flip or roll of the dice. IMO, there is no definite right or wrong answer like getting 6/5 on a coin flip. That's true even after you know the result.

No matter what happens with PN I will never know who was right about the probabilities in her specific case. I have an opinion, may make another bet, and the result will prove nothing to me personally.

You are 100% right I don't have strong opinions very often. For me, it's a constant struggle to determine if I'm getting a square price. I'm always struggling with conflicting information and insights and how to weigh them. That's why I make so few bets. I prefer when the odds are screaming.

But again, when a race is over, I still don't know whether I was right or wrong regardless of the outcome, the trip got etc..

The only time I know anything is at the end of the year when I check my balance and see if did a good enough job overall of getting those probabilities right.

If you'd like to see a list of some of my most embarrassing losers to show I don't mind, I'd be glad to provide it but it will be my longest post ever.

We can start with my key bet in the Classic being trying to get By Standards into my tickets at 16-1. But I can do MUCH BETTER.

How how selling my Fender Telecaster for $200 (worth about $2000 now) to finance a $200 win bet on Capote in the Ky Derby. It doesn't get worse than that level of stupidity. It's impossible.
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:33 PM   #108
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Before the race Princess Noor has a big reputation based on a hefty price tag, workout reports and trainer speak. She had also looked good visually in her races, while running slow doing it. Sharps were salivating to bet against her because she was facing the best field by far she was going to face and she was lengths slower than them in her races. The cherry on top was she figured to be the favorite.
sums it up well
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:43 PM   #109
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No matter what happens with PN I will never know who was right about the probabilities in her specific case. I have an opinion, may make another bet, and the result will prove nothing to me personally.
This is where you and I have a disconnect regarding this horse.

She could develop into a monster next year and win the Triple Crown for all I know, because she is a well-meant 2yo that has flashed some talent and is theoretically in the hands of a trainer who's aim is to maximize her potential (I have my doubts about this seeing as how at this stage he typically puts ego in front of horse--see his dealings with his top 3yos this year if you need current examples).

But that is the long term perspective.

In the short-term, it was fairly obvious, regardless of a slight probability of being faster than she'd shown, that she was not at the same level as the top 2yo fillies in KY or NY. She wasn't, and it was confirmed on the race track.

She did not have a troubled trip and did not get beat in a competitive effort. She was absolutely knocked on her ass. Ergo, she was leading up to the race and in its execution not anywhere near the top of her class.

Doesn't mean she won't get there over time, but anyone who considered her in the BC Juvenile Fillies was proved dead wrong. I see no room for the "we'll never know" argument.

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Old 11-22-2020, 02:53 PM   #110
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Besides the hilarity of his victim act, it's pretty amusing that he recently trashed me for actually having pre-race opinions.
I'm not claiming victim. I think even you'll agree I waste too much time on message boards. There should at least be a reason.

The only reason I give it back to you sometimes (which is way out of character for me) is because you obviously have an issue with me that goes back years.

I've met about 5 people in my life I couldn't get along with at least reasonably well. Two were pool room thugs I used to gamble with that eventually died in jail, one was a head hunter that was trying too hard to get me job in my early 20s when I wanted to play horses, Jerry Brown - who made it personal when I was disagreeing with him on figures and pace too well on his message board, and you.

I told you. Please put me on ignore if you think I have nothing to contribute.
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Old 11-22-2020, 03:12 PM   #111
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This is where you and I have a disconnect regarding this horse.

She did not have a troubled trip and did not get beat in a competitive effort. She was absolutely knocked on her ass. Ergo, she was leading up to the race and in its execution not anywhere near the top of her class.

I understood the thinking going in and can see the results just like you can.

Where we differ is that I thought the probability that she could jump up was higher than the consensus of the more experienced handicappers I was reading on Twitter and elsewhere, but not as high as making her 1.90 -1.

I was probably more in the middle of the "toss her she's to slow" crowd and the people that were arguing "the figures don't matter you can see how good she is".

I also don't consider the result significant when it comes to those probabilities. It was one event in a lifetime that is sure to contain similar problems where many don't jump up but some do.
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Old 11-22-2020, 03:23 PM   #112
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How how selling my Fender Telecaster for $200 (worth about $2000 now) to finance a $200 win bet on Capote in the Ky Derby. It doesn't get worse than that level of stupidity. It's impossible.
I take it back. It was Cure the Blues. Capote was different story.
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Old 11-22-2020, 03:41 PM   #113
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But again, when a race is over, I still don't know whether I was right or wrong regardless of the outcome, the trip got etc..
Clearly we view things differently. Unless you get a poor trip, ride, etc once a race is over you know if you were right or wrong. The people that thought Princess Noor was too slow to win were right. Case closed. She had a clean trip and didn’t have it at the end.

