The coronavirus

[lamboguy]

actually if you look at the last 2 weeks you will see that the case numbers and deaths have decreased by 3% during this holiday season...

not going by any official data, i expect the number of cases to double by July. i also expect them to decline on a daily basis to under 50,000 per day by the end of 2021. i would also guess every year going forward the numbers keep dropping.


i have no data to support any of my estimates, just guessing

[davew]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I noticed a trend on the graphs which shows large dips in cases and deaths on weekends. One could infer from the data that covid is both less contagious and less deadly. This can only further mean that the virus cycles on a 5 day on, two day off regimen. The data says it. I can’t be wrong if I use the data. Right?

This is the accuracy of data and related analyses. They’re mostly bunk with regard to data and analysis. Even the raw data is incorrect.

The data gets reported to the state department of health. Only essential state workers work on weekends and holidays. Maybe if they furloughed state workers indefinitely, it would go away?

[lamboguy]

one more point, 80% of all these reported cases are asymptomatic or mild cases. so as far as we are concerned there have only been about 4 million real cases so far that burden the hospitals. its still nasty to get though.

when you relate these numbers to other diseases, there are probably plenty of people carrying diseases that they don't know about other than corona.

[davew]

most vaccinations also are only given during working hours on non-holiday weekdays.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by davew

The data gets reported to the state department of health. Only essential state workers work on weekends and holidays. Maybe if they furloughed state workers indefinitely, it would go away?

I like your thought process. It solves many problems we have in America today.

[classhandicapper]

This is exactly what I suggested a couple of days ago about NY.

SARATOGA SPRINGS — An employee at a Saratoga Springs jeweler has tested positive for the highly contagious strain of the coronavirus that is engulfing the United Kingdom, marking the first time the variant has been found in New York.

Indeed, Cuomo wagered Monday that the more contagious variant could be the cause of the recent spike in COVID-19 cases across the state.

https://www.timesunion.com/news/arti...s-15845420.php

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

for Sunday, January 3, 2021

194,000 cases

1400 deaths

for Monday , January 4, 2021

190,000 cases

2000 deaths

[lamboguy]

https://usafacts.org/articles/prelim...virus-age-flu/

the birthrate has been declining 1% year to year for the past 5 years while the death rate has been going up for the past 4 years. the census is reporting that our death rate is 9 years ahead of schedule without the population increasing.

i suspect that there will be more immigrants allowed into this country and mothers will get tax benefits for having 3 or more babies. with women working from their homes it is very possible to increase the amount of babies born.. also the trend to live in suburbs and rural area's will pick up.

the death rate in 2009 was 7.9 per 1000, for 2020 it is expected to be 9.4 per thousand.

there are going to be some major challenges, the major one is that we are going to need to bring back the industry's into our country and then find more people to fill up the empty cities..

this is all government data and who knows how much you can trust it, the data attributes a large increase in deaths in 2020 due to the corona.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

this is all government data and who knows how much you can trust it, the data attributes a large increase in deaths in 2020 due to the corona.

The actual data does not show that at all. Even if 350,000 extra people died from corona in 2020, which I believe is closer to 250,000, that doesn’t mean all 350,000 extra deaths were due to corona. As we’ve seen, deaths from other medical causes has declined (doctors have changed how they assign cause of death), meaning that many that died would have died anyway in 2020. Then you have the enormous number of extra deaths due to suicide and overdoses. I don’t understand why some people cannot acknowledge these simple common sense concepts.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by tucker6

The actual data does not show that at all. Even if 350,000 extra people died from corona in 2020, which I believe is closer to 250,000, that doesn’t mean all 350,000 extra deaths were due to corona. As we’ve seen, deaths from other medical causes has declined (doctors have changed how they assign cause of death), meaning that many that died would have died anyway in 2020. Then you have the enormous number of extra deaths due to suicide and overdoses. I don’t understand why some people cannot acknowledge these simple common sense concepts.

i think you missed my whole point here. when you get to the nitty gritty of the whole thing, it doesn't matter what the cause of deaths are, its just that when you combine the decrease of births and more deaths together you are not gaining enough population to suit the plans to not only keep the economy going, but to keep this country together as well. the decrease in births is a bigger problem than the deaths for any reason.
i am the first one that will tell you that the 2000 deaths yesterday are way overblown. those that catch the flue has had a drastic decrease this year. out of the 2000 deaths probably something like 400 of them can be solely attributed to the corona. that's not a big enough number to have a substantial impact on the death rate especially when you can anticipate that number to fall to less than 100 in 2022

[lamboguy]

one more thing, deaths are a very lagging indicator. in 5 years there will be people dying from having the corona today because they managed to survive the virus but had enough damage to to shorten their life expectancy. i don't even think that number will be that big either, i hope i am right on that one.

[tucker6]

Unfortunately, five years from now far more people will be dying from the repercussions of the lockdowns (financial ruin, suicide, overdoses) than the aftereffects of the virus.

As for population growth, that is mainly driven by the birth rate.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Unfortunately, five years from now far more people will be dying from the repercussions of the lockdowns (financial ruin, suicide, overdoses) than the aftereffects of the virus.

As for population growth, that is mainly driven by the birth rate.

you are only reinforcing what i said. whether there are more people dying from corona, overdoses, suicides or whatever, the death rate will be higher going forward.

we are now close to anticipated deaths that are supposed to occur 10 years from now and less people are being born today. that is the only point i have been trying to make. projections for the economy were made based on increasing population in order to maintain national debt, retirement benefits and paying for tax cuts.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

you are only reinforcing what i said. whether there are more people dying from corona, overdoses, suicides or whatever, the death rate will be higher going forward.

we are now close to anticipated deaths that are supposed to occur 10 years from now and less people are being born today. that is the only point i have been trying to make. projections for the economy were made based on increasing population in order to maintain national debt, retirement benefits and paying for tax cuts.

I never disagreed with your point about a temporary increase in death rates.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I never disagreed with your point about a temporary increase in death rates.

how about this one, due to wearing the masks, there have been less cases of the flue and questionably slowed the spread of the corona. however wearing those masks makes you breath in higher amounts of carbon monoxide, your germs and bacteria right back in your system at a higher concentrated rate than if you breath regular air without a mask on. all the mask does is slow down the spread of the corona (not eliminate it) so that hospitals can handle the over load of patients they have now. like everything else in life, things get very confusing and there are plenty of ying's and yang's to everything.