High volume vs low volume bettors

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Attended a gathering of about 25 horseplayers recently and I observed some distinct behavior among the players. Some played what appeared to be every race available and multiple tracks , while others gradually played less races. Still there was a couple, at best, myself included, that made a maximum of two or three trips to the betting window.

The reason why I point these betting patterns out is to find what is the most profitable way of playing the races. I understand the principle of playing only with an edge and the more edges you have uncovered the higher volume of wagers for the day. Can the opposite be true and are there still some very infrequent low volume players out there that can wait for the occasional wagering opportunity be it once a day or so and some days no plays?

Again when you wait for the perceived ( perfect spot), for wagering you are subject to an unexpected incident that would affect your outcome ( jockey error, bad trips etc) when you put all your eggs in one basket so to speak. where as the disciplined higher volume player is not so affected by the bad luck wager.

just my thoughts

[thaskalos]

IMO, it's imperative that we find a betting style which suits our temperament and personality. Some players can wait all day for a couple of "sure things"...while others can't. I do know, however, that those who only bet a few races in an afternoon cannot possibly keep score of their results by the day. If you hate losing days at the track...then betting on a few "sure things" isn't for you.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The number of players waiting for the right spot ( price, paddock inspection, latest track bias, etc ) and then wagering to win are in the minority except with the very controlled disciplined players who can recognize a superior spot for wagering and hoping to get the right price after the late money arrives.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

The number of players waiting for the right spot ( price, paddock inspection, latest track bias, etc ) and then wagering to win are in the minority except with the very controlled disciplined players who can recognize a superior spot for wagering and hoping to get the right price after the late money arrives.

The bad thing is that the "late money" usually arrives as the horses are rounding the far turn.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The bad thing is that the "late money" usually arrives as the horses are rounding the far turn.

Ha Ha. How true! thask, your previous statement makes sense playing to suit your own style and temperament is the best way. However, one must be true to him or herself and realize success in this game requires doing the right thing ( discipline, patience, control) all of the time and not most of the time...but that's another thread all in itself.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Ha Ha. How true! thask, your previous statement makes sense playing to suit your own style and temperament is the best way. However, one must be true to him or herself and realize success in this game requires doing the right thing ( discipline, patience, control) all of the time and not most of the time...but that's another thread all in itself.

Yes...I agree. Discipline is a must if we aim to profit from this game. But my many years at the track have convinced me that what we call "discipline" is sometimes only FEAR, in disguise. The players that I see who make many bets a day aren't doing it because they find many "playable races"; they do it because they lack the courage to make sizable bets on the few good plays that they DO find. They want to bet $200 in an afternoon...but they'd rather "spread the risk" by betting $10 on each of 20 races...instead of betting $50 on each of the 4 races that they REALLY like. And the guys who wait all day for the "sure thing" are usually doing it because they are paralyzed by the thought of losing.

To borrow a poker term...the player should be "selectively AGGRESSIVE". He should wait for his spot...but then he should POUNCE on it when he finds it. If he waits all day for his spot only to "wimp-out" on his wager, then he isn't "disciplined". He is just scared.

[no breathalyzer]

this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease. My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Good points. I like to use the phrase: "absolute unbreakable discipline and loss acceptance while in total control of myself and my wagers - at all times resisting the temptation of a guilty action/reaction bet" This is the mantra I used successfully in my early days of 'the battle' with discipline/self control. It worked as the rush of the result was dissipated and the control continued. Like training a muscle the more this exercise was executed the more the discipline grew.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease. My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

You NEED TO STOP the action bets and get a log book and write down all of your wagers in this book and the reasons why you wagered on them. This will stop the 'action bet syndrome' and nothing beats accurate record keeping. This technique has worked for a number of players with the willingness to adhere to this method and really want to change their betting habits.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Attended a gathering of about 25 horseplayers recently and I observed some distinct behavior among the players. Some played what appeared to be every race available and multiple tracks , while others gradually played less races. Still there was a couple, at best, myself included, that made a maximum of two or three trips to the betting window.

The reason why I point these betting patterns out is to find what is the most profitable way of playing the races. I understand the principle of playing only with an edge and the more edges you have uncovered the higher volume of wagers for the day. Can the opposite be true and are there still some very infrequent low volume players out there that can wait for the occasional wagering opportunity be it once a day or so and some days no plays?

Again when you wait for the perceived ( perfect spot), for wagering you are subject to an unexpected incident that would affect your outcome ( jockey error, bad trips etc) when you put all your eggs in one basket so to speak. where as the disciplined higher volume player is not so affected by the bad luck wager.

just my thoughts

You raised the ultimate question in horserace gambling and it is "how do I bet?"

This question in general can be answered in one of two ways; either random or conditional.

This betting decision is different from the "type of betting" decision which revolves around straight bets and exotics.

In my own case, I am a "conditional" bettor who make straight win bets only and I do that about 60 times per year, typically at Saratoga and Belmont plus the TC and BC races.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by Cratos

You raised the ultimate question in horserace gambling and it is "how do I bet?"

This question in general can be answered in one of two ways; either random or conditional.

This betting decision is different from the "type of betting" decision which revolves around straight bets and exotics.

In my own case, I am a "conditional" bettor who make straight win bets only and I do that about 60 times per year, typically at Saratoga and Belmont plus the TC and BC races.

Cratos,

You are in my example of a very disciplined player with all of the essential tools necessary in order to succeed. Your focus is on doing the things you need to do for success...hats off to you and continued success!

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Cratos,

You are in my example of a very disciplined player with all of the essential tools necessary in order to succeed. Your focus is on doing the things you need to do for success...hats off to you and continued success!

Thanks and I have always stated that no matter how good a handicapper you are; you must have discipline and patience in your wagering.

[raybo]

Discipline applies to all facets of racing: doing your homework before the races start (including regular maintenance/analysis of your method), not taking shortcuts during the handicapping process, staying with your method if that method has proven to be profitable, passing or betting according to what you know you should be doing, selecting the proper bet type, proper bet amount, keeping records of all bets, etc.. In other words, you have to have the discipline to work a method that has proven itself, regardless of what that method is, if it says pass, then pass, if it says play, then play, etc.. In all facets, "Dance with who brung ya", but continue to do your due diligence in case a better dancer becomes available or the music changes.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by raybo

Discipline applies to all facets of racing: doing your homework before the races start (including regular maintenance/analysis of your method), not taking shortcuts during the handicapping process, staying with your method if that method has proven to be profitable, passing or betting according to what you know you should be doing, selecting the proper bet type, proper bet amount, keeping records of all bets, etc.. In other words, you have to have the discipline to work a method that has proven itself, regardless of what that method is, if it says pass, then pass, if it says play, then play, etc.. In all facets, "Dance with who brung ya", but continue to do your due diligence in case a better dancer becomes available or the music changes.

I understand what you are saying, but my focus on the OP's inquiry was the wagering/betting and my thought process was how do the bettor manage expectation and my response to that question again would be discipline and patience.

This is not to say that a bettor shouldn't be discipline with his/her handicapping, but to say that winning wagering is the "expectation" of their handicapping effort.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease. My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

Ask yourself this question. If you weren't allowed to watch the next race you bet on, would you still bet?