after the bell

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'd bet every single dollar I'll ever make contact with that there isn't one single person on this forum that could show a profit over a month betting and canceling up to 5 seconds into the race. Hell, I'll bet there isn't anyone that could show a profit with the ability to cancel 20 seconds into a race.

You've already lost all your money.

And no cancelling advantage was required.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

So these "computer guys" that are supposed to be Nostradamus from a handicapping perspective and John Nash from a mathematical perspective and they put these two talents together to come up with Unique Bella. Then, because of their brilliance, they've found a way to cancel a few strides into the race, and did so on Unique Bella?

Pretty sure the "computer guys" had little interest in the Unique Bella race. That's why, as someone pointed out, only about 10% of the pool came in after the bell, instead of the usual 30-40%....

Makes sense when you think about it...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

So these "computer guys" that are supposed to be Nostradamus from a handicapping perspective and John Nash from a mathematical perspective and they put these two talents together to come up with Unique Bella. Then, because of their brilliance, they've found a way to cancel a few strides into the race, and did so on Unique Bella?

C'mon!!! All of this idiotic conjecture without a single iota of proof does little more than perpetuate the myth that all horseplayers are losers and belong to the tinfoil hate community.

I think something strange is happening when the actual winner of the race drops in odds from gate loading to race finish as often as it does. But assuming this has to do with some mythical advantage 4 seconds into the race is highly unlikely and all it does is cloud a true phenomena.

I'd bet every single dollar I'll ever make contact with that there isn't one single person on this forum that could show a profit over a month betting and canceling up to 5 seconds into the race. Hell, I'll bet there isn't anyone that could show a profit with the ability to cancel 20 seconds into a race.

While I'm not ruling ANYTHING out from happening on occasion, I doubt very highly the cancel option 5 seconds into the race has a single thing to do with this issue. And, for the record, to me, the issue is how can the last second tote flash identify the winner as often as it does. To me, that defies common sense and I truly don't know why.

I will admit, I am completely speculating.

These CRW teams have put the kabash on me from wanting to bet lately.

Its all good, I am sure nothing to see here, move along.

[AlsoEligible]

Just want to point out that Oaklawn doesn’t allow any CRW teams to wager on them. That’s why, as PA points out, only 10% of the total pool came in during the last flash - not because they weren’t interested in the race.

[elhelmete]

Here are several 'after the bell' scenarios that would need to be studied, IMHO.

Odds go up, horse wins.
Odds go down, horse wins.
Odds go up, horse's finish is inconsequential/off the board.
Odds go down, horse's finish is inconsequential/off the board.
And then all of the above again when the odds change is due to money OUT of the pool (cancelled).

All of that would be some very interesting data.

[zawaaa]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

UNIQUE BELLA HAD $137,000 to win on her before the race started, when she blew the break she crossed the wire with $114,000 on her. i know someone must have made a mistake and had to cancel a large bet at the very last second!

Originally Posted by Irishfever

Took a screenshot of the money flow at zero mtp to final odds. I just took note that she was the only one who took a substantial drop in money taken out on her.

thanks for the conformation of those numbers Irishfever.

i did check one of the on-line toteboards friday night and they had the final amount wagered on Unique Bella about 114k. i unfortunately didn't bother checking that against the final win pool total, which is a problem because if you do the math :

(211,285 * .83 / 114,500) - 1 = .53158

which is of course NOT what the final odds were.

so something is wrong here; as if the final win pool is $211,285 then the amount wagered on Unique Bella for that pool would have to be between $134,898 and $146,138; which would actually fall conceivably within the range that the final pool might end up at if you look at the given numbers at post-time :

(192,410 * .83 / 137,500) - 1 = .16145

anyway, in summary, it does seem like that lamboguy did get him numbers right but maybe somehow the display wasn't accurate for the amount bet to win on Unique Bella and this is nothing more than that?

[Andy Asaro]

Is there anyone who is absolutely sure there was 137K to win at a point in time. One source says there never was. That doesn't mean they're right.

[Irishfever]

This shot shows the final amount wagered on her was $145 223.

Nevermind, since I'm Canadian I forgot that the adw shows pool totals in Cdn exchange values

[zawaaa]

oh dear

it certainly looks like Lamboguy was looking at the Canadian pool before the race & the American pool after!

here's what i roughly have now -

POST (152,004 * .83 / 108,230) - 1 = .16570

FINAL (166,916 * .83 / 114,726) - 1 = .20758

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

Just want to point out that Oaklawn doesn’t allow any CRW teams to wager on them. That’s why, as PA points out, only 10% of the total pool came in during the last flash - not because they weren’t interested in the race.

Yeah, I kinda don't buy that CRW teams don't play Oaklawn. How does Oaklawn know exactly who some of these teams are or who they are wagering through at any given moment in order to "ban" them.

Maybe they don't have the sweet deal they get with other tracks, but that doesn't mean at least some of their money doesn't find its way there.

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, I kinda don't buy that CRW teams don't play Oaklawn. How does Oaklawn know exactly who some of these teams are or who they are wagering through at any given moment in order to "ban" them.

Maybe they don't have the sweet deal they get with other tracks, but that doesn't mean at least some of their money doesn't find its way there.

Yeah to be more specific, Oaklawn doesn’t give access to the rebate shops that most of the CRW teams play through. I’m sure a few still find their way in, using batch betting through traditional ADWs. But that’s without the direct interface into the tote, so they don’t have the speed to dump in tens of thousands of bets at the very last second. That at least mitigates the issue of late odds shifts during the race.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by cj

Personally I think this is really bad even if before the bell. You bet, you're done. Maybe a one minute window for mistakes. Otherwise pool manipulation becomes a big issue. It is bad enough so much money comes in late. Now we can't even trust the money we see in the pool will stay.

Very good point. The contempt and animosity for racetrack managements is EARNED...in spades.