The coronavirus

[ElKabong]

https://twitter.com/jonkirbysthlm/st...56980477079552

500 German docs are calling the pandemic "a fake", overblown

"We need to ask 'who profits from this issue' "

Twitter video at the link

[sammy the sage]

You know...George Carlin warned us about this...

YouTube

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

https://twitter.com/jonkirbysthlm/st...56980477079552

500 German docs are calling the pandemic "a fake", overblown

"We need to ask 'who profits from this issue' "

Twitter video at the link

Any doctor that doesn't tow the party line will be stripped of their profession and thrown into the camps.

That is all.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

You posted your fiction #s above to Jay, but I thought I'd give you a reminder of the motorcyclist that "died of covid 19". The #s you and EVERYONE else is providing, is fiction

Jay has no accurate facts or opinions, and neither do you.

I post facts and you Trumpites post an anecdotes and wrong speculation.

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

Jay has no accurate facts or opinions, and neither do you.

I post facts and you Trumpites post an anecdotes and wrong speculation.

facts backed by what?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by davew

facts backed by what?

Unlike you, I link to my sources.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, epidemiologists and medical doctors (and idiot media people) are spending so much time debating what should be happening and making bad predictions based on their own theories they aren't paying enough attention to the what actually "is" happening.

The pattern is similar all over the world.

Once the virus breaks out in an area there is exponential growth in cases until about 10% (give or take) of the population is infected. Then the growth rate starts to decline and flatten. Then as more people get infected the new cases start declining (Texas and Florida are recent examples). Once you get into the 20%-30% range in the area it more or less slows to a trickle (like NY and NJ).

You can slow down or even stop the initial exponential growth for awhile if you lock down quickly and hard (like some countries have done), but it eventually it makes it's way back. Locking down does not stop it. It delays the inevitable unless you want to destroy yourself by locking down forever.

It can well be argued that delays help with hospitalization and ICU issues, buy us time for treatments and vaccines etc... That's all correct. But the standard thinking about this virus has been wrong.

There must be some combination immunity after infection, partial immunity/resistance in some people, or certain people that spread it more readily than others that makes the exponential growth and heard immunity math invalid. Exponential growth slows on it's own in the 10%-20% range and with any help from masks, distancing, and responsible behavior etc.. you can open up without huge impact long before the theory of herd immunity suggests. If you lock down and produce better numbers for awhile, be prepared to lock down for a long time and to self destruct because it's coming back once you open.

I have mentioned this before.

1)-You are not properly factoring mitigation efforts in response to exponential growth.
2)-You do not take a long term view on how serious infectious diseases can be halted in one local and time, to only re-emerge later when it is thought under control nearby.
3)-You must look globally at places where health care systems can not cope leading to re-infection.

Herd immunity does not exist for covid

This is what is happening worldwide. Steady new cases and fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

I have mentioned this before.

1)-You are not properly factoring mitigation efforts in response to exponential growth.
2)-You do not take a long term view on how serious infectious diseases can be halted in one local and time, to only re-emerge later when it is thought under control nearby.
3)-You must look globally at places where health care systems can not cope leading to re-infection.

Herd immunity does not exist for covid

This is what is happening worldwide. Steady new cases and fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

if herd immunity does not exist the virus will be here forever and people who want to be protected will have to take a vaccine shot every 2 months

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

I have mentioned this before.

1)-You are not properly factoring mitigation efforts in response to exponential growth.
2)-You do not take a long term view on how serious infectious diseases can be halted in one local and time, to only re-emerge later when it is thought under control nearby.
3)-You must look globally at places where health care systems can not cope leading to re-infection.

Herd immunity does not exist for covid

This is what is happening worldwide. Steady new cases and fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Mitigation efforts matter in slowing it down, but that doesn't seem to be the whole story.

Places that did not lock down hard show a similar pattern of slowing growth once they get to a certain percentage of the population infected and places that slowly reopen where the virus is still circulating don't experience much growth once they reopen if they got hit hard early. It's places where the infection rate is still low that get hit hard if they open.

There's something wrong the math behind the models that predicted exponential growth until we get to herd immunity.

Most likely it has to do with the fact that not everyone is equally vulnerable and not everyone is an equal spreader. That changes the math for how much and how quickly it spreads.

What's going on globally now is that places with very low infection rates are going through what some of the early hit places already went through.

In the US, NY and NJ etc.. went through it first. Then it was FL, TX, CA etc... Maybe next it will be more rural cities. The same thing is happening globally. But you can already see that NY, NJ has slowed sharply, now FL is starting to slow etc...

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Mitigation efforts matter in slowing it down, but that doesn't seem to be the whole story.

Places that did not lock down hard show a similar pattern of slowing growth once they get to a certain percentage of the population infected and places that slowly reopen where the virus is still circulating don't experience much growth once they reopen if they got hit hard early. It's places where the infection rate is still low that get hit hard if they open.

There's something wrong the math behind the models that predicted exponential growth until we get to herd immunity.

Most likely it has to do with the fact that not everyone is equally vulnerable and not everyone is an equal spreader. That changes the math for how much and how quickly it spreads.

What's going on globally now is that places with very low infection rates are going through what some of the early hit places already went through.

In the US, NY and NJ etc.. went through it first. Then it was FL, TX, CA etc... Maybe next it will be more rural cities. The same thing is happening globally. But you can already see that NY, NJ has slowed sharply, now FL is starting to slow etc...

Instead of assuming the media, epidemiologists and medical professionals are lying, the more rational approach is we just do not understand this disease fully yet.. Your earlier post you speculated it seems to run it's course and declines someway without explaining why or how.

Once the virus breaks out in an area there is exponential growth in cases until about 10% (give or take) of the population is infected. Then the growth rate starts to decline and flatten. Then as more people get infected the new cases start declining (Texas and Florida are recent examples). Once you get into the 20%-30% range in the area it more or less slows to a trickle (like NY and NJ).

Are you implying the disease is not as serious as the "media" and medical community makes it out to be?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Are you implying the disease is not as serious as the "media" and medical community makes it out to be?

He doesn't have to imply it.

It's a ****ing certifiable fact.

And IN FACT, a growing number of the "MEDICAL COMMUNITY" is calling BULLSHIT on much of what you peddle (FEAR).

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

He doesn't have to imply it.

It's a ****ing certifiable fact.

And IN FACT, a growing number of the "MEDICAL COMMUNITY" is calling BULLSHIT on much of what you peddle (FEAR).

I guess I can not convince you the moon landing was not filmed at a movie studio in Burbank Ca.?

One step for a man. Endless bullshit from the fringe truthers.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And IN FACT, a growing number of the "MEDICAL COMMUNITY" is calling BULLSHIT on much of what you peddle (FEAR).

Where do you get that fiction? two wackos in a urgent care facility?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Where do you get that fiction? two wackos in a urgent care facility?

It's been going on since day 1. Your eyes are shut to reality. That's ok. They always have been.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's been going on since day 1. Your eyes are shut to reality. That's ok. They always have been.

Has it ever occurred to you, you live in an alternate universe, anti-scientific bubble, first initiated by Sarah Palin's "lame stream media", and blown up beyond all reason by Trump?