How to Bet The Met

[Robert Fischer]

After Handicapping the race:

Toss Silent Name from trifecta

Overlay is .... Political Force

Underlays - Silent Name , Lawyer Ron

Win Candidates - Silver Wagon, Political Force, Sun King, Latent Heat, Half Ours



How to bet the met
$1 trifectas

big tri covering my opinion:
1,3,4,6,7 w/1,2,3,4,6,7 w/1,2,3,4,6,7,8 = $125

3 trifectas keying Sun King and Silver Wagon - if both in the money I hit the tri again for $2
41 w/1,2,3,4,6,7 w/1,2,3,4,6,7,8 = 50

13467 w/41 w/1,2,3,4,6,7,8 = $40

13467 w/123467 w/41 = $32 = $122

Throwing some of my expected winnings back in the pot
47 w/1347 w/13467 = $18

$265


Analysis:
Silver Wagon is in consistent form with his late run. Deserving favorite but not a lock by any means - stretching to 8 furlongs here against a tough if not talented bunch.
Latent Heat should quit finish out of the exacta - SHOULD - watching First Defence go 7 furlongs in 80 seconds is enough to be wary of Frankel and lLatent Heat is a pretty nice animal.
Sun King is as sharp as he ever is going to get. Intentional or not Nakatani moved SK early in the prep, and then the tightening workouts.
Lawer Ron will be bet for his Derby run name and recent success against G3 quality animals. He isn't good enough and will need a perfect ride to get in the exacta.
Political Force - nice animal, can rate near the pace and finish, probably cant win here but has a good shot at an in the money finish
Corinthian - Good animal bad placement here, little things like handling the turn could affect his placement
Half Ours - Nice animal , toss the slop race, hard to read his true quality from his form as he hasn't faced a whole lot, could run well or even disappear
Silent Name - He isn't a serious contender, in here for bloodstock hopes only

[Robert Fischer]

looking at the odds im going to add to the Above

box 13467 = $20

[Robert Fischer]

left out the "NOT" in the title

Pretty bad wagering when you identify the overlay , and toss the pedigree horse and then cover big and still come up empty.

Knew Corinthian is a good animal just didn't see him winning in this spot. Probably chose sucker-bet Latent Heat over him in the top spots purely because of Frankel.

If there is any lesson - Use the best animals

[Stevie Belmont]

I agreed on Political Force..

Corithian was no real suprise here. He ran some big races at Gulfstream. A lot of people saw his last race where he stumbled out of the gate, darkened the form a little more. He he wins big that day he goes of 5/1 or so who knows, but not 9/1. JJerkens had him ready and he is solid trainer the horse jumped foward to capture his first GradeI..I did not use him either. There were others in there...it was a solid group of horses.

It was a nifty Jerkens Zacta

[keilan]

Robert – u get full marks for putting up an opinion. I can respect that.

Too many around here write posts all day and never have an opinion before the race. Those sissy-assed girls need a li’l educating

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by keilan

Robert – u get full marks for putting up an opinion. I can respect that.

Too many around here write posts all day and never have an opinion before the race. Those sissy-assed girls need a li’l educating

lol Thanks Keilan

If you ask me about Corinthian last week, I would have said he is a legitimate top 5 older horse. I got cute and tried to adjust for the distance.

I took the maximum coverage approach, so it was really bad judgement to save $100 by fitting Corinthian in the 3rd slot only. Otherwise I have the $1,500 trifecta for the full $2.