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04-07-2013, 09:55 PM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,333
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If Verrazano stays sound , he looks like he'll be hard to beat , from the performances we've seen thus far . Who can pass him?
Last edited by nijinski; 04-07-2013 at 09:59 PM.
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04-08-2013, 01:17 AM
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#77
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Me, if he doesn't matchup well in the Derby field, or if his odds are too low.
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04-08-2013, 02:14 AM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Me, if he doesn't matchup well in the Derby field, or if his odds are too low.
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I think you better start running now .
I should have worded it . Who's going to get by him . lol .
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04-08-2013, 05:05 AM
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#79
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Willamette Valley, Oregon
Posts: 1,622
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nijinski
I think you better start running now .
I should have worded it . Who's going to get by him . lol .
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If he runs back to that figure, probably half the derby field.
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04-08-2013, 10:17 AM
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#80
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Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
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How has the Derby chalk made out over the the past years.
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04-08-2013, 11:39 AM
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#81
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Omaha, Nebraska
Posts: 1,366
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
Verranzano is "dressed up" and ready to go as another Pletcher chalky derby contender. Not saying he can't win but he has to move way better derby day off of 4 races that "make" him look "invincible". They are going 10 furlongs and you will never, ever see a 25 quarter or a 50 half until the final stages of this race. If you want to be on something that might make you some coin on derby day, this was just the sort of race you wanted yesterday. The big horse wins in a weak event like that and now the world loves him
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That's how I see it too.
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04-08-2013, 11:51 AM
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#82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bob60566
How has the Derby chalk made out over the the past years.
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In recent years, they did not do well. Don't have data for distant years, but I would imagine that, overall, they do not win many Derbys. Remember, these are 3 yos, many having never run against each other, nor on the track nor at the distance. And, there are up to 20 starters in the Derby, that alone makes choosing the winner, chalk or not, more difficult. Of course, many favorites in the Derby, are early horses, as in many other races, and in the large Derby field, if an early horse doesn't get a good start his chances of winning are severely degraded, depending on the pace he/she faces in that race. Typically, there are several speed burners in the Derby, which means that some of them will get burned out in the early going and fade badly, leaving the advantage to later running styles and those otherwise advantaged by the pace of the race. Personally, I wouldn't bet a favorite, to win the Derby, "under gunfire". In my superfecta play, however, I might well have the favorite on the win line (if he ranks well enough to be there), with others, because so many times long shots finish in the top 4 and the resulting payouts, even with the favorite winning, can be huge because of the humongous pool for the Derby.
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04-08-2013, 01:21 PM
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#83
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
In recent years, they did not do well. Don't have data for distant years, but I would imagine that, overall, they do not win many Derbys. Remember, these are 3 yos, many having never run against each other, nor on the track nor at the distance. And, there are up to 20 starters in the Derby, that alone makes choosing the winner, chalk or not, more difficult. Of course, many favorites in the Derby, are early horses, as in many other races, and in the large Derby field, if an early horse doesn't get a good start his chances of winning are severely degraded, depending on the pace he/she faces in that race. Typically, there are several speed burners in the Derby, which means that some of them will get burned out in the early going and fade badly, leaving the advantage to later running styles and those otherwise advantaged by the pace of the race. Personally, I wouldn't bet a favorite, to win the Derby, "under gunfire". In my superfecta play, however, I might well have the favorite on the win line (if he ranks well enough to be there), with others, because so many times long shots finish in the top 4 and the resulting payouts, even with the favorite winning, can be huge because of the humongous pool for the Derby.
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This is from a book that Churchill Downs published on the occasion of the 100th Derby. The book has charts of every Derby up to 1973. From 1904 to 1973 favorites won twenty four of sixty nine derbys; a percentage of 34.8%. I think that is pretty close to normal for winning favorites. Prior to 1904 they do not give the odds.
What time frame do your stats cover and what is the percentage, if I may ask?
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
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04-08-2013, 01:32 PM
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#84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
This is from a book that Churchill Downs published on the occasion of the 100th Derby. The book has charts of every Derby up to 1973. From 1904 to 1973 favorites won twenty four of sixty nine derbys; a percentage of 34.8%. I think that is pretty close to normal for winning favorites. Prior to 1904 they do not give the odds.
What time frame do your stats cover and what is the percentage, if I may ask?
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Since you have the stats, I already said I have none for distant Derbys, why not give them for the past 10 years. I'm going from memory alone, no stats, because I'm not a stats kind of player.
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04-08-2013, 01:38 PM
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#85
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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Stats back til 1970
Favorites to win the derby since 1970--
1972--Riva Ridge
1973--Secretariat
1974--Cannonade
1975--Foolish Pleasure
1977--Seattle Slew
1979--Spectacular Bid
2000--Fu Peg
2004--Smarty Jones
2007--Street Sense
2008--Big Brown
Out of 43 derbies, 10 favs won hitting at about 23%
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04-08-2013, 01:41 PM
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#86
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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The rate of winning favourites will not be very high anymore as the average field size has increased significantly. 20 starters each year now barring scratches in the final 72 hours.
Last edited by RXB; 04-08-2013 at 01:42 PM.
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04-08-2013, 02:03 PM
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#87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Striker
Favorites to win the derby since 1970--
1972--Riva Ridge
1973--Secretariat
1974--Cannonade
1975--Foolish Pleasure
1977--Seattle Slew
1979--Spectacular Bid
2000--Fu Peg
2004--Smarty Jones
2007--Street Sense
2008--Big Brown
Out of 43 derbies, 10 favs won hitting at about 23%
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That's a little better than I thought, 3 in the last 10 years. The problem with this is that, the favorite you bet at post time, may or may not be the final favorite, due to the after post odds drops, or vice versa, you may be on the 2nd or 3rd fav at post and it finishes as the favorite. Like I said, I wouldn't bet a favorite, to win only, in the Derby, under gunfire.
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04-08-2013, 04:44 PM
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#88
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Wood Memorial
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
The problem with this is that, the favorite you bet at post time, may or may not be the final favorite, due to the after post odds drops
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I would say that this is true for many races with normal-sized pools, but that this is extremely unlikely to happen in a race like the Derby with a huge pool.
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04-08-2013, 04:58 PM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Since you have the stats, I already said I have none for distant Derbys, why not give them for the past 10 years. I'm going from memory alone, no stats, because I'm not a stats kind of player.
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I clearly stated that I have a book that goes up to 1973. How would that give me stats for the past ten years?
You said,
Quote:
In recent years, they did not do well. Don't have data for distant years,
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That would imply that you do have data for recent years. Turns out you don't have any data at all.
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
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04-08-2013, 05:03 PM
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#90
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
I clearly stated that I have a book that goes up to 1973. How would that give me stats for the past ten years?
You said,
That would imply that you do have data for recent years. Turns out you don't have any data at all.
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All right, it's clear you're looking for a fight, so I'll just step away. Thanks for your stats!
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