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View Poll Results: Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. 19 22.89%
No, I'm gonna use him but spread 28 33.73%
Toss 33 39.76%
Doesn't run 3 3.61%
Voters: 83. This poll is closed

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Old 05-20-2018, 12:18 PM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?

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Old 05-20-2018, 12:45 PM   #2
MadVindication
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I think he will take the triple crown, but will bet against him modestly. I had Bravazo as the one to beat him in the preakness. Probably will do the same thing, odds depending.
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Old 05-20-2018, 12:50 PM   #3
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I will not include Justify on a single ticket.
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Old 05-20-2018, 12:54 PM   #4
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I am just going to watch the replay.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:05 PM   #5
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Bravazo isnít much? Hahaha okay
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:06 PM   #6
Robert Fischer
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If you see him put in 1 good work between now and the Belmont, he'll be a 'single'(in the sense that you won't want to bet against him, but there's no bet unless there's a false favorite in preceding legs).

If he can only gallop up to the Belmont, and has more hoof work done, take a shot or pass.

He won the Preakness on about 80%. He put away Good Magic at about 80%. There's talk about Bravazo or Tenfold 'almost winning'. At no point did they look like a winner or were even involved in the race that Justify and Good Magic were running. They sucked up and got closer near the wire and would have needed the finish line to get up and run away. (Kinda like Audible's so-called competitive race with Good Magic in the Derby).
He did all this after running the Derby on a bad hoof, coming out 'off'(lame may be technically correct, but is a poor word choice in this context) and then being medicated, and having his hoof reconstructed, being shipped, and limited to jogs and slow gallops with only 2 weeks time.

If you see him put in a good work before the Belmont, there's a good chance that he's as close to 100% as he's been since the optional claimer race in March.

He's got 3 weeks, a better hoof, less shipping and medicating, a chance to work and hold condition, and the added distance is only going to HELP him. The other entrants better all enter a rabbit, because he's going to control the pace at 12f without exerting himself.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:34 PM   #7
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The race comes down to who or how many are going to go with Justify from the start?
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:38 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
The race comes down to who or how many are going to go with Justify from the start?

I think it simply comes down to wheter Justify can 'get' 12F.



Regardless of pace or heat or anybody getting after him, he has repelled all that thus far.



The only question remaining is 12 panels IMO.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:39 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195 View Post
Bravazo isnít much? Hahaha okay
I really like him too. I'm hoping that his inconsistencies still make him a longer odds horse for the belmont but it's unlikely now with the field so far. I want another Awesome Again / Ghostzapper pedigree to race against him and Justify in the Belmont but I don't know if that's possible or even if there is a contender like that.

Justify has proven himself again and again. He only had a narrow margin of victory because that's how he ran the race. Mike Smith can press for more at any strategic point. Whoever wants to be the rabbit will sacrifce showing up in the money and then we see the same thing as the Preakness (exciting this time but will be boring for the belmont). I'd rather watch a race where Justify just takes the lead, sets his pace, wins easily and see how it goes in the last bit of the race with the other horses proving for 2 and 3rd honestly. Because there's more to the race than the race for first place.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:41 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
If you see him put in 1 good work between now and the Belmont, he'll be a 'single'(in the sense that you won't want to bet against him, but there's no bet unless there's a false favorite in preceding legs).

If he can only gallop up to the Belmont, and has more hoof work done, take a shot or pass.

He won the Preakness on about 80%. He put away Good Magic at about 80%. There's talk about Bravazo or Tenfold 'almost winning'. At no point did they look like a winner or were even involved in the race that Justify and Good Magic were running. They sucked up and got closer near the wire and would have needed the finish line to get up and run away. (Kinda like Audible's so-called competitive race with Good Magic in the Derby).
He did all this after running the Derby on a bad hoof, coming out 'off'(lame may be technically correct, but is a poor word choice in this context) and then being medicated, and having his hoof reconstructed, being shipped, and limited to jogs and slow gallops with only 2 weeks time.

If you see him put in a good work before the Belmont, there's a good chance that he's as close to 100% as he's been since the optional claimer race in March.

He's got 3 weeks, a better hoof, less shipping and medicating, a chance to work and hold condition, and the added distance is only going to HELP him. The other entrants better all enter a rabbit, because he's going to control the pace at 12f without exerting himself.
This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:46 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.
Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:46 PM   #12
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I will bet him to place like I did in the Preakness & received the same money as a win bettor.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:47 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
This is ridiculous. If the Preakness had been 1 1/4 miles, Justify would have lost big.



Doesn't work that way.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:54 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by MadVindication View Post
Mike Smith can alter his strategy to wherever the finish line is. Everyone knows where the finish line is and can empty the tank accordingly. It doesn't matter, Justify is still a formidable, talented horse and every horse has to push themselves the extra distance. There's nothing proven by being "almost beaten."
Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.

EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.

Last edited by dilanesp; 05-20-2018 at 01:57 PM.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:59 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Justify's winning margin was due to him being tired. Mike Snith was NOT trying to conserve the horse.

If he had been, it was stupid because he almost lost. But Smith isn't that stupid.

This horse is going to look like War Emblem in 3 weeks. He is at the end of his cycle. No bleeping way we get a TC winner.

EDIT: I suppose the only thing I do buy is that it is possible the off tracks are dulling his performances and he will run awesome on a fast track. I wouldn't count on it though.
War Emblem was a form cycle issue and not a speed horse going to his nose out of the break, first take I have heard like that.
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