Interest rate increase next week: Housing is dead

[JustRalph]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ng-11663097227

I am watching houses being discounted 50-75k here in the Houston area, from their original listing price. My what a difference a year makes.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ng-11663097227

I am watching houses being discounted 50-75k here in the Houston area, from their original listing price. My what a difference a year makes.

Housing demand is still high. Very high.

I'd be curious to know the median price changes the Houston market has seen over the past 5 years.

My guess is people can live those price reductiond.

[JustRalph]

I just read that mortgage apps are as low as 1979

Any truth to that? That’s your business right?

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I just read that mortgage apps are as low as 1979

Any truth to that? That’s your business right?

Applications are down quite a but a lot of that seems to be driven by pessimism and the stupid amount of cash purchasers out there.


At least that's what we're seeing in Michigan.

My volume is currently about 25% higher than 2019 so it's not as noticeable but it is there.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Applications are down quite a but a lot of that seems to be driven by pessimism and the stupid amount of cash purchasers out there.


At least that's what we're seeing in Michigan.

My volume is currently about 25% higher than 2019 so it's not as noticeable but it is there.

Good for you! I am glad your not getting hurt

Just for the record, my restaurant is back to 96% of 2019.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Good for you! I am glad your not getting hurt

Just for the record, my restaurant is back to 96% of 2019.

Is that 96% able to be taken at face value? If that is dollar volume and you had to increase prices it would need to be adjusted. How about overhead, compared to 2019? I think I recall you had a lot of supply chain issues and were scrabbling all over the place trying to make up for delivery shortages. If my memory serves me correctly you spent a day hunting down every turkey in the local area among other things.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Good for you! I am glad your not getting hurt

Just for the record, my restaurant is back to 96% of 2019.

Honestly for a food service I'd say that's pretty good as well.

We've had to adapt a bit. Rolled out ARMs in Q1, I designed a new 2nd Mortgage product for us in the spring and just had a meeting about reworking our fee structure offer better rates.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Is that 96% able to be taken at face value? If that is dollar volume and you had to increase prices it would need to be adjusted. How about overhead, compared to 2019? I think I recall you had a lot of supply chain issues and were scrabbling all over the place trying to make up for delivery shortages. If my memory serves me correctly you spent a day hunting down every turkey in the local area among other things.

That includes a price increase. It’s a dollars to donuts comparison. It’s also based on meal counts.

Supply chain issues still exist, but we have brought on 2 extra suppliers and a third starts in about a month. So it’s getting better, but I’m still buying some things retail, mostly dairy.

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Good for you! I am glad your not getting hurt

Just for the record, my restaurant is back to 96% of 2019.

Not that I know your business, a friend I shoot with owns a popular restaurant said things are better because so many turned the key resulting in a slightly better labor pool willing to work in restaurants. He said keeping staff for two locations was near impossible, he was able to keep people from the location he closed. Then added that there are many buildings empty that might have been doing fair before Covid and are now gone.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

That includes a price increase. It’s a dollars to donuts comparison. It’s also based on meal counts.

Supply chain issues still exist, but we have brought on 2 extra suppliers and a third starts in about a month. So it’s getting better, but I’m still buying some things retail, mostly dairy.

I am wondering if some of the spot clean outs of arbitrary items in the grocery store are from the likes of your kind. I wonder if the owner of the local Golden Corral was seen with 300 pounds of breakfast sausage in his shopping cart. I ended up grabbing the last two one pound chubs of a brand I never tried.



People wig out here when storms are coming, even if they are supposed to hit 100's of miles away. They mostly clean out the dairy items and bread.
If I see next to no milk or eggs left, I know there is a storm coming. I can judge upcoming weather by the dairy case.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by fast4522

Not that I know your business, a friend I shoot with owns a popular restaurant said things are better because so many turned the key resulting in a slightly better labor pool willing to work in restaurants. He said keeping staff for two locations was near impossible, he was able to keep people from the location he closed. Then added that there are many buildings empty that might have been doing fair before Covid and are now gone.

The labor pool has turned just recently. All the Covid money has finally dried up.

[Cuffdaddy]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

The labor pool has turned just recently. All the Covid money has finally dried up.

That combined with increased costs for virtually everything needed to survive has forced them back to searching for work.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Cuffdaddy

That combined with increased costs for virtually everything needed to survive has forced them back to searching for work.

Agreed.

I’m hearing of several evictions in the area too. Including 2 of my employees.

[Cuffdaddy]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Agreed.

I’m hearing of several evictions in the area too. Including 2 of my employees.

Yes, forgot about the eviction moratorium ending and it took a bit for that money to dry up with most probably never paying it back.

[JustRalph]

These guys gotta stop stealing my Schtick

https://www.newsmax.com/us/housing-m...17/id/1087924/

It’s just over the horizon