The coronavirus

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

New research indicates that T-Cells play a huge part in immunity and explain why some people are infected badly and others are asymptomatic or have very mild cases. The science is over my head, but I've seen estimates that suggest up to 20%-25% of people are naturally immune, some because of other corona viruses they may have been exposed to in the past.

It is MORE likely their genetic make up is more at the root of that than previous exposure...Probably somewhere in the middle...

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by hcap

Amazing that contrary to these other well understood diseases, the HIT of the croravierus would be that low

...

It's not amazing at all if you're willing to do a little research and apply some critical thinking.

The graphic you posted shows measles with an R0 of between 12 and 18.

Question: What's the R0 for covid-19?

Is ABC News an acceptable source?

ABC News|By Erin Schumaker|May 26, 2020, 2:12 AM|
What is R-naught for the COVID-19 virus and why it's a key metric for re-opening plans:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/r0-cov...ry?id=70868997

For now, scientists have calculated the R0 of the novel coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, meaning each infected individual will infect to two to three additional people, on average.

If measles has an R0 of between 12 and 18:

And if covid-19 has an R0 of between 2 and 3:

And if according to the article posted by RunForTheRoses a percentage of the human population likely enjoys (at least some) immunity from covid-19 as a result of t-cells (some pct of the population has) developed after years of exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold:

And if, because of vaccines, the vast majority of the human population in the US has never been exposed to the diseases in the graphic you posted, meaning that the vast majority of the human population in the US has never developed t-cells for and therefore has zero resistance to any of the diseases in the graphic you posted:

Why do you find it so amazing that the actual HIT (heard immunity threshold) for covid-19 might turn out to be a lot lower than that of measles?


-jp

.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

we are at 1.75% overall in Arizona, and 0.62% if you take since the reopening. I wish they would list death rates by age from the reopening but they only do from the beginning so its tough to make a conclusion.

Yes that would be a good idea to list the death rate but that will not fit the agenda of the media and the Democrats that champion them.

We already got a glimpse of what the liberal media and the Democrat politicians do in the scary, first round of this covid virus pandemic.

At that time when we were told of the thousands that died regularly, the media ignored the fact that most of those deaths were of people 65 and older and had pre-existing coronary or pulmonary issues and diabetes. A big majority were in their 80s.

It was also basically ignored by the media that most of those elderly deaths were in nursing homes -- something that Gov. Andrew Cuomo of NY and Gov. Philip Murphy of my state of NJ were directly responsible for.

But let's not worry any longer. Come Election Day, this covid story will miraculously disappear.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by lansdale

This San Antonio hospital is on the verge of being overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients and starting to be forced to triage new cases -- all too reminiscent of events in NY/NJ a few months back. This is similar to what I'm hearing from friends in Austin and Houston. If the rise in new cases continues to unfold at this pace -- as in NY -- it's going to be difficult for those with non-Covid medical problems from getting access to hospitals -- not only beds, but even space in the ER -- ambulances will start to become scarce. People with non-Covid diseases end up dying in ERs and hospital corridors -- the collateral damage of Covid-19.

What brought this home to me was a convo with a friend -- a retired accountant in suburban Houston who has a wife with multiple cardiac issues. Her condition is serious enough that he and his wife are going to Baton Rouge and are staying with friends to guarantee access to timely medical care until the surge dies down -- hopefully within a month or so. I learned from him that the Texas Medical Center is the biggest collective medical service area in the world -- ca. 10k beds and 100k employees -- and even so, he says that, of those he knows that work there, none have ever seen the medical staff and facilities under this kind of strain.

I know many doctors in the NY area -- some of their friends are still traumatized by the city's Covid-19 rampage -- and during that period they advised everyone they could, to try to seek medical care outside the city if they had urgent or just serious health issues. I would pass along the same advice to anyone in these surge areas of the South and West for as long as it lasts.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jQlTC4sUznM

My Houston friend sent me this article, linked below, to confirm that the situation in the city hospitals have become as bad as he thought it would. The ERs are seriously jammed up and anyone in need of an ambulance may be in for a long wait. Still amazed that they've let things get this bad after seeing what happened in NY. And unlike the NY area, which was on complete lockdown 3 months back, Texas is still mostly open, from what he tells me, so growth of Covid-19 may continue to be exponential for some time. An excerpt from the article re the ER dilemma:

'Although hospital leaders say they are working to provide high-quality care for patients being held in emergency rooms — in part by bringing specialized medical staff and equipment to patients being treated there — studies done before the coronavirus pandemic show that the longer patients stay in ERs, the worse their outcomes.


ICUs and other hospital units are staffed with doctors, nurses and other support personnel who have specialized training and experience caring for critically ill patients in need of specific medical interventions, whereas the mission of emergency department medical workers is to quickly assess patients, stabilize them and get them to where they need to be.

“The problem is you can’t get them to where they need to be, and now it puts the ER doc in the position of having to function like the hospitalist or the intensive care doctor, and that’s not a role that we’re really supposed to be in,” said Dr. Cedric Dark, an emergency physician at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. “The bad thing about having any patient boarded in the emergency department, regardless of the situation, is that it slows down the beginning of care for somebody who needs hospitalization, and the beginning of care for any medical condition is the most crucial period of time.”

