Bet to Win and Place, or just to Win?

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

Yesterday (9/7) in the last race at Kentucky Downs, I had two longshots I liked and bet them both to win. The 4 and the 12 were my longshot plays at odds of 37-1 and 67-1,respectively.

I also used both of them in my exactas with the horse I figured to be the key in hitting the board (and likely involved in the exacta), the 1 horse.

The exacta came in 1 - 4. I used the 1 as my key with 3 horses (4,10,12) in a $2 key box, and also had a $2 3-horse box (1,4,12). So it was a nice hit and I was pretty happy. But it would have paid a lot better if the 4 horse won and my win bet would have made it an amazing day.

But after the race I was I was looking at my wagers and asked myself why I never bet to place? I shun show betting but maybe betting to place needs to be considered because the 4 horse paid $22.38 to place and I only bet her to win.

So I just wanted to ask if anyone here bets to win AND place and what your thoughts are on if it's worth making place bets.

Congratulations on cashing in this race.

I also bet the and both to win and an exacta /.

I saw in the charts the had the lead in the stretch and was caught.

I excepted it as another great bet-- bad result.

I did collect on the $80 pick three.

For the day I bet $543 and lost $47.85.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yes...to feel good about cashing a ticket when your longshot finishes second in the race. "Feeling good" is important to our psychological makeup...and psychology plays a huge role in gambling. Some people need added enhancements in order to keep them psychologically strong...and this doesn't necessarily make them "long term losers". I know a horseplayer for many years, and he bets only to place...and he wins! I have suggested to him that he might make more money overall if he bet only to win...but he tells me that he sleeps better this way. Sound sleep is also very important in this game...

Results speak for themselves

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yes...to feel good about cashing a ticket when your longshot finishes second in the race. "Feeling good" is important to our psychological makeup...and psychology plays a huge role in gambling. Some people need added enhancements in order to keep them psychologically strong...and this doesn't necessarily make them "long term losers". I know a horseplayer for many years, and he bets only to place...and he wins! I have suggested to him that he might make more money overall if he bet only to win...but he tells me that he sleeps better this way. Sound sleep is also very important in this game...

This is a really good point. You can do the "right thing" but if you lose often enough because of it, maybe your confidence gets shaken to the point you start doing the "wrong thing".

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by castaway01

This is a really good point. You can do the "right thing" but if you lose often enough because of it, maybe your confidence gets shaken to the point you start doing the "wrong thing".

That's right!

The "right thing" is only profitable if we keep doing it for the long term. The trick is to keep our confidence level intact for the long term...and that isn't an easy task.

The history books are mistaken when they credit Socrates for advising people to "Know Thyselves". The truth is that this aphorism originated from an unknown Athenian who earned his living by betting on the chariot races in ancient Athens. He kept anonymous because he believed that "fame" to a gambler was usually followed by a jail sentence.

[Jeff P]

Take a deep dive into a year's worth of data and you'll likely notice every horse has a matrix of both negative and positive hidden attributes. (Call it the attributes matrix for purposes of this post.)

While every horse has an attributes matrix - no two horses have attribute matrices that are identical.

Also, no two players have identical methods of play.

Your best get-able overlays will have different attribute matrices than mine and vice versa.

It follows place wagering on your get-able overlays will have different results than mine and vice versa. (Fyi, my place wagering results suggest I should avoid the place pool full stop.)

I say this, not because my place results on get-able overlays are dismal (they're not.)

I say this because of what my place results look like after applying some critical thinking.

As in: What do my place results look like when my get-able overlay fails to win the race?

The sql query results below show 2023 ytd results for a method of play/thought process I devised about a month ago.

Fyi, a key part of the sql expression below has been removed because I have visions of scaling up handle volume should this method of play/thought process continue to perform well going forward.

Note that both the win and place columns are profitable:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      946.50        651.08        518.56
Bet               -520.00       -520.00       -520.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                426.50        131.08         -1.44

Wins                   79           127           150
Plays                 260           260           260
PCT                 .3038         .4885         .5769

ROI                1.8202        1.2521        0.9972
Avg Mut             11.98          5.13          3.46

Not bad, right?

