No real PROOF of PAST POSTING!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I think most of us would have a fairly good idea how much of this late odds movement is due to the "brilliance of the whales" and how much of this late odds movement is due to some major money being bet after the bell.

First of all, the whales don't have to be THAT brilliant. They just have to be better than you or me or the rest of the people out there. That isn't all that hard to do, considering the VAST, VAST majority of players are long term losers.

Second, yes, they bet a ton of money in the last minute or less. And most certainly that money isn't going to make it to the tote until after the latch springs on the gate. Depending on the timing cycle, it can take a good 15-30 seconds from the time the gate opens for the last tote cycle to update.

But you think it's somebody or some group of sombodies, who are able to wager close to $100,000 at a place like Keeneland, for example, AFTER the race starts.

And nobody in a position of authority notices...or if they do, they just let it go.

I don't buy that for one second.

Sorry if dreamland was too harsh for you. But around here, I've always called it as I see it...as have my many critics towards me. We're all big boys and girls around here. No need to harp on the dreamland comment. If I can take what you guys dish out, you can take what I dish out in return.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

First of all, the whales don't have to be THAT brilliant. They just have to be better than you or me or the rest of the people out there. That isn't all that hard to do, considering the VAST, VAST majority of players are long term losers.

They also don't have to be that brilliant because they get a much better price. Imagine knowing that for every million dollars you put through the window you are only paying 900k. It doesn't guarantee you'll win by any stretch, but it is a good start.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by cj

They also don't have to be that brilliant because they get a much better price. Imagine knowing that for every million dollars you put through the window you are only paying 900k. It doesn't guarantee you'll win by any stretch, but it is a good start.

Somebody mentioned that if you are getting .97 roi you’re effectively winning. Tie that in with the above and it’s easy money for the teams

[cj]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Somebody mentioned that if you are getting .97 roi you’re effectively winning. Tie that in with the above and it’s easy money for the teams

I think many people could live with this if it wasn't all so damn secretive. We'd at least all know what we needed to do to get the same deal.

[Track Phantom]

I'm curious to where everyone falls on this issue.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is true:
- A higher than "normal" percentage of winners odds drop during the running of the race

There are only a few possibilities for this to occur. Which do you believe to be true?

A) Coincidence
B) Past Posting
C) Computer/Team Wagering at the bell that takes 30 seconds to update
D) Insider betting (i.e. trainers, owners, riders) who have knowledge not available to the public
E) Something else

I'm on "D"

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'm curious to where everyone falls on this issue.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is true:
- A higher than "normal" percentage of winners odds drop during the running of the race

There are only a few possibilities for this to occur. Which do you believe to be true?

A) Coincidence
B) Past Posting
C) Computer/Team Wagering at the bell that takes 30 seconds to update
D) Insider betting (i.e. trainers, owners, riders) who have knowledge not available to the public
E) Something else

I'm on "D"

Perhaps we could do a proper poll (and merge all the late odds changes back in to one thread), but I'm with C.

If it were D, wouldn't it have always been a problem? Trainers/owners/etc have always had inside information, and much of the discussion here is that large late odds drops have increased dramatically since the good old days.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'm curious to where everyone falls on this issue.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is true:
- A higher than "normal" percentage of winners odds drop during the running of the race

There are only a few possibilities for this to occur. Which do you believe to be true?

A) Coincidence
B) Past Posting
C) Computer/Team Wagering at the bell that takes 30 seconds to update
D) Insider betting (i.e. trainers, owners, riders) who have knowledge not available to the public
E) Something else

I'm on "D"

How's about "E) All of or some mix of the above, F) Something else".

I'm on E.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

What I find interesting on the past posting issue is that if racing even for just 1 month did not spring the gate until the pool was closed and the final odds were displayed, at the end of that one month, I think most of us would have a fairly good idea how much of this late odds movement is due to the "brilliance of the whales" and how much of this late odds movement is due to some major money being bet after the bell.

The price to pay for demanding that final odds be tallied and displayed prior to off, I believe is a small one. I think anyone that blindly trusts that past posting is not going on is being naive (even though those of us who believe it are living in a dreamland).

I think it is about time for this bettor(myself) to focus the majority of his action on the multi leg exotics. Not likely someone past posting is going to put much of their money in the pick 4 or pick 5, and even if they do the rest of the legs they have to bet in advance.