The same scenario is playing out at hospitals across the Houston region.'


https://www.propublica.org/article/a...mpression=true

[Redboard]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-...y/ar-BB16AKcd/

Thought it was a hoax.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by Redboard

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-...y/ar-BB16AKcd/

Thought it was a hoax.

And somewhere else, someone in their 30's also died of the flu.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Redboard

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-...y/ar-BB16AKcd/

Thought it was a hoax.

Honestly, at this point, if someone thinks its a hoax this is probably as good an example of natural selection as I can find.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

It's not amazing at all if you're willing to do a little research and apply some critical thinking.

The graphic you posted shows measles with an R0 of between 12 and 18.

Question: What's the R0 for covid-19?

Is ABC News an acceptable source?

ABC News|By Erin Schumaker|May 26, 2020, 2:12 AM|
What is R-naught for the COVID-19 virus and why it's a key metric for re-opening plans:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/r0-cov...ry?id=70868997

If measles has an R0 of between 12 and 18:

And if covid-19 has an R0 of between 2 and 3:

And if according to the article posted by RunForTheRoses a percentage of the human population likely enjoys (at least some) immunity from covid-19 as a result of t-cells (some pct of the population has) developed after years of exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold:

And if, because of vaccines, the vast majority of the human population in the US has never been exposed to the diseases in the graphic you posted, meaning that the vast majority of the human population in the US has never developed t-cells for and therefore has zero resistance to any of the diseases in the graphic you posted:

Why do you find it so amazing that the actual HIT (heard immunity threshold) for covid-19 might turn out to be a lot lower than that of measles?

-jp
.

You choose one extreme with the relatively harmless measles. The lower Ro's of the mumps , polio and small pox is the other end of the spectrum. Of 4- to 7

Your Ro estimate is not conclusive.

What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-...duction-number

The R0 for COVID-19 is a median of 5.7, according to a study published online in Emerging Infectious Diseases. That’s about double an earlier R0 estimate of 2.2 to 2.7


However we will not know more accurately the Ro until 95% of the disease has passed. Be that as it may, your so-called "new research" is alone and unsubstantiated and as I said was presented by an anti-vaxer with an agenda.

Epidemiologists do not consider herd immunity a viable solution

How have we achieved herd immunity for other infectious diseases?
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Measles, mumps, polio, and chickenpox are examples of infectious diseases that were once very common but are now rare in the U.S. because vaccines helped to establish herd immunity. We sometimes see outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases in communities with lower vaccine coverage because they don’t have herd protection. (The 2019 measles outbreak at Disneyland is an example.)

Originally Posted by You

Why do you find it so amazing that the actual HIT (heard immunity threshold) for covid-19 might turn out to be a lot lower than that of measles

? Because it goes against what we know of other infectious diseases. Why are you so willing to buy into speculation?

You have no valid peer-reviewed "new research"

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

What's happening now is that we are getting ROLLING spikes in different areas.

You can't look at the data on a country level.

Some areas of the country have an infection rate in low single digits and some areas (like NYC) have infection rates in the 25% range and there's everything in between.

The areas that were hit first and hard are doing WAY better now.

Some areas that didn't get hit hard early are getting hit now instead.

I would bet that states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California where the outbreaks and spikes are now are about half way to the point they have to get until things start turning around. Then cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will start dropping fast for them. Give it 4-6 weeks and we'll be talking about how Florida is making a huge comeback.

Then it might move to more rural states that haven't been hit yet and so on until the nation as a whole is done.

You made a bet we were "crushing" the virus some weeks back. The current spikes are tremendous on a daily basis. Hospitalizations and fatalities are lagging indicators. But they are beginning to catch up.

The most current......
Coronavirus Cases:
3,291,786
Deaths:
136,671

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

The current spikes are tremendous on a daily basis. Hospitalizations and fatalities are lagging indicators. But they are beginning to catch up.

I sure hope you're right Harry. Tremendous indeed. I sure wish deaths would go up faster so that I can wring my hands some more. We can't let this pandemic go to waste with infections only.

[hcap]

Hard to hide the truth....

Broad disapproval for Trump's handling of coronavirus, race relations: Poll
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/broa...ry?id=71704889

[hcap]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I sure hope you're right Harry. Tremendous indeed. I sure wish deaths would go up faster so that I can wring my hands some more. We can't let this pandemic go to waste with infections only.

Duh!

tremendous
[ trih-men-duh s ]
SEE SYNONYMS FOR tremendous ON THESAURUS.COM
adjective
extraordinarily great in size, amount, or intensity: a tremendous ocean liner;

Donald the False: tremendous dolt and liar.

Tom, did you look at the thumbnail of daily cases I attached in #6084 ?

[GMB@BP]

Our local paper has moved way left, but they have put out some decent stuff when they just do straight reporting.

This article sums up where Arizona is at right now fighting the virus, how a likely more aggressive mutation with less lethal is the culprit, along with obviously personal choices.

And the vaccine hope is not the end all be all due to the mutations.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news...us/5410710002/

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Our local paper has moved way left

Another way of saying that they are doing less candy coating,
relaying more facts, and telling the truth for a change.

Good for them

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Another way of saying that they are doing less candy coating,
relaying more facts, and telling the truth for a change.

Good for them

truth is in the eye of the beholder.