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09-02-2010, 06:17 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 828
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What effects the odds mostly
Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?
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09-02-2010, 06:43 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Figures (especially Beyers)
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09-02-2010, 09:16 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Sharp early speed, when combined with a 2+ level drop in class.
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09-02-2010, 09:19 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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Hot jockeys and/or trainers can really pack an influence on the toteboard ie.Canani @ Arlington.
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09-02-2010, 09:37 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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From my DB, I would have to agree with Overlay. Speed figs.
If you had a two horse race and one horse was a 90 and one an 80, but the 80 was dropping in class with a hot new trainer, people would still make the 90 the chalk, I believe. The pull of the "fastest horse" will always win out. jmo
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09-02-2010, 09:47 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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If the high beyer horses are going up in class, they are rarely favored...and they seldom win.
IMO, class is still the most influencial factor out there, as far as odds are concerned.
Just look at what happens when a horse with mediocre figures ships from a major to a minor track.
The "high class" shipper has much inferior numbers than the other horses...but gets bet "off the board".
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09-02-2010, 10:55 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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I dunno Thask.
For 2010.
Code:
By: Class Shift (Using Purse Value)
Class Shift (PV) Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -3848.50 26684.00 0.8558 4884 13342 .3661 0.9902 no change
1 -1615.40 11062.00 0.8540 1997 5531 .3611 0.9766 class riser
2 -3876.70 26594.00 0.8542 5012 13297 .3769 1.0196 class dropper
For top fig horses
Code:
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -3107.00 26846.00 0.8843 5540 13423 .4127 1.1164
2 -1783.00 13542.00 0.8683 2522 6771 .3725 1.0075
3 -1478.80 8600.00 0.8280 1472 4300 .3423 0.9260
4 -1119.80 6044.00 0.8147 974 3022 .3223 0.8718
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09-02-2010, 11:10 PM
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#8
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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"Smart Money" If the word is out on a horse, it will get bet regardless of any other factors. This is true everywhere, from Saratoga to Fonner Park and every place in between.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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09-03-2010, 07:41 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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What effects the odds mostly
An "in the money" finish in the horse's last race is still a huge factor in influencing its odds.
Ocala Mike
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09-03-2010, 10:19 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 580
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"What effects the odds mostly"
I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.
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09-03-2010, 10:35 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SMOO
"What effects the odds mostly"
I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.
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I knew there was a brilliant player out there somewhere.
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09-03-2010, 11:02 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 955
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The flavor of the month ( or week ) when it comes to jockey & trainer.
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09-03-2010, 01:56 PM
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#13
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misscashalot
Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?
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Last Line itis
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"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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09-03-2010, 01:58 PM
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#14
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misscashalot
Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?
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What appears to be lone speed, OR, a horse ridden by the leading rider and trained by the leading trainer at the meet.
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09-03-2010, 03:29 PM
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#15
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s.e. pa.
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: flag, az/hatfield, pa.
Posts: 5,122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SMOO
"What effects the odds mostly"
I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.
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What about the amount Not bet on the horse?
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