View Poll Results: What would be the MINIMUM post time odds you would accept to bet on American Pharoa
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100-1
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3 |
3.61% |
50-1
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0 |
0% |
20-1
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1 |
1.20% |
15-1
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0 |
0% |
12-1
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0 |
0% |
10-1
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3 |
3.61% |
8-1
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0 |
0% |
6-1
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2 |
2.41% |
5-1
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5 |
6.02% |
4-1
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5 |
6.02% |
7/2
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1 |
1.20% |
3-1
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5 |
6.02% |
5/2
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7 |
8.43% |
2-1
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21 |
25.30% |
3-1
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3 |
3.61% |
1-1
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13 |
15.66% |
4/5
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9 |
10.84% |
3/5
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1 |
1.20% |
2/5
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0 |
0% |
1/5
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0 |
0% |
It doesn’t matter, I don’t care. I’m betting AP.
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4 |
4.82% |
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05-26-2015, 10:08 PM
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#1
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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How Low Would You Go?
The last two in this position, Chrome and Big Brown, went off at 0.85 and 0.30 respectively. I know that most of you here would pass at those odds, but what is the lowest that you would bite? (for a win bet)
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05-26-2015, 10:20 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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For me I said 4s as I have him at about 3s, same as Materiality and Frosted
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05-27-2015, 07:19 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,590
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Ha ha, 3 chime in @ 10-1. Good luck with that.
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05-27-2015, 10:29 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: NJ/MD
Posts: 1,185
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It wouldn't matter if he's infinity to one. I wouldn't bet him, because he's not winning.
__________________
I'm on twitter: @theyreoff
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05-27-2015, 10:39 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,754
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I'm with andtheyreoff
not winning
keyed for show
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05-27-2015, 11:45 AM
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#6
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andtheyreoff
I wouldn't bet him, because he's not winning.
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Your probably right but damn, every horse has his price.
I would definitely bite at 10-1.
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05-27-2015, 11:47 AM
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#7
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett
Ha ha, 3 chime in @ 10-1. Good luck with that.
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Good luck with 1-1 too. Probably won't get that, but who knows, with Cal. Chrome fresh in everyone's mind, maybe he'll drift up.
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05-27-2015, 06:37 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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I think AP will lose the Belmont...but I must admit that I find the 100/1 odds teasingly inviting.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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05-28-2015, 07:59 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I think AP will lose the Belmont...but I must admit that I find the 100/1 odds teasingly inviting.
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Look out. It's a sucker bet.
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05-28-2015, 08:50 AM
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#10
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Traded By Cubs
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: 2 miles north of Wrigley Field
Posts: 5,339
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I agree on the doubting he'll win the Belmont, and I don't plan on betting him, period. Who will beat him/outlast him I have yet to figure out.
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05-28-2015, 01:28 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'
I agree on the doubting he'll win the Belmont, and I don't plan on betting him, period. Who will beat him/outlast him I have yet to figure out.
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So you are planning on betting against a horse without first considering who he's running against? I'd love to book your bets.
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05-28-2015, 01:35 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
So you are planning on betting against a horse without first considering who he's running against? I'd love to book your bets.
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That's an interesting criticism to be coming from someone who's already indicated in this poll what odds he'd be willing to accept on American Pharoah.
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05-28-2015, 10:21 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Seems to be no shortage of posters in this thread who must
be bracing themselves for a huge payday a week from Saturday.
We all know that AP will be even money, or less, for the Belmont.
Odds for his rivals will, for the most part, be shouting "overlay".
At this point, AP dominates his peers.
His biggest threat is fatigue - the silent killer in the Belmont.
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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05-28-2015, 10:52 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Seems to be no shortage of posters in this thread who must
be bracing themselves for a huge payday a week from Saturday.
We all know that AP will be even money, or less, for the Belmont.
Odds for his rivals will, for the most part, be shouting "overlay".
At this point, AP dominates his peers.
His biggest threat is fatigue - the silent killer in the Belmont.
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Big Brown had dominated his peers and Da'Tara finished his otherwise mediocre career with two lifetime wins.
Smarty Jones had dominated his peers and Birdstone had ran poorly in the Ky Derby.
Spectacular Bid dominated his peers about as thoroughly as is possible, not only before but also after the Belmont Stakes... just not in the Belmont Stakes, which was a problem for anyone who backed him heavily at 1/5. The other three times he faced Coastal in his career he beat him by a total of about 30 lengths-- and Coastal was a genuinely nice horse. Like a lot of people have said: Bid lost, thus ANY horse can lose.
Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer twice and then lost to him by a city block.
Alysheba lost to Bet Twice by two city blocks after defeating him in the Derby and Preakness.
War Emblem was way back at the 70-yard pole when Medaglia D'Oro (and Sarava) arrived at the Belmont finish line, despite having finished well ahead of MDO in the first two legs.
Things change. Things happen. Some of it predictable, some of it not so much. For starters, if some people think that stretching out by 2f-2.5f can't seriously affect the performances, I don't know how they can possibly beat the game on a day-in, day-out basis. Add in the potential for good/bad trip luck, favourable/unfavourable pace, different track, form cycles...
Last edited by RXB; 05-28-2015 at 10:54 PM.
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05-29-2015, 02:10 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,550
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Won't bet him online unless I get 2-1 (which is impossible now).
But if I am on track, then I am not going to care about the odds for buying a potential piece of history at $2.
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