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I understood the thinking going in and can see the results just like you can.

Where we differ is that I thought the probability that she could jump up was higher than the consensus of the more experienced handicappers I was reading on Twitter and elsewhere, but not as high as making her 1.90 -1.

I was probably more in the middle of the "toss her she's to slow" crowd and the people that were arguing "the figures don't matter you can see how good she is".

I also don't consider the result significant when it comes to those probabilities. It was one event in a lifetime that is sure to contain similar problems where many don't jump up but some do.
For me personally this is where you lose me and this is why I think you’re playing both sides. It’s a black and white thing in my eyes and you’re saying it’s gray. Clearly we won’t ever agree but I think you’re overthinking everything.
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Old 11-22-2020, 04:50 PM   #114
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A side story to the saga of Spielberg will play out next Saturday at Del Mar.

The horse that was just edged by luckless Spielberg in his maiden special win--Parnelli--is in another MSW going a flat mile. He was defeated a neck and 8 clear of the the 3rd who was coming off a 75-length drubbing in his previous start and is also entered in the Saturday race.

For completeness, Parnelli, who has been dueled into 2nd in 3 straight races, was also a neck back in his previous start while again well clear of 3rd. The winner was Hot Rod Charlie, the O'Neill colt that was 100-1 when running second to the Godolphin horse in the BC Juvenile.

The race drew 7 horses, so should be good for artificially inflating the Derby dreams of any horse able to win the race by open lengths. Parnelli almost assuredly will be odds-on favorite (he's already failed once in that capacity) unless the Bob Baffert first-timer has buzz behind him (based on his works, I doubt it).
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Old 11-30-2020, 05:38 PM   #115
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Clearly we view things differently. Unless you get a poor trip, ride, etc once a race is over you know if you were right or wrong. The people that thought Princess Noor was too slow to win were right. Case closed. She had a clean trip and didn’t have it at the end.

For me personally this is where you lose me and this is why I think you’re playing both sides. It’s a black and white thing in my eyes and you’re saying it’s gray. Clearly we won’t ever agree but I think you’re overthinking everything.
I definitely overthink.

When evaluating her statically, it's a 100% certainly that people that said she was too slow going in were correct. It was screaming on every set of figures out there.

Here's where we differ.

When projecting improvement or deterioration in form, imo that's a probability problem that is not answered by the result.

It's a problem you try to solve beforehand by looking at figure patterns, who the trainer is, how the horse has been working, how easily the horse has been winning, how lightly raced the horse is, what the pedigree is, where it is in its form cycle it is etc..

Setting aside his win probabilities, what were the chances Arrogate would improve his speed figure 17 points in the Travers?

It surely wasn't 100%. But that's what happened.

What were the chances Gamine would jump up from a 98 to a 110 under wraps in her 3rd start?

What were the chances American Pharoah would jump up from a 109 top and a 105 in his last out to a 120 in the BC Classic?

All 3 were very heavily hyped (Arrogate before the Travers, Pharoah before he even ran, and Gamine was called a superstar after her 2nd start)

So what were the chances a lightly raced filly trained by Baffert, that he was personally hyping pretty hard, that was winning under wraps, and working especially well would improve enough to win the Juvenile Filly?

I don't know for sure. But I know it wasn't zero.

My one and only disagreement with anyone is that IMHO the probability was higher than the "consensus" view.

We all came to the same conclusion in terms of betting, but we had different odds lines going in based on that probability.

And right now, I still only have some vague idea about what the probability was other than thinking it was higher than the consensus view. I also know she didn't do it, but that doesn't change my thinking anymore than calling a coin toss right or wrong changes it from 50%.
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Old 11-30-2020, 07:46 PM   #116
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Setting aside his win probabilities, what were the chances Arrogate would improve his speed figure 17 points in the Travers?

It surely wasn't 100%. But that's what happened.

What were the chances Gamine would jump up from a 98 to a 110 under wraps in her 3rd start?

What were the chances American Pharoah would jump up from a 109 top and a 105 in his last out to a 120 in the BC Classic?
If those were you're examples, then you were under-thinking it.

The 3 above were all on an ascending pattern Beyerwise. Arrogate high 80s to high 90s to cracking triple digits; Gamine high 80s to high 90s; American Pharoah 100-105-109. The latter was coming off a loss under less-than-perfect conditions but was sure to get his typical tailored pace scenario for the rebound in the BC Classic.

Meanwhile, Princess Noor had not improved an inch. Technically, she was dropping from a 79 in the DM Debutante to a 78 in the Oak Leaf in advance of the BC.

On sheer numbers alone, Princess Noor, with her high 70s average should not have been compared to horses that were clearly on the improve figure-wise and racing at a much more advanced level.
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Old 12-03-2020, 10:39 AM   #117
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On sheer numbers alone, Princess Noor, with her high 70s average should not have been compared to horses that were clearly on the improve figure-wise.
I think it's probably a mistake to be too literal with her figures.

