Dear Banacek:
I DO UNDERSTAND!
I ask you to re-read my opening (the # 1) post in THIS PART III POSTCRIPT
thread. Thank you.
___________________________
YOU opened this whole scenario in Part iOne by replying to me with a wholesome comment.
Now, we're past the end.
TO ALL:
As I said in "adieu" I expect to report back to you - and the group - with specific ROIs derived from The Valuline (my betting line)
relative to (identifying) specific racetracks and race types.
It is my observation, so far, that particular race conditions & types ("The Bet Analyzer" Figure III) in my Book produce different ROI results at different racetracks. This is based on my "manual" use of my computer's Bet Analyzer
explained below.
Since you admit you haven't read my book, I will answer you here to the
best of my ability - so that you (and others) may more fully understand why
I have not yet listed my findings.
You must realize that I am converting my "Bet Analyzer" to an AUTOMATIC VERSION to evaluate ALL CONDITIONS AND COMBINATIONS AT THE 87 thoroughbred racetracks handicapped by The Valuline.
(The vast majority of combinations of factors so far queried show losers, of course. HOWEVER, there are a surprising number of particular race type/track situations that seem to be producing profitable ROIs, and of sizable percent (e.g. above 25 percent). These are the ones - providing the win percentage and sample size is high enough - that I am subjecting to intensive and extensive testing (I have 5 years, 300,000+ races, at almost all North American thoroughbred racetracks) in my databse.
This is an IMMENSE JOB and, for this reason only, I can't/won't in good conscience present (or share), PRE-MATURE findings!
(Since you and others have requested explanations repeatedly, I am now taking the time to explain my reasoning to you. I had expected my Book to do it - but, of course, for those of you who refuse to read it, this will not happen).
THEREFORE, I'll finish with an outline or "short answer" for the time being, and LET'S PART COLLEAGUES:
Try to visualize the screen of my "Bet Analyzer" ,as it is printed in my
Book. You will see the thousands of combinations of factors SUCH AS as win contender ranking, TVL odds, Morning LIne odds, Track odds, Public Choice ranking, Sex,Age,Surface,Track Condition, Distance, Race Type (Maiden, Non-Maiden, Allowance, Claiming, etc.), Claiming Price, Horse Starts,Jockey Starts,Trainer Starts,Horse Win Percentage, Jockey Win Percentage, Trainer Win Percentage, Post Position, Race Grade (program determined), Field Size,Purse,Gross Points of The Valuline win contenders, (program determined), Overlay percentage.
After all the combinations of all of the above plus a few other factors are
analyzed, the Automatic Bet Analyzer will produce its results in terms of ROI by rank of win contender, by overlay, etc.
This will yield my "Daily Bets" List (Table IV) in my Book. It will be a list
of bets to be made for each day, by post time, track, race and program number, horse name, and bet type. Bet type will be win and/or specific exotic,with also a bet designation: !x, 2x, 3x etc. compared to a normal bet
(1x).
Perhaps, NOW, you can understand what I'm all about, and why I've set a
date of next year's Kentucky Derby to complete my testing.
Sincerely,
Dave Johnson
VALUE BETTING AT THE RACETRACK