But look what happens when the get-able overlay described by the sql expression fails to win the race:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

       AND WINPAYOFF=0

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals        0.00        242.16        261.74
Bet               -362.00       -362.00       -362.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -362.00       -119.84       -100.26

Wins                    0            49            74
Plays                 181           181           181
PCT                 .0000         .2707         .4088

ROI                0.0000        0.6690        0.7230
Avg Mut              0.00          4.94          3.54

If there's one piece of advice I would offer it would be this:

Apply some critical thinking to everything you do.

Including: What happens when my get-able overlay fails to win the race?


-jp
.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 946.50 651.08 518.56
Bet -520.00 -520.00 -520.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L 426.50 131.08 -1.44

Wins 79 127 150
Plays 260 260 260
PCT .3038 .4885 .5769

ROI 1.8202 1.2521 0.9972
Avg Mut 11.98 5.13 3.46[/code]
.

Out of those 79 winners, what was the highest pay of the win and place for that horse?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Take a deep dive into a year's worth of data and you'll likely notice every horse has a matrix of both negative and positive hidden attributes. (Call it the attributes matrix for purposes of this post.)

While every horse has an attributes matrix - no two horses have attribute matrices that are identical.

Also, no two players have identical methods of play.

Your best get-able overlays will have different attribute matrices than mine and vice versa.

It follows place wagering on your get-able overlays will have different results than mine and vice versa. (Fyi, my place wagering results suggest I should avoid the place pool full stop.)

I say this, not because my place results on get-able overlays are dismal (they're not.)

I say this because of what my place results look like after applying some critical thinking.

As in: What do my place results look like when my get-able overlay fails to win the race?

The sql query results below show 2023 ytd results for a method of play/thought process I devised about a month ago.

Fyi, a key part of the sql expression below has been removed because I have visions of scaling up handle volume should this method of play/thought process continue to perform well going forward.

Note that both the win and place columns are profitable:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      946.50        651.08        518.56
Bet               -520.00       -520.00       -520.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                426.50        131.08         -1.44

Wins                   79           127           150
Plays                 260           260           260
PCT                 .3038         .4885         .5769

ROI                1.8202        1.2521        0.9972
Avg Mut             11.98          5.13          3.46

Not bad, right?

But look what happens when the get-able overlay described by the sql expression fails to win the race:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

       AND WINPAYOFF=0

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals        0.00        242.16        261.74
Bet               -362.00       -362.00       -362.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -362.00       -119.84       -100.26

Wins                    0            49            74
Plays                 181           181           181
PCT                 .0000         .2707         .4088

ROI                0.0000        0.6690        0.7230
Avg Mut              0.00          4.94          3.54

If there's one piece of advice I would offer it would be this:

Apply some critical thinking to everything you do.

Including: What happens when my get-able overlay fails to win the race?


-jp
.

That is a really misleading sample you are providing. If you have a sample of horses that attained a 82% roi over a fairly sizable sample on the win end (I assume this is a 260 horse sample) there is no way that the place results when the horse fails to win is not going to be negative (your sample was just a very win oriented sample and is is highly doubtful the next 260 horse sample is going to net you another 82% roi-if it does you will be retired very soon). More likely the next 260 horses reverses course and probably has more horse that run 2nd and fewer horses that win (unless you are playing a lot of "win types" or unless you are playing into a lot of odds on favorites-in these cases I would never suggest betting place).

BTW, if I read this post correctly this is a 1 year sample. Don't you have the ability through your database to go back 5 years, 10 years for a larger sample for a more accurate analysis.

The other side of critical thinking.

[Poindexter]

Another reason I don't like to bet place into odds on favorites is because often you don't like that odds on favorite. I have a whole lot of data that shows me that odds on favorites win as often as they should (based on public opinion) no matter how little I like the horse and I see this play out often. So if I am right I have no problem jumping on a win bet on another horse in the race I like at a nice price. But if the public is right (or half right and that over bet favorite comes 2nd), not only is the place price paltry but my horse still has to beat the rest of the field for me to get the paltry payoff. It is just a completely illogical play.

