HANDICAPPING FACTORS

[PIC6SIX]

As a general checklist for all to peruse it would be nice to know each capper's five (5) most critical handicapping factors according to the various race conditions. Factors such as recency, distance switch, jockey change, set-up, trainer angle, race replay, class drop, early speed, and yada,yada yada.

[Tom]

Distance
Recency/Form
Speed
Running style
Rider

[Robert Fischer]

odds
trainer
early pace
speed fig
late pace

[Dan Montilion]

Trips
Bias
Trips related to bias
Race shape/Race flow
Trips related to race shape/flow
Trainer
Class Ladder

Although I responded with seven. It is really trips, bias, race shape/flow, trainer and class ladder.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

odds
trainer
early pace
speed fig
late pace

Could you explain why odds are the top HANDICAPPING factor? Betting factor, sure, but do you mean it's vital a horse is "live" on the board or something similar?

[thaskalos]

I have invented a way through which I can manipulate the adjusted internal fractions of the past-performances in a manner which gives me a "performance rating" for each race of the horses in the field. This "performance rating" shows me how much exertion the horses have exhibited in their prior races...and with this rating I can compare the speed horses to the closers of the race without harboring any undue "biases" for or against any particular running style. I calculate these ratings for the recent "representative races" of the horses in the field...making sure that I don't overlook whatever class or distance/footing changes there might be in the race. The higher the performance rating...the more impressive I consider the horse's performance to be.

Next...I make sure that the horse in question is capable of repeating its impressive races in a manner which favorably compares to the betting support that the horse is receiving today. For example...if a horse's PPs show me that the horse can't run two outstanding races back-to-back...then I'll overlook this horse today...no matter how impressive the horse's last race may seem. The key handicapping question that I seek to answer isn't "Which horse has run the fastest prior race?", but rather..."Which horse is capable of running best TODAY?" These two seemingly similar questions often lead to entirely different answers.

With my well-interpreted "performance ratings" in hand, I now compare the horses to their corresponding odds, and arrive at my final betting conclusions...the explanation of which would make this post a lot less "digestible".

[rosenowsr]

Fast Pace


Slow Pace


Class


Distance


Value

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have invented a way through which I can manipulate the adjusted internal fractions of the past-performances in a manner which gives me a "performance rating" for each race of the horses in the field. This "performance rating" shows me how much exertion the horses have exhibited in their prior races...and with this rating I can compare the speed horses to the closers of the race without harboring any undue "biases" for or against any particular running style. I calculate these ratings for the recent "representative races" of the horses in the field...making sure that I don't overlook whatever class or distance/footing changes there might be in the race. The higher the performance rating...the more impressive I consider the horse's performance to be.

Next...I make sure that the horse in question is capable of repeating its impressive races in a manner which favorably compares to the betting support that the horse is receiving today. For example...if a horse's PPs show me that the horse can't run two outstanding races back-to-back...then I'll overlook this horse today...no matter how impressive the horse's last race may seem. The key handicapping question that I seek to answer isn't "Which horse has run the fastest prior race?", but rather..."Which horse is capable of running best TODAY?" These two seemingly similar questions often lead to entirely different answers.

With my well-interpreted "performance ratings" in hand, I now compare the horses to their corresponding odds, and arrive at my final betting conclusions...the explanation of which would make this post a lot less "digestible".

Are you actually using adjusted time fractions or a third party's internal fraction rating for the actual time(after your adjustments)? Hope that makes sense.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have invented a way through which I can manipulate the adjusted internal fractions of the past-performances in a manner which gives me a "performance rating" for each race of the horses in the field. This "performance rating" shows me how much exertion the horses have exhibited in their prior races...and with this rating I can compare the speed horses to the closers of the race without harboring any undue "biases" for or against any particular running style. I calculate these ratings for the recent "representative races" of the horses in the field...making sure that I don't overlook whatever class or distance/footing changes there might be in the race. The higher the performance rating...the more impressive I consider the horse's performance to be.

Next...I make sure that the horse in question is capable of repeating its impressive races in a manner which favorably compares to the betting support that the horse is receiving today. For example...if a horse's PPs show me that the horse can't run two outstanding races back-to-back...then I'll overlook this horse today...no matter how impressive the horse's last race may seem. The key handicapping question that I seek to answer isn't "Which horse has run the fastest prior race?", but rather..."Which horse is capable of running best TODAY?" These two seemingly similar questions often lead to entirely different answers.

With my well-interpreted "performance ratings" in hand, I now compare the horses to their corresponding odds, and arrive at my final betting conclusions...the explanation of which would make this post a lot less "digestible".

Would you consider the 2nd line as a possible "trainer set-up" for today's race?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Could you explain why odds are the top HANDICAPPING factor? Betting factor, sure, but do you mean it's vital a horse is "live" on the board or something similar?

Just listed some factors for a general/generic view of the race.

If I wanted a 'prime-power', without the formulas.

Didn't interpret/intend it as a 'reveal' of my handicapping process or my bread-and-butter angles/plays.

anyway may as well go in depth on 'odds' while here

Today's odds are arguably the most important info in terms of setting the prices, knowing who the public thinks is best, and comparing to our handicapping insights/angles/plays to see if have margin-for-error, or if we simply came up w/ the same favorite. Today's odds are inclusive of a bunch of factors (as far as a general picture of the race). +Add in; A good angle + expected high odds today = a play. (combining multiple angles can form a play, but high odds is usually enough to combine with any individual angle)

Past races odds are also a handicapping factor. We can see if a horse has been taking money along the class ladder, how a horse performed relative to his expectations in a given race, and often compare today's entrants in previous matchups.

"Live on the board" is also important. I view it as a factor.
After all is said and done, I wait on a race, and I do look at the odds.
IMO The best play in racing is betting against a horse whom you fully expect to take too much money, and strongly disagree with the reasoning of why that horse will take too much money today. But, when a horse takes(or fails to take) money that I don't expect, and don't understand, it tells me that I don't understand the race. I can have a really smart angle coming up to a race, but then if the money is unexpected, I pass or proceed with caution.

[mikesal57]

Morning Line is top factor with correlation to winners....

Next is Bris Prime......

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Morning Line is top factor with correlation to winners....

Next is Bris Prime......

Do you find the morning line correlation (especially compared to final odds) holds true for all tracks, just the major ones, or some mix?

Not all morning line oddsmakers are cut from the same cloth.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Do you find the morning line correlation (especially compared to final odds) holds true for all tracks, just the major ones, or some mix?

Not all morning line oddsmakers are cut from the same cloth.

I'm using the global aspect

I also believe that a track is not paying anyone to make a ML....
I believe the tracks are using some 3rd party outfit to give them their ML's

Which in a way it helps out the software people in doing it all the same...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Would you consider the 2nd line as a possible "trainer set-up" for today's race?

Yes...it appears to me to be a trainer move...but it could also be what the trainer thinks is best for the horse. Either way, it's a strong indicator to me that this "trend" will continue...and I refuse to be fooled by it.

[jay68802]

From my spreadsheet:

R47: A combination of late pace and speed figure, late pace is weighted higher.

R14: Is my rating for if the horse can handle the pace and still have something left.

R43: Does the horses running style fit todays race.

R19: My class rating. (I have never been happy with this one.)

I use others in combination with these, but in different situations, but those are the main ones. I do not use Prime Power, trainer stats, jockey stats. I do get a flag for comments such as broke slow, blocked, checked, and in between.

I think I ran 72 races for this, the last three columns are if the winner ranked 1st or 2nd / 3rd / 4th or 5th.