Least well understood type of race

[podonne]

I'm guessing that 6F dirt races are a pretty well explored\understood. Mid priced claiming races at major tracks. Curious if there are type of races that are particuarily difficult to figure out and\or haven't been explored by all the handicapping books out there.

I've heard turf sprints are tough. I would assume that maiden races are pretty difficult since there are so few past performances to go on.

Any that come to mind?
Podonne

[pele polo]

OC/n1x at mid to high end tracks.

[Some_One]

poly/turf routes

[cj]

Allowance races for lightly raced horses.

[JackS]

I second Alw races. Ninety percent of these runners are future claimers.

[thaskalos]

Turf races.

I don't think late speed on the turf is the force that most of the players think it is...

[salty]

allowance n1x hardest conditions for me at least


maiden races are tough depending on the type:
2 year old maidens around this time of year at the spa can be difficult

maiden special weights are somewhat tough if there are multiple first time starters

maiden claimers are much easier


low level 5k and under claimers are tough if there aren't any standout possibilities

[podonne]

Allowance races seem to be a consistent theme so far.

Just for my own curiosity I ran a bunch of tests last night (still running) to measure the average winner's odds for various combinations of surface, distance, race type, purse, etc... I only have 26K races in there from late 2008, but if anything seems particularly high average odds with 100 or so races, I'll report it.

I can probably add n1x as a filter.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by podonne

Allowance races seem to be a consistent theme so .

Interesting. My attention is drawn to allowance races, just behind the MSW.

I'd say the starter allowance on turf at minor tracks can be challenging, especially if the condition is too high in value.

[pele polo]

Originally Posted by pondman

I'd say the starter allowance on turf at minor tracks can be challenging, especially if the condition is too high in value.

Good one.

[VastinMT]

Non-cashers. Can't beat 'em.

[Overlay]

Every individual handicapper has a category of race that is hardest to figure, but (from a more universal, objective standpoint) what race type or category do current statistics show as having the lowest percentage of winning favorites?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Every individual handicapper has a category of race that is hardest to figure, but (from a more universal, objective standpoint) what race type or category do current statistics show as having the lowest percentage of winning favorites?

My guess would be 12+ horse fields...regardless of track, surface or distance.

[podonne]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Every individual handicapper has a category of race that is hardest to figure, but (from a more universal, objective standpoint) what race type or category do current statistics show as having the lowest percentage of winning favorites?

Average final odds is easier for my dataset but I could get others. Which do you think is a better measure of "difficult"?

I can think of a few:

• Average final odds of the winner
• The percent of races won by the favorite
• The impact value of being the favorite

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My guess would be 12+ horse fields...regardless of track, surface or distance.

I intended to focus with my question more on class, running surface, and distance, while assuming races with equal field sizes. It would intuitively seem that, given any group of races that have the same combination of surface, class, track configuration, and distance conditions, the percentage of winning favorites would progressively increase as field size got smaller.