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10-12-2007, 08:57 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
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Hawthorne Derby on Saturday
If Twilight Meteor doesn't fire (4/1, but sure to get pounded down), can a first-time turfer win ? Thoughts ? Anyone think J-L Samyn (  ) can win ?
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10-12-2007, 09:40 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 9,569
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Thoughts
I like Violette's horse!
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10-13-2007, 12:26 AM
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#3
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,917
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I would be surprised if Twilight Meteor is over 9-5 which will be way too low in this field. Of the 1st turfers, Ghazi Up and All I Can Get are bred decently for the sod (James the Greater, not so much), but GU will be compromised by running style, and both will have their hands (hooves) full with the experienced lawn runners.
I'm with Kenwood -- Summer Doldrums has run four straight triple digit CJs and has a strong late kick. A play for me @5-2 or better. My scare horse, however, is Love Dubai. It wouldn't shock me if that one crossed the wire first.
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10-13-2007, 08:51 AM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Twilight Meteor is tough to bet against here. He should be about 2-1 against this field. 2nd race back in his comfort zone and no Nobiz to steal his thunder today.
Doldrums is the other talent in the race. He may be in a form decline.
Samyn on Bold Hawk is a good horse to include underneath. There are a few horses who should be quiting at the end, and Hawk looks like a solid enough horse who has a shot at getting into the trifecta.
Western Prize could cap a tri or super.
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10-13-2007, 01:15 PM
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#5
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Rogers Ranch
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Illinois
Posts: 4
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Hey y'all. I'm new to the board here, but I've been around the boards a few times...(yuk yuk)
I have to go with Summer Doldrums here. He's proven the most of all of these horses. Plus he has won with speed or when rated. Hawthorne's is not an exceptionally fast turf course so if he hangs close he should be able to power past these. He also has Chris Emigh up who is the current leader in Illinois' jockey colony.
I worked at Hawthorne for 10 years until 3 years ago so I'm kinda familiar with the track. You never know a sure thing in horse racing but my trifecta pick is:
10 with 3-4-6-7-9 with 3-4-6-7-9
and
3/9 with 10 with 3-4-6-7-9
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10-13-2007, 01:54 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,599
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I don't typically bet HAW, so I'm not familiar with the turf course(s) there.
I do know, however, that Summer Doldrums is the quintessential suckup horse that basically depends on other horses getting poorer trips. And Twilight Meteor doesn't exactly scare me.
Bold Hawk has some upside. He's still a bit green, and has stretch footwork issues but he's got enough of a late kick to run these down, assuming he gets a decent ride from the Anchor Man. I'd like something near the morning line to bet him, however.
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10-13-2007, 02:05 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
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hawg,
I was gonna risk my reputation ( ) with a pick of Love Dubai. I think he may drift above 20/1, which I would require.
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10-13-2007, 03:13 PM
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#8
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,917
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toe,
I would definitely play it at 20-1 but I don't think that you are going to get that. I don't have the PPs in front of me but if I recall his figs are competitive and is 3 for 7 ITM (no wins, however) on the turf. (Hence my interest. Maybe even a play at 8-1 or better.)
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10-13-2007, 03:28 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
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Voy Por Mas Uno is one of my favorites. I managed to miss out on him BOTH times he won at 16/1 (  ), but I generally look for frontrunners at Arling Town, so the switch to Hawthorne makes her no play for me, barring huge odds.
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10-13-2007, 05:51 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 16,847
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I was liking Bold Hawk till I saw the 2/1 price.
Starvinsky looks much better up there at 7/1.
__________________
When you have to make a choice and don't make it, that is in itself a choice.
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10-13-2007, 05:51 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NY USA
Posts: 974
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The Hawkster
Bold Hawk is going to mow down this group with ease. Ask your computers or tip sheets to focus on the distance. Who is powerful at 9-10F and who has distance issues? If your capping mind or computer or tip sheet is worth the money it should have spit out Bold Hawk as the play of the day. Absolutely powerful kick in the lane is the trump card that is going to win this race. The cutback will accentuate the kick and disappoint those that let jockeycapping dictate their play. Time for a power play.
W #3
EX box 3,9,10
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10-13-2007, 05:55 PM
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#12
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,917
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Uh...If you like Bold Hawk so much why the X box???
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10-13-2007, 05:57 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,336
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VOY POR UNO MAS may well wire them.
Good Luck.
John
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10-13-2007, 06:07 PM
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#14
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
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Change my to  !!!!!
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10-13-2007, 06:10 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NY USA
Posts: 974
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by headhawg
Uh...If you like Bold Hawk so much why the X box???
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I don't know, we can talk about over surf and turf later.
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