Regarding win types, anytime your analysis is if the horse loses he very well could run up the track, probably not a wise place bet. Some of these horses do come 2nd, but I still think place is a terrible bet on them.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Out of those 79 winners, what was the highest pay of the win and place for that horse?

The win payoff was more than 60-1 and the place payoff was a little over 20-1.

And no, I didn't bet that race.

I was (and still am) evaluating whether or not the thought process behind the method merits real live play.


-jp
.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

That is a really misleading sample you are providing...

My intent wasn't to mislead anybody, but rather to get people to think.

Proof I guess of the phrase "No good deed goes unpunished."

It's a unique sample (I'll give you that.) It's an area of the game that cycles through months of being overbet followed by months of being overlooked in the odds.

It also has an roi trend line that tends to overshoot expectations during both peaks and valleys.

Here's the partial sql expression again with a table showing the data broken out by incremental odds ranges for 2023:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      946.50        651.08        518.56
Bet               -520.00       -520.00       -520.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                426.50        131.08         -1.44

Wins                   79           127           150
Plays                 260           260           260
PCT                 .3038         .4885         .5769

ROI                1.8202        1.2521        0.9972
Avg Mut             11.98          5.13          3.46

By: Odds

  >=Min      < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   0.00       2.50      31.58     138.00     1.2288      37      69   .5362   1.7648
   2.50       5.00      99.56     156.00     1.6382      27      78   .3462   1.1392
   5.00       7.50      -9.80      48.00     0.7958       3      24   .1250   0.4114
   7.50      10.00      82.50      48.00     2.7188       7      24   .2917   0.9599
  10.00      12.50       1.00      22.00     1.0455       1      11   .0909   0.2992

  12.50      15.00     -26.00      26.00     0.0000       0      13   .0000   0.0000
  15.00      17.50     -16.00      16.00     0.0000       0       8   .0000   0.0000
  17.50      20.00     -14.00      14.00     0.0000       0       7   .0000   0.0000

  20.00    9999.00     277.66      52.00     6.3396       4      26   .1538   0.5063

Note that the thought process shows only 4 winners at 20-1 and higher for the year.

And no, I don't expect the 20-1 row to repeat itself any time soon.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12.50-1, 15-1, and 17.50-1 rows continue generating negative results going forward. (Fyi, very much in line with what I've observed over the past 45 days or so.)

It's really the under 10-1 plays that caught my attention. (So I'll shift focus there.)

This what those rows look like ytd:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND ODDS < 10

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      593.84        465.80        386.86
Bet               -390.00       -390.00       -390.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                203.84         75.80         -3.14

Wins                   74           114           131
Plays                 195           195           195
PCT                 .3795         .5846         .6718

ROI                1.5227        1.1944        0.9919
Avg Mut              8.02          4.09          2.95

And this is what the under 10-1 plays look like when the thought process horse fails to win the race:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND ODDS < 10
AND WINPAYOFF = 0
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals        0.00        164.10        180.08
Bet               -242.00       -242.00       -242.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -242.00        -77.90        -61.92

Wins                    0            41            60
Plays                 121           121           121
PCT                 .0000         .3388         .4959

ROI                0.0000        0.6781        0.7441
Avg Mut              0.00          4.00          3.00

Same effect. (Dismal place results and not what I expected at all the first time I ran it.)


I'll do one more. (Hopefully I'll be able to make my point.)

Post time favorites 2023 ytd:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
     WHERE RANKODDS=1

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals    43580.66      44889.20      44011.72
Bet             -50654.00     -50654.00     -50654.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L              -7073.34      -5764.80      -6642.28

Wins                 9711         15205         17889
Plays               25327         25327         25327
PCT                 .3834         .6003         .7063

ROI                0.8604        0.8862        0.8689
Avg Mut              4.49          2.95          2.46

About what you'd expect, right?


And post time favorites that fail to win the race 2023 ytd:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
     WHERE RANKODDS=1

AND WINPAYOFF = 0

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals        0.00      16761.64      21623.76
Bet             -31232.00     -31232.00     -31232.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L             -31232.00     -14470.36      -9608.24

Wins                    0          5562          8694
Plays               15616         15616         15616
PCT                 .0000         .3562         .5567

ROI                0.0000        0.5367        0.6924
Avg Mut              0.00          3.01          2.49

Clearly dismal place returns, and Imo not what most players would expect at all.


