Importance of last race

[tlinetrader]

I'd be very interested in opinions concerning the importance and proper weighting of a horses last race performance relative to races two or three (or more back). I'm assuming the last race was similar to todays as far as surface, sprint vs. route, fairly recent (say 45 days) and without a substantial change in class. I'm experimenting with ratings based on averages of recent races and am wondering how much more important the last race really is. I'm not referring to races where there's significant trouble indicated in the comment.

Thanks

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by tlinetrader

I'd be very interested in opinions concerning the importance and proper weighting of a horses last race performance relative to races two or three (or more back). I'm assuming the last race was similar to todays as far as surface, sprint vs. route, fairly recent (say 45 days) and without a substantial change in class. I'm experimenting with ratings based on averages of recent races and am wondering how much more important the last race really is. I'm not referring to races where there's significant trouble indicated in the comment.

Thanks

Any factor that you can imagine can become valuable for betting purposes. A scenario like: “gray horse, running the first weekend after a full moon, for a trainer whose name starts with a vowel” can very well become significant for betting purposes assuming that the crowd has come to believe in it and over (or under) bet it accordingly!

Having said this, the last race of the horse is important for the bettor, because it affects the decisions of the crowd disproportionately to its real impact in the final outcome, creating the conditions for inefficient pools that can be exploited by following the proper strategies.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I wouldn't lump a group of races together to get a rating. Everything in this game to me revolves around individuality. The horse, a race, and the player. Plus looking at the individual characteristics of a race help you understand the individual nature of the horse. Form interpretation is an art. And every artist is an individual in his interpretation. Look at it this way and over time you will trust your own judgement.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I wouldn't lump a group of races together to get a rating. Everything in this game to me revolves around individuality. The horse, a race, and the player. Plus looking at the individual characteristics of a race help you understand the individual nature of the horse. Form interpretation is an art. And every artist is an individual in his interpretation. Look at it this way and over time you will trust your own judgement.

Good post

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I wouldn't lump a group of races together to get a rating. Everything in this game to me revolves around individuality. The horse, a race, and the player. Plus looking at the individual characteristics of a race help you understand the individual nature of the horse. Form interpretation is an art. And every artist is an individual in his interpretation. Look at it this way and over time you will trust your own judgement.

Well said Cincyhorseplayer !!! Good stuff!

[LottaKash]

I don't necessarily use a horses last running line/race as "the indicator" of that horse's ability, but I do use the last race to get a pulse on, you could say, if, on how it may be feeling lately, and whether based on that last race, that he is still in, or not in, shape enough, to carry his ability to his estimated limits in his next adventure trackside...

A horse's last race; I use it as a gauge of current form in that regard, as it is printed in the current past performances..., But that is where the workers who take the time to do replays can gain a huge edge when assessing a horse's current form...

Ironically, me personally, I don't watch very many replays, and yet I have become quite adept at interpreting the past performance running lines and use it to good advantage, especially the most recent line, as printed.. I think and thank the fact that I have found (hooray!) and use, quite accurate "pace patterns" in my handicapping now ,and that may have been the reason the marriage of my chart reading and pace interpretation, is still on a hoot of a honeymoon...

I think "that marriage" is what "all handicappers" have been, or still are in search of..

Pace First, then the most current line...

[2low]

I would think looking at a horse's PPs and recording how much the speed rating moves from race-to-race would be a pretty good indicator of how much each race meant to next race, and so how much last race means to today's race.

If a horse is all over the map, it probably means this horse is inconsistent and has no real performance pattern. This could be good if one of those herky jerky changes could be enough to win. If the ratings have a sort of smooth rolling up and down track, I would probably be more comfortable relying on last race to predict a range of performances in the next race, which again could be good or bad.

I have no idea what I'm talking about

But, I am developing a theory like this around some of the things I look at. The thought is, how much would a horse have to improve in "FACTOR X" in order to have a good chance of winning? Does this horse show any history of improving from one race to the next that much? Yes? Contender. No? Not a contender.

