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03-20-2019, 02:29 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 90
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Who is shelling all of these 1-9 and 1-5 shots?
In the space of ten minutes on a slow day, I saw two horses go off at 1-9 odds and win. Luna Fortis (TAM R3) and Big Bad Zin (HOU R2). That's more 1-9 shots than I can remember in any month ten years ago. I would understand a champion in a low-level stakes or a returning strong horse in an allowance race written for it. But these races were both Maiden 25k claimers and one of the horses was 0 for 14.
According to my database, in 2018 217 entries closed at 1-9 (about a third of those at 1-20) and 1009 more entries at 1-5 (0.2 or 0.3 odds).
I know why the horses are getting shelled: big speed figure gaps to the next horse. What I don't know is who is doing it. Any thoughts?
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03-20-2019, 02:36 PM
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#2
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Hero
According to my database, in 2018 217 entries closed at 1-9 (about a third of those at 1-20) and 1009 more entries at 1-5 (0.2 or 0.3 odds).
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What's the hit rate and ROI on these huge bet downs....If you don't mind.
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03-20-2019, 03:23 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
What's the hit rate and ROI on these huge bet downs....If you don't mind.
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Hit rate is okay, ROI isn't much better than the track takeout.
1-9 or 1-20 - 217 plays, 175 won (80.6%) ROI 0.87
1-5 or 3-10 - 1009 plays,, 678 won (67.2%) ROI 0.84
While I'm at it:
2-5 909 plays, 556 won (61.2%) ROI 0.85
3-5 3206 plays, 1624 won (50.7%) ROI 0.83
4-5 3977 plays, 1802 wins (45.3%) ROI 0.84
Each of those includes the odds just below it for tracks that pay to the nickel per dollar (such as Canada or NYRA). Example: the 2-5 shots include horses that paid $2.80 and $2.70. That's how the database sorts the tote odds, and I'd need to extract the prices manually to adjust them.
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03-20-2019, 03:38 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,705
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I suspect connections with the horse, maybe owners?
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03-20-2019, 03:45 PM
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#5
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Hero
Hit rate is okay, ROI isn't much better than the track takeout.
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Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.
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03-20-2019, 04:14 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 90
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The stats for the 2-5 shots and higher are from the beginning of 2018 until the end of February this year or 14 months. Those for the 1-9 and 1-5 shots are for 2018 itself. I forgot to add the filter for the ones at higher odds. Also, I don't keep all tracks in the database: the bush and fairs tracks aren't in it.
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03-20-2019, 04:14 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.
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ROI may improve if you filter down to $2.20-min states (IA and WV), but ADWs don't like players that bet into a lot of negative pool situations, as the ADW is burdened with a portion of the minus pool shortfall, I believe. And I guess this thread is focused on win bets, not show, so may not apply.
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03-20-2019, 05:01 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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What's the ROI on playing them to show?
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03-21-2019, 05:33 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.
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They would need a lot more than that!
The $$ pools are so shallow there that the so-called “Whales” would get beached in a heart-beat.
Race #3 TAMPA BAY DNS – 2/20
Total WPS Pool: $93,922 (Combined!)
Exacta Pool - $61,722
Trifecta Pool - $38,548
Superfecta Pool - $24,594
Race #2 SAM HOUSTON – 2/20
Total WPS Pool: $44,859 (Combined!)
Exacta Pool - $40,210
Trifecta Pool - $30,823
Superfecta Pool - $24,222
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03-22-2019, 10:14 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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don't know much about it. but with the proliferation of an underground economy and drug money, wouldn't that horse betting markets be an ideal mechanism?
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03-23-2019, 11:02 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Lakehurst, NJ
Posts: 1,035
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How can it be bridge-jumpers when they would be betting to show rather than to win?
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03-26-2019, 11:22 PM
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#12
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Tampa
I watched this race last weekend. He loaded at 1-5 and went to 1-9 when the gate opened. lol,
61K in the win pool. Maybe a late 10,000 would take him 1-5 to 1-9 in a jump?
This is my weed math.
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04-09-2019, 04:54 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
What's the ROI on playing them to show?
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Place and show ROI are a little better than win: 0.88 and 0.89 respectively.
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04-17-2019, 03:39 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston
How can it be bridge-jumpers when they would be betting to show rather than to win?
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pretty sure most of the overseas rebate shops don't rebate place and show so that's probably why they are betting to win
I know betonline.ag doesn't rebate place and show
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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04-20-2019, 12:12 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: LNN
Posts: 524
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Do syndicates even bother with 1-9's?
My first instinct was just some mad bomber throwin down stacks
__________________
They didn't take your money...You paid for lessons
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