College bowl games

[46zilzal]

Alabama/Michigan ....CLOSE to the same feeling of Tom Durkin's account of the 2002 Test at Saratoga....This race doesn't DESERVE a loser!"

[46zilzal]

Where did the Washington Huskies defense go in the 4th quarter yesterday: coffee break?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Washington has to be one of the most underrated teams in recent memory.

They have been underdogs in 3 of their last 4 games, and are underdogs against Michigan for all the marbles.

I'm still befuddled as to how they were 10 point underdogs in the Pac12 Championship game against Oregon.

I think Michigan matches up very well against them, but the 'experts' have been saying that for the last half of the season wagering against UW.

An interesting fact I learned today, is that Washington is the first team in college football history to have 10 straight games all decided by 10 points or less, and to have won them all. May have to take the Money Line on the Huskies against Michigan.

I believe that those who don't recognize which is the best college football team in the country are in for a big surprise on Jan 8th.
I'll stand by my original sentiments posted on 12/10, and play accordingly.

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’ll start off with the Washington vs Texas game (although I had hoped that Michigan would have made this bowl game vs WA more interesting but based on the committee’s choice of moving Alabama into the final 4 that wasn’t going to happen).

So, they had 12&0 WA as a 10 Pt underdog vs 11&1 OR and they won! Now they have 13&0 WA as a 4 Pt underdog to 12&1 TX. I wonder how the WA players feel about that. So, WA beat a top team like OR twice. So why can’t they beat another top team like TX twice (BTW They beat them in last year’s Alamo bowl).

I’m leaning toward Michigan vs Alabama in the Rose bowl but not sure why they’re only favored by 1.5 Pts. (Perhaps the MI QB is still having an injury issue). If he’s in I think the spread should be at least -7 Pts. If not, then the current spread might be accurate. They might prove me wrong, but as many feel I believe AL shouldn’t even be in the final 4, but that’s another story.

So, if things work out as suggested and it’s WA vs MI in the final game, I believe WA should be favored by as least 3 pts and will win the Championship.

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[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Where did the Washington Huskies defense go in the 4th quarter yesterday: coffee break?

I think they were in that "prevent" defense, playing soft. And you know what that usually prevents, right? They also had some poor clock management and poor clock "luck" with a player injury, as pointed out by the color announcer.

When the Horns had 1st and goal with 15 seconds left, I thought they'd score. But they had a couple of poor play calls, and of course the shorter field is a bit easier to defend. The Texas QB pretty much choked. Looks like they'll rely on Arch Manning for the next year or two.

[Parkview_Pirate]

I did better than usual this year, as I normally only hit about 50% in bowl games. I played in a pool picking 10 bowl games (side, total or both), and choked on my last couple of picks, and faded out of the money. Took Liberty +17.5, so as A/C D/C once sang, "I got shot down <with the> in Flames". Argh, argh.

Picking either a side or total for the 41 bowl games, I had 28 wins (68%) and 13 losses. With sides I went 18-8 (69%) and with totals I went 10-5 (67%). I'll be going through my season totals and see how I did picking 10 games each week, college, pros or totals, but I think I was around 63% or so.....might need to move to Reno.... I do much better at pigskins than the ponies.

I lean towards the Huskies next Monday, but I won't argue that Michigan looks pretty solid. Unusual year with the Big 10 having a great team, and the SEC struggling a bit in many of their bowls. Next year, with the musical conference realignments, it'll be less attractive to me as tradition apparently means nothing to the bean counters. I don't consider Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State or Rutgers part of the "Big 10". To think I went to a school that belongs to a conference where they can't even count to 14....ugh. That's even worse than my alma mater picking the least ferocious rodent as their mascot (Gopher). D'oh!

[Vince P 777]

I was confused as to why Washington (Penix) didn't simply take the snap, move back a couple of yards, wait a second or two and then kneel down in their last couple of plays.

By handing off there was a risk of a fumble as Texas was trying to create a fumble.

What did I miss?

Vince P

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Vince P 777

I was confused as to why Washington (Penix) didn't simply take the snap, move back a couple of yards, wait a second or two and then kneel down in their last couple of plays.

By handing off there was a risk of a fumble as Texas was trying to create a fumble.

What did I miss?

Vince P

You didn't miss anything. Dumb move by the HC, who almost gave the game to us. By pulling that stunt he may have lost the #1 rb. His knee was the size of a grapefruit at the end of the game (on a cart)

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

do yourself a favor, don't bother laying the money line on this mismatch. Michigan will masacre this team and the points are not gonna mean a thing. Washington has not faced a team close to this that has such an interior strength in both the offensive and defensive lines. the quarterback for Alabama was on the ground last night plenty, the guy for Washington will be on the ground even more than him.

you got to love it, Michigan gets less respect than Rodney Dangerfield had his entire life.

I'll pick Michigan but it's going to be close.

Texas secondary was thin. Very thin. Michigan safeties will give far better support on deeper routes.

Interior DL for Michigan doesn't stuff the run as well as Texas does, but they're still good and will provide a better pass rush. Penix won't have as much time vs Michigan

Washington almost lost to Texas. Their run defense is suspect. Take away a butt fumble and Washington actually loses that game. If Texas had committed to the run early it's very possible Washington defense gets worn down late. Michigan should commit to a physical dog fight.

