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09-06-2005, 04:54 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
I do know Free was in the red at Del Mar last season as well.
It is just funny, that's all.
[SIZE=2]fffastt[/SIZE]
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I dont think posting a bet a day is a very good analysis of a players true ability. I certainly dont play with preconcieved notions of a bet the night before. I might have a horse or two I really like but that really may be irrelevent come post time.
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09-06-2005, 05:07 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 2,443
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TO GMB@BP.
I dont think posting a bet a day is a very good analysis of a players true ability. I certainly dont play with preconcieved notions of a bet the night before. I might have a horse or two I really like but that really may be irrelevent come post time.
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Shouldn't a bet a day be a good evaluation of someone's ability?? It is his day's best.
Of course, there are some cards where there are no high-% plays - but over an entire DMR meet he might want to come close to even - afterall, alot of people notice.
fffastt
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09-06-2005, 05:10 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
I dont think posting a bet a day is a very good analysis of a players true ability. I certainly dont play with preconcieved notions of a bet the night before. I might have a horse or two I really like but that really may be irrelevent come post time.
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Shouldn't a bet a day be a good evaluation of someone's ability?? It is his day's best.
Of course, there are some cards where there are no high-% plays - but over an entire DMR meet he might want to come close to even - afterall, alot of people notice.
fffastt
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how do you know what the public is going to do? I mean take monday at saratoga for example, the fifth race was a crap statebred mdn, I had the 4 and 5 pretty equally rated, one was like 4/1 morning the the 5 was 6/1....5 goes of at 14/1 so I bet him, got out with a profit on a day that I hated the card and most of my opinions were wrong. You cant convey that in any type of way.
Brad Free is a very good player, I have no doubts about that. I dont know dan illman at all.
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09-06-2005, 05:14 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Dealing with a bunch of mostly unraced 2YO maidens, its not an enviable position to try to pick winners in these crapshoots.
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09-06-2005, 05:15 PM
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#20
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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These guys did put odds on the horses they selected, such as need at least 3-1 to bet, etc.
Litfin did cash the last day to show a modest profit for the meet, a good job in my opinion.
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09-06-2005, 05:19 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
These guys did put odds on the horses they selected, such as need at least 3-1 to bet, etc.
Litfin did cash the last day to show a modest profit for the meet, a good job in my opinion.
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If I was doing it I would pick two or three contentious races, make on odds line and tell them to bet the horse with the best overlay based on that line. If none then pass.
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09-06-2005, 11:16 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 1,879
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Tough meet for Gary Stevens. 
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09-06-2005, 11:19 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 1,879
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
These guys did put odds on the horses they selected, such as need at least 3-1 to bet, etc.
Litfin did cash the last day to show a modest profit for the meet, a good job in my opinion.
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Yeah, and it seemed like a lot of times that the odds on the horse went below his minimum, the horse would win!
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09-06-2005, 11:53 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Dallas, Tx
Posts: 1,502
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I usually don't keep up with those pickum guys but every time I have checked they have a negative ROI. Seriously...have any of them produced a consistent positive ROI picking every race?
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09-06-2005, 11:58 PM
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#25
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Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Lexington, Ky
Posts: 6,174
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by GR1@HTR
I usually don't keep up with those pickum guys but every time I have checked they have a negative ROI. Seriously...have any of them produced a consistent positive ROI picking every race?
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Irishladstable did as documented in another thread. He's a pick-um guy although not with the visibility of the Form guys.
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09-07-2005, 02:35 AM
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#26
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,658
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by GR1@HTR
I usually don't keep up with those pickum guys but every time I have checked they have a negative ROI. Seriously...have any of them produced a consistent positive ROI picking every race?
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Many public handicappers can produce a positive meet every now and then....it's not all that uncommon....but it isn't easy....
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