Just made my last Mountaineer bet.

[pacer]

What was distance n time of Wo?

[cj]

TimeformUS had him rated as 2nd best on late speed, those types often run 3/4 at big prices. There you go...

[jk3521]

Bet-Mix had Paul Bunyan as 2nd" best speed at the distance" and 3rd" best speed fast track" . The winner of the race was 2nd from last "best speed at the distance". Why don't you complain how that horse won?

Just "shows to go ya" that you can make a case for just about any horse!

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by jk3521

Mountainman, Could you go into more detail about the "in-house 4th or better rule". Sounds like maybe a handicapping angle?

Once a horse descends to 5k or lower, it must finish 4th or better within its next 10 starts, or become ineligible to compete here.

It takes one GHASTLY slow beast to run afoul of this extremely lenient policy, and , logically, no outfit should WANT to keep that kind of horse around. Believe me, though, they do, and will scrape, claw, scheme and maneuver a spot to run 3rd or 4th. And take god-knows-what measures before the race back at the barn.

Consequently, horses down to their final chance hit the board at a rate disproportionate to their (presumably) high odds.

Or do they??? I scanned our "not eligible" list and , accounting for larger fields we get in the sort of bad races these runners on the brink compete in, estimated they hit the board about 55% as often as their raw statistical chances of doing so. This, however, does NOT account for the kind of high odds these horses are held at.

So the jury is out on the value of this "angle." At least until someone follows through with the math.

[netbet]

Mark,

Is this "not eligible" list available to the public?

Thanks.

I'll be tuning in tonight while watching the NL Wild-Card game.

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Once a horse descends to 5k or lower, it must finish 4th or better within its next 10 starts, or become ineligible to compete here.

It takes one GHASTLY slow beast to run afoul of this extremely lenient policy, and , logically, no outfit should WANT to keep that kind of horse around. Believe me, though, they do, and will scrape, claw, scheme and maneuver a spot to run 3rd or 4th. And take god-knows-what measures before the race back at the barn.

Consequently, horses down to their final chance hit the board at a rate disproportionate to their (presumably) high odds.

Or do they??? I scanned our "not eligible" list and , accounting for larger fields we get in the sort of bad races these runners on the brink compete in, estimated they hit the board about 55% as often as their raw statistical chances of doing so. This, however, does NOT account for the kind of high odds these horses are held at.

So the jury is out on the value of this "angle." At least until someone follows through with the math.

Thank you for the clarification.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cj

TimeformUS had him rated as 2nd best on late speed, those types often run 3/4 at big prices. There you go...

Is it safe to assume that in this horse's previous 20 or so starts where he was up the track he wasn't the "2nd best" at anything and just became "2nd best on late speed" for this particular race?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Is it safe to assume that in this horse's previous 20 or so starts where he was up the track he wasn't the "2nd best" at anything and just became "2nd best on late speed" for this particular race?

I don't know you asked about this race. Probably a pretty good assumption though.

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If someone can satisfactorily explain to me how this horse magically didn't lose by 10 lengths or more, i'll reconsider betting this place in the future.

I know that "Form reversals happen" but i've always believed that if a horse does something, it was capable of doing that very thing by definition. So, this horse was capable of doing what it did......but if there's no rhyme or reason for this happening, i'm going to pass on the Mountain.

Give me your best shot and tell me how this horse hit the board.

If you don't want answers, why ask the question?

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by netbet

Mark,

Is this "not eligible" list available to the public?

Thanks.

I'll be tuning in tonight while watching the NL Wild-Card game.

No. Our process is for my "back-checker" (an official who does the final scan on weights, claiming rules and eligibility) to write the name of any horse with nine outs on a tablet we monitor. This way, rather than waiting to catch it when a newly ineligible horse enters back, we can order that the stall be vacated within 24 hours after the race.

Players interested in following the performances of these horses on the brink should look for runners no better than 5th in 8 consecutive starts after missing the board for a 5-tag or less. Keep in mind that no class-raise can stop the clock, and the first "out" counts against said runner. Lots of horsemen and officials get confused about this.

BEAT 'EM BUCS!!!!

[Peter Berry]

Originally Posted by mountainman

And take god-knows-what measures before the race back at the barn.

Oh, my.

[jk3521]

[QUOTE=mountainman]Once a horse descends to 5k or lower, it must finish 4th or better within its next 10 starts, or become ineligible to compete here.

It takes one GHASTLY slow beast to run afoul of this extremely lenient policy, and , logically, no outfit should WANT to keep that kind of horse around. Believe me, though, they do, and will scrape, claw, scheme and maneuver a spot to run 3rd or 4th. And take god-knows-what measures before the race back at the barn.


According to the Bris chart on that race "Paul Bunyan showed early. gave a mild rally four wide into upper stretch,gaining, then holding position late"......HMMMM....

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't know you asked about this race. Probably a pretty good assumption though.




If you don't want answers, why ask the question?

Who said i didn't want answers?

[netbet]

So, looking at the card tonight---

2nd- K's Trulyastarr; 1-32 lifetime is on 7 straight off-the-board finishes.

4th- Fan Demon; 12-35 lifetime is on 6 straight of-the-board finishes.

Both are 30-1 on the line.

Patrick

[Hambletonian]

SRU

You seriously need help. Not handicapping help, professional help. Your paranoia about jockeys, stewards, longshots blowing up your bets...why the heck do you do this to yourself? Are you a grade A masochist? If so, then carry on and have a great time. Otherwise, watching you torture yourself, and in a way torture all of the rest of us, is becoming sad instead of mildly amusing.

You apparently want a horse racing world that is more honest than society itself. Remember, racing is made up of people, not all good, not all honest, not all ethical....just like the real fricking world. Throw in the gambling motive, the lack of education and social standing among a large majority of the participants, and racing is gong to be a little less ethical. The vast majority of people involved in racing are just scraping by, living day to day, and when this is the case there is always going to be fertile ground for chicanery.

And then you bet a race full of hopeless cases, and are surprised when something strange happens. With cheap horses, and full fields, you never know what could happen, which is have the fun in betting these races.

MNR is the least of your probems....

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Hambletonian

SRU

You seriously need help. Not handicapping help, professional help. Your paranoia about jockeys, stewards, longshots blowing up your bets...why the heck do you do this to yourself? Are you a grade A masochist? If so, then carry on and have a great time. Otherwise, watching you torture yourself, and in a way torture all of the rest of us, is becoming sad instead of mildly amusing.

You apparently want a horse racing world that is more honest than society itself. Remember, racing is made up of people, not all good, not all honest, not all ethical....just like the real fricking world. Throw in the gambling motive, the lack of education and social standing among a large majority of the participants, and racing is gong to be a little less ethical. The vast majority of people involved in racing are just scraping by, living day to day, and when this is the case there is always going to be fertile ground for chicanery.

And then you bet a race full of hopeless cases, and are surprised when something strange happens. With cheap horses, and full fields, you never know what could happen, which is have the fun in betting these races.

MNR is the least of your probems....

I was sane until Paul Bunyan got me, than it all went downhill after that.

Thanks for the advice though.