I agree. I'm not saying that it does happen on a regular basis and I'm not even saying it definitely does happen X amount of times a week. However, saying it doesn't happen at all is foolish.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'm curious to where everyone falls on this issue.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is true:
- A higher than "normal" percentage of winners odds drop during the running of the race

There are only a few possibilities for this to occur. Which do you believe to be true?

A) Coincidence
B) Past Posting
C) Computer/Team Wagering at the bell that takes 30 seconds to update
D) Insider betting (i.e. trainers, owners, riders) who have knowledge not available to the public
E) Something else

I'm on "D"

While D certainly happens I doubt that money is hardly ever bet so late that it comes in during the race. I haven't seen proof of anything happening or not happening but I can tell you this. I WOULD NOT care if EVERY horse I bet went from 15-1 to 2-1 AS LONG AS IT HAPPENED BEFORE THE RACE STARTED.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Perhaps we could do a proper poll (and merge all the late odds changes back in to one thread), but I'm with C.

If it were D, wouldn't it have always been a problem? Trainers/owners/etc have always had inside information, and much of the discussion here is that large late odds drops have increased dramatically since the good old days.

True but drugs, and the ease of obtaining them by lower rung outfits, have likely led to the inside information being more impactful.

Gone are the days where inside information consisted of a horse training well or a new strategy being deployed.

[cj]

Race 1 at Aqu

2mtp

1 1-1
3 2-1

1mtp

1 1-1, then 4-5
3 9-5, then 8-5, then 6-5

0 mtp

1 4-5, then 1-1, then 4-5
3 1-1, then 4-5, then 1-1

Right after break, first flash

1 6-5
3 3-5

(this was too fast, not implying past posting)



Guess who won?

[Denny]

Poindexter, you said -

"I think it is about time for this bettor(myself) to focus the majority of his action on the multi leg exotics. Not likely someone past posting is going to put much of their money in the pick 4 or pick 5, and even if they do the rest of the legs they have to bet in advance."

Remember the Fix 6. The bet was put in after I think it was 4 legs had been completed (maybe it was 5, can't remember).

The point is they singled all the winners up to that point and then used ALL.

That's why he got caught, it was too obvious when they investigated.

But, let's just say, someone uses a few extra numbers in the already concluded races - just to take away any suspicion - will they EVER BE CAUGHT.

How do know this can't be happening now - especially in JACKPOTS!

But, any big enough pool could be targeted.

Last year at Saratoga, right near the end of the meet. There was a single winner of the new Late Pick 5. It was a highly unlikely sequence of winners. But, there was ONE winner that scooped the pool, something like 700K, if I remember. I was there that day and remember it was big and thinking to myself how could anybody come up with that sequence.

Just sayin'.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'm curious to where everyone falls on this issue.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is true:
- A higher than "normal" percentage of winners odds drop during the running of the race

There are only a few possibilities for this to occur. Which do you believe to be true?

A) Coincidence
B) Past Posting
C) Computer/Team Wagering at the bell that takes 30 seconds to update
D) Insider betting (i.e. trainers, owners, riders) who have knowledge not available to the public
E) Something else

I'm on "D"

Definitely "C."

And to be clear, everybody's bets take 30 seconds or more to update.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Point is...widespread past posting isn't something I think is happening. Once in a blue moon system failures along the line may have allowed past posting somewhere, and that urban legend gets blown up into a full blown crisis when combined with the late odds drops we see regularly today, but are actually due to tons of money (40% or more) coming in at the final 30 seconds or less of open wagering, and don't get reflected on the tote until after the race starts.

Occam's razor easily points towards that last scenario, but a lot of people tend to gravitate to the more sexier and criminal notions lying around out there.

I was waiting for someone to state the objective fact of late money bet through ADW's and other tracks that doesn't get reflected in pools until after the start of the race.

It's the same as a horse going from 7-2 to 2-1 with 4 minutes to post with 30% more money added to the pools, as it does with the last 30% bump to the pools right before the tote closes that moves a horse from 7-2 to 2-1.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'm curious to where everyone falls on this issue.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume this is true:
- A higher than "normal" percentage of winners odds drop during the running of the race

There are only a few possibilities for this to occur. Which do you believe to be true?

A) Coincidence
B) Past Posting
C) Computer/Team Wagering at the bell that takes 30 seconds to update
D) Insider betting (i.e. trainers, owners, riders) who have knowledge not available to the public
E) Something else

I'm on "D"

I say it's a combination of C and D...with a pinch of B thrown in, to improve the flavor.