[lamboguy]

if you are a handicapper, i would say that every race is important to make your wagering decision. it is your money that you have at risk and you should do whatever is comfortable.

[thaskalos]

In order to take advantage of the crowd's overreaction to the last race of these horses...an aspect of my handicapping excludes the last running line TOTALLY. This technique helps me to "balance things out"...and to avoid the mistake of over-relying on the last race.

I don't often see horses repeating their last race.

[KidCapper]

I think a lot depends on the quality of the race. For instance, if a horse wins its last race in a restricted claiming race such a nw2l, I will toss that horse completely out of the win spot next out on the the jump up to say nw3l. Cheap claimers just don't win back-to-back very often.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by KidCapper

I think a lot depends on the quality of the race. For instance, if a horse wins its last race in a restricted claiming race such a nw2l, I will toss that horse completely out of the win spot next out on the the jump up to say nw3l. Cheap claimers just don't win back-to-back very often.

what happens if the horse that ran second in that race comes back to win his next start? do you still toss that win?

in this game you are only going to lose your money if you are not finding horses that will make improvements from one race to the other. everyone can read a form or the numbers and see the horses with the best chances. you got to find the horse that people leave out of their equations to win at this pari-mutual game. easier said than done though/

[NorCalGreg]

If I may, allow me to weigh in here..........

The gentleman asked how much predictive value there was in the last race paceline.

I've been laughed at, called a charlatan...and quite frankly dismissed by pace "experts" simply because I use ONLY the last pace figs in my PLATINUM program. (my best-seller, BTW)

I don't really care what a horse did 3-4 races back. How can that possibly be MORE PREDICTIVE than the last?

Naysayers constantly ask "What if the horse had gate trouble last" or a similar question.

My answer is: "Good chance the horse will probably have gate trouble again" ...or whatever "trouble" he encountered. It's just not that big a factor, IMO.

I do use the last 2 E-1 calls---but only to determine early speed. If the horse hasn't been up close E-1 of last 2...he's eliminated.

I also use best-of-last-2 speed ratings. But as far as pace figures...the last race will be fine, thank you very much.

As far as the the last race being overbet--true. But the last race PACE FIGS are not. If the horse sizzled early--then died late--can be a very good sign.

A method we use is to find the top-2 E-1 figs of the day--after the horses pass an early-speed screen. I use the top-2 at various HIGH EARLY SPEED tracks--like Aqueduct.

I don't claim to be able to compete with the professional pace programs..this is very simple. Call it the "poor man's Black Magic"

Here's two winners in the past couple weeks, using this top-2 last E-1 of the entire card:

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by KidCapper

I think a lot depends on the quality of the race.

I agree with this.

That's what my studies indicate about higher quality races. If you the know the horse's trip, whether the pace had any impact, and whether any track bias was at play, I think it's best to focus on a horse's last race. High quality horses hold their form better. You can raise the win% a bit by looking at multiple races, but the value tends to decline because most people are looking at a horse's overall record and consistency. They will favor the more consistent horse when two are similar off their last race.

The value is in knowing when the last race was better or worse than it looks on paper. There's even more value in knowing when each of the last two were better/worse than they look on paper.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In order to take advantage of the crowd's overreaction to the last race of these horses...an aspect of my handicapping excludes the last running line TOTALLY. This technique helps me to "balance things out"...and to avoid the mistake of over-relying on the last race.

I don't often see horses repeating their last race.

Brilliant. Seriously. Takes care of alot of headaches.

Problem (or not) is with young horses that will improve overnight or when the big improvement is directly associated to a trainer change and continues to be under the care of the new trainer.

[jasperson]

I use a program that I have written that only uses the last race and it runs about 30% winners. If I eliminate maiden and turf races it is marginal profitable. I don't always bet its selection because there are other considerations in my handicapping. It helps me to know that a horse as 30% chance of winning this race based on the last race. You have to look at the last race to see if he or other horses in the race might have had advantages or
disadvantages that must be considered.