Worthy (Texas star wr) was 70% at best from his injuries. Without that threat, texas was easy to defend given ewers lack of arm strength/ zip between the hashes deep. Michigan can beat their secondary deep I believe, but the physical running game needs to set that up

The huskies are fun to watch. Get my respect, but their strengths matched up with Texas weaknesses. Not sure that's the case vs Michigan

[lamboguy]

i am thinking that the line on this game is way off. they have Michigan as a 2-1 favorite, i have them as a 5-1.

on the subject of lines, and let me qualify this and say i am not betting the election. they have this election as a pick it right now. i see it as the Republican, and i mean any Republican a 15-1 favorite vs. the Democrat, and i mean any Democrat. i don't care if the S+P triples from here, the price of gasoline goes down to $1 per per gallon or if the conflicts all over the world all resolve peacefully. the Democrats are going down in this Presidential election. the only possible and highly unlikely thing that could throw a monkey wrench would be a very strong 3rd party candidate that takes votes away.

[CheckMark]

Here's where my lines are sitting at for this game

Team PowerRating ConSpread/ConTotal
Washington 89.50 55.33
Michigan 97.75 -8.25

Here's where Vegas currently is sitting for this game
Washington 56.5
Michigan-4.5


So right now no plays here as I need a +4 point edge to make an official play. Anything under a 4-point edge would be considered a lean.
For the spread, it is at a +3.75 edge, and the total is at a -1.17 edge.

So lean plays on Michigan-4.5 and Under 56.5

Best of luck to all! Going to be a great game

[Nitro]

Aside from my overall gut feelings about the championship game on Monday I’ve also taken a closer look at these two teams from the perspective of what I believe to be their most relevant past match-ups. Although my feelings are based primarily on my overall visual impressions of the games I’ve watched, I thought by taking it to a more analytical approach that I might find something that I’ve missed.

I didn’t plan on looking at all their match-ups. Just those which might provide me with some recognizable biases in either positive or negative tendencies. I would relate it to a typical handicapping exercise of comparing horses by looking at how they fared against certain viable competitors in previous races and how those competitors performed in subsequent races.

I’ll start off with #1 ranked Michigan and look at the 2 quality ranked teams that most sports analysts claim were their toughest foes: Ohio State and Penn State. During the regular season they first beat #10 Penn State 24 to 15 and then beat #8 Ohio State 30 to 24. I’ll also add unranked Maryland because they had a decent offense and played Michigan tough in a close 31 to 24 loss.
So how did those competitors fair in their recent bowl games?
#10 Penn State loses to a #11 ranked Mississippi (Ole Miss) 25 to 38.
#8 Ohio State loses to a #9 ranked Missouri 3 to 13.
Unranked Maryland trounces Auburn 31 to 13.
I mention this game only because Auburn was a 4th down away from beating #5 ranked Alabama in a very close game and losing only 27 to 24. As a side note, unranked Auburn also gave Georgia all they could handle in a 27 to 20 loss. You be the judge about how tough #5 Alabama and #6 Georgia really are especially considering how Auburn also got trounced by unranked New Mexico State 31 to 10.

On to the #2 ranked Washington team many might agree that their toughest regular season opponents were #8 Oregon, #14 Arizona and unranked USC. During the regular season they first beat #14 Arizona 31 to 24. They then beat #8 Oregon (in their 1st meeting) 36 to 33, and later beat unranked USC 52 to 42 (in an offensive showcase). In the PAC championship game they once again beat #8 Oregon 34 to 31.

So how did those competitors fair in their recent bowl games?
Unranked USC beats #16 ranked Louisville 42 to 28 (offense trumps the defense).
#14 Arizona beats #12 Oklahoma 38 to 24, (BTW #12 Oklahoma beat #3 Texas during the regular season).
#8 Oregon beats previously undefeated #18 ranked Liberty 46 to 6.

So, in conclusion my gut feeling seems to be right in line with the comparison of the previous competitors of these 2 very good and undefeated teams. I still believe Washington should be favored by at least 3 points.
Oh, I nearly forgot to mention that I think many Michigan fans might still have bad memories from that 2020 game against Indiana, where Michael Penix carved up the defense for 342 yards and two touchdowns and winning 38 to 24.
Will history repeat itself? .
In any case, I’m looking forward to a very competitive, exciting, and profitable game.
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[ElKabong]

Huskies OL is very good, very coordinated. Their biggest test is coming up

Q: What is the goal of UWs OL?

A:An erect Penix

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

I'll pick Michigan but it's going to be close.

Texas secondary was thin. Very thin. Michigan safeties will give far better support on deeper routes.

Interior DL for Michigan doesn't stuff the run as well as Texas does, but they're still good and will provide a better pass rush. Penix won't have as much time vs Michigan

Washington almost lost to Texas. Their run defense is suspect. Take away a butt fumble and Washington actually loses that game. If Texas had committed to the run early it's very possible Washington defense gets worn down late. Michigan should commit to a physical dog fight.

Worthy (Texas star wr) was 70% at best from his injuries. Without that threat, texas was easy to defend given ewers lack of arm strength/ zip between the hashes deep. Michigan can beat their secondary deep I believe, but the physical running game needs to set that up

The huskies are fun to watch. Get my respect, but their strengths matched up with Texas weaknesses. Not sure that's the case vs Michigan

Knew Michigan matched up well and was a better all around team, didn't think it would get out of hand late.

[rastajenk]

Penix stunk. Some wide-open potential big gainers...no chance at making a catch. Not just a little off; big-time misses.

[Nitro]

Congratulations to the entire Michigan team for a game well played.

Washington just couldn’t get any momentum going offensively due to a solid Michigan defense.