*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

POPS & TIPS:

GAME WINNER 5-1
TACITUS 10-1
VEKOMA 20-1
GREY MAGICIAN 50-1

PLATINUM

MAXIMUM SECURITY 10-1
SPINOFF 30-1
TAX 20-1
IMPROBABLE 6-1


BEST-FIVE

MAXIMUM SECURITY 10-1
VEKOMA 20-1
GAME WINNER 5-1








$1 Trifecta: 7,8,16 / 2,5,6,7,8,16 / 2,4,5,6,8,16
Bets: 74 Total: $74

[NorCalGreg]

Tomorrows BEST-5 top 3 contenders--something to consider. It wouldn't really surprise me if the Derby ran very close to this order.









Also for your perusal--two good looking Value Plays from the undercard.

[Winger]

Greg,

What does the acronym BL stand for in the Platinum Comprensive Spot Play Report?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Winger

Greg,

What does the acronym BL stand for in the Platinum Comprensive Spot Play Report?

It's "BEATEN LENGTHS" Winger.....last two races-1st call. Shows who was part of the pace, early. Most horses that don't get a Power Number didn't show any early or "close up" speed in either of last two races. Therefor eliminated from contention in today's race.

good luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

You probably have an older version--I'll send you the new upgraded 10.4 version, Winger. If you see this right away--send me your email. In the meanwhile I'll see if I still have it.

-NCG


***FOUND IT AND SENT IT TO YOUR JT EMAIL***

[NorCalGreg]

RACE-4 DON VITOS KITTY 7-2

RACE-5 DIVA DRAMA 3-1

RACE-6 ANNIKA GOLD 4-1

P-3 = $10.00

$10.00 WIN 6TH ANNIKA GOLD

$20.00 wagered total

Good luck

-NCG

[oughtoh]

I think the horse in the 6th race is suppose to be the number 8.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

I think the horse in the 6th race is suppose to be the number 8.

You are correct, Ed-my mistake--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

That p-3 kinda sucked @ Parx...all we got left is Mountaineer.

Let me run some longshots up the flagpole--see if anyone salutes.

MNR

R-1 AMALFIA ISLAND 8-1

R-2 EL EMANUEL 10-1

R-6 SIXTEEN PARKSIDE LANE 10-1 remember that Harry Chapin song?

R-7 BOSTON CRIDER 10-1

R-8 SAINT THERESE 20-1



-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

***Didn't even realize Thistledown had started their meet. Here's the Tip Sheet that's a part of the EXOTIC BETS Program



Good Luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Had a few questions--so let me explain what you are looking at-in the above "Tip Sheet"

The column "ML" is obviously the Morning Line. To be a "Value Play" the horse must be min 4-1, with a top rating for that particular race. Those don't happen every day.

The next column is "PN" which is his POWER RANK for today's race race. He must show early speed (at least 1 of his last two) and a race within 50 days, and decent connections.

Then you get his ranking on his ABILITY figure. (A proprietary CLASS figure)

PP is the next column--which is simply his Bris PRIME POWER ranking. You can see SMOOTH TALKIN TOM is #1 in POWER rank--but only ranks 4th in Prime Power. That's a good thing--since everyone has Bris Prime Power....he won't get overbet being ranked 4th.

The last column TJ% - is how the horse's connections rank in the race today. It is simply the Trainers cumulative win %--and his jockey's win %...not as a team, but independently.

The "HOT LIST" is basically a "Fit & Ready" list. These horses have raced recently, working out and ready to go today.

The "Comprehensive Report" shows horses with a good total ranking--and nothing over "5". A spot play that shows good potential are horses I call "singletons"
They are the only horse from a race to make the Comp Report.

Horses ranked on top in everything--such as MASTIC in race 1 ...are usually overwhelming favorites. Any horse that ranks on top in 2 or 3 categories, is worth a closer look. Especially if he's 4-1 or better.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Although the payoffs could have been better--3 of 4 "singletons" won as the only horse from their respective races that made the Comp Report. The one that missed ran 2nd.


-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Looking at something a little different today. This list of horses are the Top Platinum Power plays @ Santa Anita today. The 3rd race is missing--it's a 4.5F race. Platinum needs 3 pace figs--so it cannot handicap a race with only two.
Okay, fine and well...but I also ran the Best-Five consensus and compared the two lists. The circled horses appear on both lists--although Best-Five and Platinum Power are handicapped with very different methods.
Common sense tells you these should be solid bets...unfortunately picking winners is never that easy.

Let's see what happens:











Just for kicks...Best Five can 'cap any distance--so here are the 3rd race B-5 selections:

VEGAN 2-1
CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP 5-2
GOVNESS SHEILA 4-1

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Didn't do much with those--on the bright side, EXOTIC BETS "singletons" both won, though.
(yesterday I explained what a singleton was from the Comp Report)--here it is:








I think Mike (green80) is gonna test this "singleton" spot play for a little bit, and report his results in a couple weeks

[NorCalGreg]

**BTW, this is Saturday's BELTERRA