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Old 07-14-2015, 06:22 PM   #271
raybo
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Class,

If you do work for DRF, I'm jealous.
I too was unaware of that, if it is indeed fact.
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Old 07-14-2015, 06:43 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
I'm not knocking Bayesian. I'm happy that it is only stats 101. I forgot most everything else from school.
You don’t need a PhD to understand Bayesian statistics; matter of fact I don’t believe you need any “D” to understand how to describe in particular the system for the foundations using the mathematical language of probability which in general is Bayesian statistics and that is not “stat 101” as you have so wrongfully stated.
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Old 07-14-2015, 06:56 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Does it only happen to me, or do you guys also encounter more than your fair share of "good luck" when you first try out a new and promising idea...only to be disappointed later?

Almost every original handicapping idea that I've ever come up with starts off in the most promising way when I first start testing it...causing me to keep dreaming of horses when I sleep.
YES! I can't tell you how many times from out of nowhere I get a brainstorm with some new number manipulation and right away race after race it's like I struck gold! (Race after race means on paper not wagering) I've noticed though that as time goes on unless I am keeping a record of what I am doing my mind conveniently forgets what doesn't work and I only notice when it does and I think I've cracked the code.
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Old 07-14-2015, 07:34 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by raybo
I too was unaware of that, if it is indeed fact.
Well, he mentioned it in his thread about learning Access if I recall correctly.
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Old 07-14-2015, 07:50 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Raybo,

Once a speed figure is computed it becomes a noun so to speak and measurable. The hypothesis is in measuring speed as an attribute of a horse. A comprehensive figure like BPP is a summation of many hypothetical attributes into one final figure in hopes the whole is greater than any part like speed or class alone would be.
Since you want to be definitional correct; why not go to what is speed/velocity and what is pace?

Since the brilliant minds like Aristotle, Galileo, Newton, Einstein, and others got involved many years ago speed/velocity has been defined as motion and pace as the rate of motion.

Also speed/velocity and pace are interdependent and it doesn’t make any difference if the causation of their motion is by man, animal, or machine.
Therefore we can look at a simple horseracing example depicting this interdependency.

A race has the following characteristics:

Final time = 1 minute, 9 seconds
Race distance = 3960 feet or three-quarters of a mile

Race timed by quarter-mile and final time

Winning Horse and tack weigh 1204 Lbs.

Questions:

What is the time of the race?
Ans. = 69 seconds

What is the speed of the race?
Ans. = Speed is Distance/Time = 57.39 Ft per second

What is the pace of the race?
Ans. = Pace by 1/4m = 23 sec

Going a step further and calculate surface resistivity (Coefficient of Kinetic Friction) or track surface variant we can see the following (calculated in metrics):

Deceleration = Rate of Travel/ Time of travel = 17.50/69 = .253623
Force to decelerate @ .253623m/ sec = 546*.253623 = 239.93 N
Maximum Stopping Force = 546*9.8 = 5350.8 N
Coefficient of Kinetic Friction = .04484 = Force to Decelerate/Maximum Stopping Force
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Old 07-14-2015, 07:59 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
In the end, I handicap by race type. I've said that in this thread and elsewhere. Every attribute has to stand on it's own and have a positive impact value to make it into my comprehensive figure. Trakus sounds interesting, but I haven't finish my R&D with BRIS data and believe I will be finished when I finished with BRIS.
I guess I really don't understand what this means.
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Old 07-14-2015, 08:37 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by traynor
Understand I am not commenting on the every race at every track every day scenario, but on improving the predictability of speed figures. I think that can most usefully be done by considering specific types of races as the first filter to apply. (NOT going backwards and trying to isolate in what types of races final times are most predictive--or seem to be. Finding the types of races first, then searching for ways to improve the performance of speed figures/final times in those specific race types).
Well, these handicappers I've mentioned who believed in speed figures did search for ways to improve the performance of the figures in specific types of races, because they interpreted the speed figure differently. For instance, in a maiden race, I often project that a horse is ready to run a much better figure than it's run before.

The thing is, I was speaking purely of picking winners. This one guy I mentioned, who made a small fortune alone just by selling his picks because he was so good, no sophisticated computer program or any modern handicapping development I've ever seen could pick more winners than him.
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Old 07-14-2015, 08:57 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by pandy
Well, these handicappers I've mentioned who believed in speed figures did search for ways to improve the performance of the figures in specific types of races, because they interpreted the speed figure differently. For instance, in a maiden race, I often project that a horse is ready to run a much better figure than it's run before.

The thing is, I was speaking purely of picking winners. This one guy I mentioned, who made a small fortune alone just by selling his picks because he was so good, no sophisticated computer program or any modern handicapping development I've ever seen could pick more winners than him.
It is the interpretation part that is difficult--not generating the numbers. It is possible (as in being done every day) to code algorithms that reverse-engineer the strategies used by "very good" handicappers to determine how "believable" a number is. If it is "believable" it can be used as part (not all, but part) of the final decision process. That final decision process can also be (as in being done every day) automated almost entirely.