She went from 76 to 79 winning easier (a forward move) to a 78 winning very easily again.

As I always say, most horses that win easily do so because they caught a soft field, favorable race flow, bias etc.. When they return and face a tougher pace, stiffer challenge against better horses etc.. their figures actually decline instead of rising.

However, there are some exceptional horses with the reserves to prompt a faster pace and finish just as well. That leads to a higher figure. Normally, you can tell what you are dealing with from the horse's overall record. Horses that always seem to get the job done usually have at least a little more in the tank (a few points). Others scream they don't and will decline.

One problem (at least for me) is that it's harder to know what you are dealing with when it's a very lightly raced horse. Some turn out to be duds when challenged. Some will jump up a little. Some will jump up a lot. "I" usually make an educated guess on the probabilities based on the connections, pedigree, works I have seen, what I've seen in the races etc..

Even though I agree with you about the details of some of those other horses, it's actually probably easier for a 2yo filly with 3 starts to jump from 79 winning easily to low 90s (which would be closer to PAR for a top 2yo filly) than it is for any horse to make a jump from 103 or 109 to 120 or for a 3yo filly to jump from 98 to 110. Those figures are killer good and quite rare.

As it was she improved from the 76-79 range to 85. That was our answer.

These are probability problems upon which two informed people are not always going to agree even when the final conclusion is the same in terms of what to bet.

My odds line was probably a little different than yours just as it would be in practically every other race we discussed. The results of many races give us more answers about these issues. The result of one race never does.
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Old 12-03-2020, 12:02 PM   #118
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I think it's probably a mistake to be too literal with her figures.

She went from 76 to 79 winning easier (a forward move) to a 78 winning very easily again.

As I always say, most horses that win easily do so because they caught a soft field, favo BLAH BLAH BLAH
We'll find out Saturday, at least a little. She'll have her hands full with Astute.
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Old 12-03-2020, 03:28 PM   #119
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However, there are some exceptional horses with the reserves to prompt a faster pace and finish just as well. That leads to a higher figure. Some turn out to be duds when challenged.
I understand you are willing to give Princess Noor another chance (which may never come if she doesn't start in another championship race), but the fact of the matter is in the BC she was a dud when challenged and did not finish well without a visible excuse.

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Even though I agree with you about the details of some of those other horses, it's actually probably easier for a 2yo filly with 3 starts to jump from 79 winning easily to low 90s (which would be closer to PAR for a top 2yo filly) than it is for any horse to make a jump from 103 or 109 to 120 or for a 3yo filly to jump from 98 to 110.
Certainly 2yos and early 3yos improve leaps and bounds (and 4yos and 5yo for that matter); but I'm not sure if we've seen any such singular improvements in a race like the BC Juvenile races.

Nyquist went from a 79 to an 89, but he had already run an 89 in the Best Pal and really, you might say his regression in the Norfolk was just what he needed as he actually had a tough race putting away archival Swipe which may have "battle hardened" him for the tougher BC. As it stands, they also changed his running style in the BC as the horse settled well off the pace (it's curious that they didn't repeat this in his later starts), so perhaps the change of tactics was the decider. Maybe blinkers off for Princess Noor will be a revelation of sorts.

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As it was she improved from the 76-79 range to 85. That was our answer.
I think it's probably a mistake to be too literal with her figures.

The running line for Princess Noor's BC doesn't really tell the story. Anyone who watched her from the 1/4 pole home could not think the horse ran a good race no matter what the final figure was. As I said elsewhere, in general I wouldn't trust figures for horses that were not competitive in the stretch. Perhaps her pace figures in the BC are more relevant than the overall figure if you are inclined to give her another chance.

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My odds line was probably a little different than yours just as it would be in practically every other race we discussed. The results of many races give us more answers about these issues. The result of one race never does.
Certainly the result of one race will at least decrease your probability estimate. It has to be much more rare for a horse to jump up 10 points or more when it already has a failure on its record, at least in the short term.
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Old 12-03-2020, 08:56 PM   #120
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I can see both sides on this one.
The numbers players had it right........they thought PN would lay an egg and she did.
They were correct.
Classhandicapper was thinking the eyeball test was good for her,along with the barn that never stops producing Champions.......can't fault him for having faith.
My take on PN is she hasn't beaten anybody good.......so that's my knock on her.
But a couple things have to be factored in with her,she's still green as a snake......if Baffert can get her to behave she'll probably improve for him.
And I learned a very long time ago,never hold one bad race against Fillies .......they could be out of focus for a day or two.
Like CJ said,the Starlit Saturday will answer some questions.
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