-jp
.

[Jeff P]

My point?

If you're thinking about adding a place bet in case your primary horse doesn't win:

Do yourself a favor. Look at the data first (before doubling your handle on that specific situation.)


-jp
.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

My intent wasn't to mislead anybody, but rather to get people to think.

Proof I guess of the phrase "No good deed goes unpunished."

It's a unique sample (I'll give you that.) It's an area of the game that cycles through months of being overbet followed by months of being overlooked in the odds.

It also has an roi trend line that tends to overshoot expectations during both peaks and valleys.

Here's the partial sql expression again with a table showing the data broken out by incremental odds ranges for 2023:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      946.50        651.08        518.56
Bet               -520.00       -520.00       -520.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                426.50        131.08         -1.44

Wins                   79           127           150
Plays                 260           260           260
PCT                 .3038         .4885         .5769

ROI                1.8202        1.2521        0.9972
Avg Mut             11.98          5.13          3.46

By: Odds

  >=Min      < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   0.00       2.50      31.58     138.00     1.2288      37      69   .5362   1.7648
   2.50       5.00      99.56     156.00     1.6382      27      78   .3462   1.1392
   5.00       7.50      -9.80      48.00     0.7958       3      24   .1250   0.4114
   7.50      10.00      82.50      48.00     2.7188       7      24   .2917   0.9599
  10.00      12.50       1.00      22.00     1.0455       1      11   .0909   0.2992

  12.50      15.00     -26.00      26.00     0.0000       0      13   .0000   0.0000
  15.00      17.50     -16.00      16.00     0.0000       0       8   .0000   0.0000
  17.50      20.00     -14.00      14.00     0.0000       0       7   .0000   0.0000

  20.00    9999.00     277.66      52.00     6.3396       4      26   .1538   0.5063

Note that the thought process shows only 4 winners at 20-1 and higher for the year.

And no, I don't expect the 20-1 row to repeat itself any time soon.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12.50-1, 15-1, and 17.50-1 rows continue generating negative results going forward. (Fyi, very much in line with what I've observed over the past 45 days or so.)

It's really the under 10-1 plays that caught my attention. (So I'll shift focus there.)

This what those rows look like ytd:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND ODDS < 10

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      593.84        465.80        386.86
Bet               -390.00       -390.00       -390.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                203.84         75.80         -3.14

Wins                   74           114           131
Plays                 195           195           195
PCT                 .3795         .5846         .6718

ROI                1.5227        1.1944        0.9919
Avg Mut              8.02          4.09          2.95

And this is what the under 10-1 plays look like when the thought process horse fails to win the race:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF14=1 
      AND RANKF12 <= 2 
      AND PACETOP=3... 

      ...AND FTSCOUNT <= 2

AND ODDS < 10
AND WINPAYOFF = 0
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals        0.00        164.10        180.08
Bet               -242.00       -242.00       -242.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -242.00        -77.90        -61.92

Wins                    0            41            60
Plays                 121           121           121
PCT                 .0000         .3388         .4959

ROI                0.0000        0.6781        0.7441
Avg Mut              0.00          4.00          3.00

Same effect. (Dismal place results and not what I expected at all the first time I ran it.)


I'll do one more. (Hopefully I'll be able to make my point.)

Post time favorites 2023 ytd:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
     WHERE RANKODDS=1

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals    43580.66      44889.20      44011.72
Bet             -50654.00     -50654.00     -50654.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L              -7073.34      -5764.80      -6642.28

Wins                 9711         15205         17889
Plays               25327         25327         25327
PCT                 .3834         .6003         .7063

ROI                0.8604        0.8862        0.8689
Avg Mut              4.49          2.95          2.46

About what you'd expect, right?


