Soccer - 2014 World Cup

[Dark Horse]

Latest: Neymar has a fractured vertebrae and is ruled out of the World Cup.

Ironic, hey? One of the game's superstars and floppers. There it is. Both sides of the coin. http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/28173132

What bothers me about this game is that referees often don't understand how dirty a foul is.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Latest: Neymar has a fractured vertebrae and is ruled out of the World Cup.

Ironic, hey? One of the game's superstars and floppers. There it is. Both sides of the coin. http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/28173132

What bothers me about this game is that referees often don't understand how dirty a foul is.

The guy is very slight, very fragile. He's going to have to bulk up a little if he's going to have a long career.

[Shelby]

Brazil might be on the ropes....Neymar out along with Silva.

[BetHorses!]

Germany slight fav...

[PhantomOnTour]

The German boots are marching onward !

[lansdale]

I was amazed to see how little the odds on Brazil had changed despite losing two of its major stars for the semifinal match vs. Germany. Although odds obviously vary, I'm often seeing Brazil ca. 15/8 and Germany ca. 17/10 - surprisingly close to pk. On the future book, the two countries had previously been tied as favorites at 5/2. Germany is still 5/2, but Brazil has only moved to 11/4. Can anybody explain this? I've been the one emphasizing HCA, but it is it really this powerful? Maybe so. OTOH, Silver's model has doubled down on Brazil and, and now has them at slightly better than even money to win the WC.

[ManU918]

My plays today....
Belgium vs Argentina Over 2.5 (+125)
Costa Rica to advance +370

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

Lead pipe, concrete lock, empty the bank 2 team parlay to advance, Netherlands/Belgium. The flopping Dutchman will score and Belgium too big , too fast ,too strong.

This is what I've been hearing from friends. Belgium had a very tough time putting away the U.S., which is ranked, what - 15-20? And my friends are not the only people who put Messi on par with the some of the best players of the past, and believe Belgium's defense will seem sieve-like against him. What about the hemispheric bias also favoring ARG? So, maybe not toast but Belgian waffles.

[lansdale]

Thought this was a fascinating juxtaposition of these two famed players. Fortunately, oxygen was administered to the calm, low-key announcer immediately after making the call.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=TEcghxju2G4

[PhantomOnTour]

Loss of Di Maria after 30mins is huge for Argentina, despite having the lead.

He is a Grade A ball player.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by lansdale

This is what I've been hearing from friends. Belgium had a very tough time putting away the U.S., which is ranked, what - 15-20? And my friends are not the only people who put Messi on par with the some of the best players of the past, and believe Belgium's defense will seem sieve-like against him. What about the hemispheric bias also favoring ARG? So, maybe not toast but Belgian waffles.

You're looking good so far.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by lansdale

This is what I've been hearing from friends. Belgium had a very tough time putting away the U.S., which is ranked, what - 15-20? And my friends are not the only people who put Messi on par with the some of the best players of the past, and believe Belgium's defense will seem sieve-like against him. What about the hemispheric bias also favoring ARG? So, maybe not toast but Belgian waffles.

Good call. I was dead wrong. Looks like you can't concede an early goal against Argentina.

[notoutofpounds]

Originally Posted by lansdale

...Messi on par with the some of the best players of the past, and believe Belgium's defense will seem sieve-like against him. What about the hemispheric bias also favoring ARG? So, maybe not toast but Belgian waffles.

Excellent selection and thanks for posting the link to the Home Field advantage.

[cj's dad]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

Good call. I was dead wrong. Looks like you can't concede an early goal against Argentina.

Not when your offense sux.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by lansdale

I was amazed to see how little the odds on Brazil had changed despite losing two of its major stars for the semifinal match vs. Germany. Although odds obviously vary, I'm often seeing Brazil ca. 15/8 and Germany ca. 17/10 - surprisingly close to pk. On the future book, the two countries had previously been tied as favorites at 5/2. Germany is still 5/2, but Brazil has only moved to 11/4. Can anybody explain this? I've been the one emphasizing HCA, but it is it really this powerful? Maybe so. OTOH, Silver's model has doubled down on Brazil and, and now has them at slightly better than even money to win the WC.

I would say that for Brazil home field is worth about 0.75 goals. That means that, without it, Brazil would have lost to Chile and just squeezed by Columbia (after not qualifying for that round).

Brazil has gone far enough, imo. They never were a team, and now they also lack stars. Normally, for a tournament like this, team concept is first and individual stars can shine only if that foundation is in place. Neymar was no exception. Germany has no stars, but they are a team. I would expect a patient German side, because they have seen how poorly Brazil has played in the second halves. And mentally/emotionally Germany is far stronger than a very breakable Brazil side.

Because Neymar was only a shadow of himself in the past two games, his absence won't make too much difference for the chances of Brazil. However, the reason that he couldn't shine was the lack of team concept... So in that sense Brazil was always overestimated.