Curse Nonsense

[Denny]

Thank goodness we can stop hearing that curse nonsense anymore from turf writers.

They'll have to find some other thing to write about next year instead of always falling back on that.

Please come up with something more interesting next year - and actually meaningful, instead of relying on some old nonsense that was irrelevant to today's game.

PS. Justify ran TWICE as an actual 2 year old. In REAL LIFE terms since he was born on March 28, 2015. His first two races, he was still two.

In case someone thinks I'm just saying this now. I'm NOT. I wrote about it in blog somewhere else - before this year's Derby.

[spiketoo]

Well, I don't remember hearing anything the past couple years on dosage so there's always hope.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Denny

Thank goodness we can stop hearing that curse nonsense anymore from turf writers.

They'll have to find some other thing to write about next year instead of always falling back on that.

Please come up with something more interesting next year - and actually meaningful, instead of relying on some old nonsense that was irrelevant to today's game.

PS. Justify ran TWICE as an actual 2 year old. In REAL LIFE terms since he was born on March 28, 2015. His first two races, he was still two.

In case someone thinks I'm just saying this now. I'm NOT. I wrote about it in blog somewhere else - before this year's Derby.

Its not a curse but a well known fact that horses that with limited experience usually dont do well in the derby.

Of course this year chalkie came in.

I would still bet against Justify types over horses with more experience next year. and the year after that.....

One exception to the rule doesnt negate the o for 45 before justify comes in.

youd still be way behind in your overall betting, betting such horses.

Allan

[Tom]

The only one REAL curse we had to deal with this year was LoneF

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Its not a curse but a well known fact that horses that with limited experience usually dont do well in the derby.

Of course this year chalkie came in.

I would still bet against Justify types over horses with more experience next year. and the year after that.....

One exception to the rule doesnt negate the o for 45 before justify comes in.

youd still be way behind in your overall betting, betting such horses.

Allan

It was a well known fact until the last couple of decades, when inexperienced horses started doing just fine.

Either things changed, or the prior statistics were due to random variance and a small sample, or both.

Either way, it's not a good idea to keep on using repudiated theories. Just handicap it as a normal horse race.

[Denny]

The best horse won. He was undefeated and was the fastest horse in the race - with the best trainer to boot.

Had nothing to do with whether he raced last year.

It's irrelevant in today's game - and it will occur more often now.

Adapt your handicapping accordingly or lose.

I considered Justify a virtual lock - had him at EVEN-Money on my line.
(Would have made a killing if I was able to use an Exchange.)

I made Mendelssohn at 25/1, for example, to start. Would have dropped him to 15, then 10 as the money poured in.

[Tom]

youd still be way behind in your overall betting, betting such horses.

First off, no one could have bet all those horses. And you are suggesting that that be the only criteria used.

How many of those horses had the resume of Justify going into the Derby - top Beyer fig, dominating win over the up to then main contender, Baffert as a trainer?

Looking at it like that, you are 100% with the angle.

Best stick to factors that really impact a race.
The curse was not a factor, just an observation. A symptom.

[thaskalos]

These curses aren't to be taken seriously. The Chicago Cubs proved that a couple years ago.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Tom

First off, no one could have bet all those horses. And you are suggesting that that be the only criteria used.

How many of those horses had the resume of Justify going into the Derby - top Beyer fig, dominating win over the up to then main contender, Baffert as a trainer?

Looking at it like that, you are 100% with the angle.

Best stick to factors that really impact a race.
The curse was not a factor, just an observation. A symptom.

Curlin, bodie. Need I go on.....

Allan

[BlueChip@DRF]

And thank God the Storm Cat curse can be done away with. I mean, yes, the line has not won the Derby before this year, but they have always been right there in the money. It was just a matter of time.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Curlin, bodie. Need I go on.....

Allan

Yes - who are the over 49 who looked like Justify.
Curlin - two weeks later he has suddenly overcome the curse?
and then relapses three weeks later and gets beat by a girl?

Come on, this stuff is nonsense nowadays.
Having 20 horses in the gate is the reAl curse of the Derby.
That, and running it at Churchill.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Tom

Yes - who are the over 49 who looked like Justify.
Curlin - two weeks later he has suddenly overcome the curse?
and then relapses three weeks later and gets beat by a girl?

Come on, this stuff is nonsense nowadays.
Having 20 horses in the gate is the reAl curse of the Derby.
That, and running it at Churchill.

Every race a horse runs exponentially helps a horse with experience.

Justify will run better in the Preakness.

Allan

[Tom]

You won't see 5-2 on him.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Tom

You won't see 5-2 on him.

2-5 maybe. LOL

Allan

[metro]

Justify didn't break the curse he crushed it by seven weeks.