Quick Bris question

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Tom

But if a need the lead horse cannot get the lead at the first call, he will not have it at the second call. The first call sets up the flow of the race. QSP can tell you how crowded that point will be and how hard the early horses will have to work to get free.

I see many races where a P horse will have the best F1 ratings, but it will not take that lead. The QSP and P designation tell me that part of it. If all I had were the F1 ratings to go by, I would making a lot of pace errors.

Yes...relying on the pace ratings alone isn't the answer, because some pressers do show the best pace ratings...even though they never take the early lead. Perhaps a combination of speed points and pace figures might be the better option. Use the speed points to see how the quarter mile will go...and then use the half-mile pace ratings to see if the scenario figures to change as the race continues to unfold.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

The main problem with Quiren Points is that they sometimes point to a front runner who by those numbers should get an easy lead, but doesn't because the horse just plain is not fast enough to beat out lower point horses. Quirin points tell you how it likes to race, but not how it will actually race.

Quirin nor Brisnet have suggested that speed points could be used in isolation. I have found that the needed inherent speed/velocities must be there, or your pace projections will be inaccurate, and I'm sure CJ believes the same way, and probably includes that in the Pace Projecter for TFUS. You just can't do half a job, in anything, and expect to be accurate. I use running styles, speed points, and adjusted fractional velocities for pace projection in my program (possible pace matchups), for eliminations from win contention. I would never use just running styles and speed points for that.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the main problem with the Quirin Speed Points is that they focus entirety on the quarter-mile of the sprint...and the quarter-mile leader will often get swallowed-up by a faster horse by the time the half mile comes around. Taking the lead at the quarter mile, and controlling the early pace, aren't the same thing.

I think that is the crux of using speed points. In order for a horse to get position to take or press the lead by the 2nd call, it must get a decent start and early run to establish a competitive position at the first call in order to navigate the turn and be in position to challenge for the lead by the 2nd call. 1st call isn't everything but it is more important than the 2nd call, if you're talking about number of winners. Horses that take the lead by the 1st call win more races than horses that first take the lead by the 2nd call. The work has been done to verify that already, Dave S has studied this thoroughly.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tom

But if a need the lead horse cannot get the lead at the first call, he will not have it at the second call. The first call sets up the flow of the race. QSP can tell you how crowded that point will be and how hard the early horses will have to work to get free.

I see many races where a P horse will have the best F1 ratings, but it will not take that lead. The QSP and P designation tell me that part of it. If all I had were the F1 ratings to go by, I would making a lot of pace errors.

I agree. You have to look at running styles, speed points, and actual speed/velocities, none of those in isolation will help you much. Many horses can run fast for a short period of time, but their running style tells you if it usually displays that speed. Some E horses don't have as much speed but because of their running style they will try to compete early anyway (false pace horse), and force the pace even though it spells their doom. But, that false pace horse can also spell the doom of others that get forced by that false pace.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by ebcorde

what I do is compare Early Pace figures to Quirin run style and speed points

Of course, I do the same thing but use my adjusted fractional velocities instead of pace figures. All 3 things should be part of the pace projection; running styles, speed points, and pace speed/velocities.