And post time favorites that fail to win the race 2023 ytd:

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
     WHERE RANKODDS=1

AND WINPAYOFF = 0

AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2023#
AND [DATE] <= #09-08-2023#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals        0.00      16761.64      21623.76
Bet             -31232.00     -31232.00     -31232.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L             -31232.00     -14470.36      -9608.24

Wins                    0          5562          8694
Plays               15616         15616         15616
PCT                 .0000         .3562         .5567

ROI                0.0000        0.5367        0.6924
Avg Mut              0.00          3.01          2.49

Clearly dismal place returns, and Imo not what most players would expect at all.


-jp
.

I see what your point is (missed it earlier). However the point of betting place is not to have a positive roi should your horse fail to win. That is impossible. The point of betting place is to have a positive roi period and to give you a higher rate of collecting tickets which Thaskalos has explained above. Obviously the relative roi betting win and betting place is a factor. If win betting makes you 10% roi and place betting only has a roi of 2% then you have to decide whether place betting is for you. But everybody has to keep their own records and should very much keep in focus the odds of the favorite (to determine at what point betting against the favorite to place becomes detrimental) and of course separate win only types from not win only types to see how they fare relatively speaking.

Now obviously when you bet all favorites you are going to lose money (not have a positive roi) but in your sample of favorites above place betting is superior to win betting (getting back about 3% more despite the fact that the breakage is significantly higher on place betting than win betting) To rationalize that when the horse fails to win you are going to lose around 45% on the dollar is to ignore all the proceeds you get when the horse wins. That is just faulty logic. The analysis you would use to measure the coming 2nd only would be what I talked about earlier. A weighted 2 hole exacta play with the top 4 favorites (or your top 4 horses-however you want to do it) over your horse (when looking at favorites use the 2nd to 5th favorite as exacta keys. In that case when your horse wins you would not get paid on your exactas, so it is a accurate comparison/analysis. Of course the exactas when they hit (75% of the time or higher) will pay significantly higher than the place bets. (by the way you can even use a complete weighted backwheel-$6 top choice $5 2nd Choice, $4 3rd choice $3 4th choice $2 5th choice and $1 all the rest, so you always hit the exacta when your horse come 2nd).

I am not trying to sell place betting. Every horse player should do what he /she wants to do. But if Tom says he has been betting 1 unit win and 3 units place on horses 9/2 or above for decades and it works and outperforms the win betting only, I believe him. Doesn't mean I will have similar results or you will or anyone else will. If we want to know the answer we have to do the work to find out.

I just can't rationally conceptualize why place betting is "bad" (other than the exceptions I noted above) when the pools have the same takeout as the win pool. Doesn't make any sense (other than higher breakage-which is obviously a lot worse with chalks but doesn't seem to have a negative effect according to Jeff's data).

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Some good points were made for the benefits of win (OR) win/place wagering. In the end its an individual choice that fits the temperament of the bettor. I know for myself, i have the records to prove that win only betting is more profitable than win/place so this is where i stand.

As always an interesting topic for discussion.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by SBD400

Would love to know the logic behind this.

1. Most longshots come in with a shorter priced horse in the other spot. That depresses the place payoff on the long shot you bet to WP a lot of the time.

2. Horseplayers as a group tend to bet longshots more in the place and show pool than to win.

3. The breakage impacts place prices more.

All these things tend to depress place prices on longer priced horses.

The irony is that you are better off betting short priced horses to place than longshots because of the way the crowd bets but most people intuitively do the opposite.

If I love a horse and love the value I just bet it to win or key against a short priced horse I hate in the exacta.

If I love the value on 2 horses I bet both to win and box the exacta.

If a like a live longshot and want to get something if he comes in second, I’ll use him under several horses. There’s no set limit on how many. I’ll just exclude any horse I think is terrible value. If he comes in 2nd and I miss the exacta, that’s frustrating but fine. That means he wasn’t good enough to win and I hated the value on the winner.

My own personal betting records verified what the data suggested to me when I studied the place pool.

[classhandicapper]

Including: What happens when my get-able overlay fails to win the race?

Jeff,

This was a totally awesome insight. I never thought to check that. I’ve done ROI tests for WPS on various angles and insights and also looked at my own betting records to see what was working best, but I never thought to do that.

There are certain types of horses that are more “all or nothing” than others. That much I’m sure of. The public is even smart enough to bet them that way to some small degree. So it’s worth testing.