Consider how many on this forum have dabbled in "picking the proper pace line(s)" or "finding the most representative race" for predicting performance. And how many have fiddled around with those pacelines enough to realize that--even when carefully selected--they can "predict" differently when the best recent is used, the average of best two of the last five is used, best recent at this distance is used, and on and on and on.

I wrote a training app (for a blackjack team) to automate the pattern recognition part of "finding predictive pace lines." It was a lot of work, but a good learning experience. It made crystal clear that the number affixed to a horse's race--unless viewed in the context of its performance in that race--was "not very uiseful."
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Old 07-14-2015, 09:10 PM   #279
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at the end of the day, the objective is to make money. i think too much focus is being made regarding speed or performance figs - it's the analysis that separates the wheat from the chaff. I understand data manipulation adds value to the process but is that where the value is if everyone else is looking in that direction? When one first looks at a race, imo, one should focus on the context of the problem - meaning what type of race is this and what variables are most important to this race? a good portion of the time speed figures won't point you to the winner. if making $ is the objective - is there value in this race by focusing on who can finish 2nd or even 3rd? It's always the unknown that the majority shies away from which oftentimes offers the best value.
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Old 07-14-2015, 10:25 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by lamboy
When one first looks at a race, imo, one should focus on the context of the problem - meaning what type of race is this and what variables are most important to this race? a good portion of the time speed figures won't point you to the winner. .
I agree...In a lot of races, depending on type and makeup, speed and or pace can be neutralized to the point that if may be almost irrelevant, as it is just not predictive as some may believe in many scenarios, and can be safely discarded as a winning factor...

This is where a handicapper who is good at identifying where a horse may be in his Form Cycle, and/or what the Trainer's Intentions on Raceday may be (angles)will have a clear edge, and will be the ones who will discover and wager on the nice little bargains that the crowd will hand them from time to time....
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Old 07-14-2015, 11:15 PM   #281
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Originally Posted by LottaKash
I agree...In a lot of races, depending on type and makeup, speed and or pace can be neutralized to the point that if may be almost irrelevant, as it is just not predictive as some may believe in many scenarios, and can be safely discarded as a winning factor...

This is where a handicapper who is good at identifying where a horse may be in his Form Cycle, and/or what the Trainer's Intentions on Raceday may be (angles)will have a clear edge, and will be the ones who will discover and wager on the nice little bargains that the crowd will hand them from time to time....
No matter what our handicapping approach is, there will be plenty of races whose results will leave us scratching our heads. Whether we do "full-dress" handicapping, or handicap with "angles"...we will still end up tearing up our tickets the overwhelming majority of the time. The game isn't as predictable as we'd like it to be. The "angle" player does not necessarily win when the speed/pace handicapper loses...and vice versa. Sometimes...the only players who win are the hunch bettors.
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Old 07-14-2015, 11:24 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by lamboy
at the end of the day, the objective is to make money. i think too much focus is being made regarding speed or performance figs - it's the analysis that separates the wheat from the chaff. I understand data manipulation adds value to the process but is that where the value is if everyone else is looking in that direction? When one first looks at a race, imo, one should focus on the context of the problem - meaning what type of race is this and what variables are most important to this race? a good portion of the time speed figures won't point you to the winner. if making $ is the objective - is there value in this race by focusing on who can finish 2nd or even 3rd? It's always the unknown that the majority shies away from which oftentimes offers the best value.
I think that many would do better (some MUCH better) if they admitted (at least to themselves) that winning a profit is the driver--not "the game" or "the excitement." Those who are only in it "for fun" have just given up on the idea of ever being "good enough" to win consistently and avoid the issue (generally referred to as "denial"). As in "learned helplessness":

"Learned helplessness is a behaviour in which an organism forced to endure aversive, painful or otherwise unpleasant stimuli, becomes unable or unwilling to avoid subsequent encounters with those stimuli, even if they are escapable. Presumably, the organism has learned that it cannot control the situation and therefore does not take action to avoid the negative stimulus."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness

If they can't win, they pretend winning in not important.
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Old 07-14-2015, 11:26 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by traynor
If they can't win, they pretend winning in not important.
I'd just call it sour grapes.
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Old 07-14-2015, 11:26 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by LottaKash
I agree...In a lot of races, depending on type and makeup, speed and or pace can be neutralized to the point that if may be almost irrelevant, as it is just not predictive as some may believe in many scenarios, and can be safely discarded as a winning factor...

This is where a handicapper who is good at identifying where a horse may be in his Form Cycle, and/or what the Trainer's Intentions on Raceday may be (angles)will have a clear edge, and will be the ones who will discover and wager on the nice little bargains that the crowd will hand them from time to time....
Yup.
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Old 07-14-2015, 11:29 PM   #285
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I'd just call it sour grapes.
Won't work. They need an excuse for betting, while avoiding tne "mental pain" of losing. That excuse is that they only bet for "recreation." They become their own worst enemy, because losses bercome increasingly "acceptable."

Sour grapes would be a reason to stop betting entirely.

Last edited by traynor; 07-14-2015 at 11:31 PM.
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