Florida Derby

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Beyer 110

I can't remember seeing one of those in a major prep in a long time. Takes me back a decade or more. 102's seem to be the clubhouse leaders most years more recently.

There won't be any Baffert speed in his next race, which will be useful to his chances.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I can't remember seeing one of those in a major prep in a long time. Takes me back a decade or more. 102's seem to be the clubhouse leaders most years more recently.

There won't be any Baffert speed in his next race, which will be useful to his chances.

Was thinking the same, and went back through it to find out otherwise.

2022: Mo Donegal and Taiba 111
2020: Tiz The Law 115 (unfair as that was ran in September due to Covid)
2018: Justify 114
2008: Big Brown 110
2006: Sinister Minister 116 Sweetnorthernsaint 114
2005: Bellamy Road 115
2004: The Cliff's Edge 115 Lion Heart 114
2003: Empire Maker and Funny Cide 113
2001: Millenium Wind 115, Keats 113, Congaree 111
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus 110

[rastajenk]

I sure don't remember Mo and Taiba lighting it up. Without looking, I could have given Justify a shot at a big number. But Big Brown and beyond was exactly what I had in mind.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Was thinking the same, and went back through it to find out otherwise.

2022: Mo Donegal and Taiba 111
2020: Tiz The Law 115 (unfair as that was ran in September due to Covid)
2018: Justify 114
2008: Big Brown 110
2006: Sinister Minister 116 Sweetnorthernsaint 114
2005: Bellamy Road 115
2004: The Cliff's Edge 115 Lion Heart 114
2003: Empire Maker and Funny Cide 113
2001: Millenium Wind 115, Keats 113, Congaree 111
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus 110

Where did you pull these from. I’m seeing different numbers? Were they adjusted at some point?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Where did you pull these from. I’m seeing different numbers? Were they adjusted at some point?

You are 100% correct.

Those are Bris #'s and not Beyer numbers.

[Bullet Plane]

Since 2000:

You have to go back to Materiality in 2015 with 110 BSF.

Then, back to 2009 to Quality Road who got 111 BSF.

I thought it was Big Brown, but he only got a 106 BSF in 2008.

So, during the last 24 years there has been only two.

That was one hell of a race!

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Since 2000:

You have to go back to Materiality in 2015 with 110 BSF.

Then, back to 2009 to Quality Road who got 111 BSF.

I thought it was Big Brown, but he only got a 106 BSF in 2008.

So, during the last 24 years there has been only two.

That was one hell of a race!

Now those make a lot more sense . Thank you. Materiality was exactly who I was thinking of with a recent big Beyer fig well into the 100s.

Bellamy Road got a ridiculous number in the 2005 Wood Memorial, and I believe Andy Beyer took quite a bit of heat for it after he flopped in the Derby.

When Bellamy Road crushed the field in the 2005 Wood Memorial, he received a 120 Beyer Figure — a number that was 24 points higher than his previous best and one that he was never able to duplicate (in fairness, he only raced twice after the Wood).

https://usracing.com/news/features/beyer-speed-figures

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Beyer 110

He's obviously fast, but I'm still not sure how he's good he is.

How is he going to react in a large Derby field where he's less likely to get loose against weaker or stalk in moderate fractions with a clean trip on a track conducive to speed?

For me, the difference between horses that are fast and the very best horses is overcoming adversity (against a bias, against the pace/flow, used wide, trouble etc..) and still running fast. There are plenty of horses that run very fast when they get things their own way that can't do it when used hard against tougher competition. I'm not sure I want to bet against him enthusiastically, but I'm not fully convinced either.

You bet the race as if he’s not going to get the trip he wants, but you don’t put as much money on the line. Obviously because he has the ability to blow the race up at odds that make his win chances an underlay. Hopefully he gets an inside post that makes it more likely he gets bothered or is forced to go too fast avoiding it. He could set it up for an unlikely result like Rich Strike.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

When Bellamy Road crushed the field in the 2005 Wood Memorial, he received a 120 Beyer Figure — a number that was 24 points higher than his previous best and one that he was never able to duplicate (in fairness, he only raced twice after the Wood).

I was of the opinion that the track was favoring speed that day at AQU. What threw people off a bit on the bias was that the jockeys realized it was speed favoring and started riding way more aggressively. So a couple of very fast paced races were won by closers, but the track was still favoring speed and more than likely helped carry Bellamy Road to a much bigger figure than he would have earned under more honest conditions. I keyed against him in the Derby where not only did I think his Wood was overrated by speed figures, but he faced a tough pace and ground setup. He was good though, just not 120 good.

[Bullet Plane]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Since 2000:

You have to go back to Materiality in 2015 with 110 BSF.

Then, back to 2009 to Quality Road who got 111 BSF.

I thought it was Big Brown, but he only got a 106 BSF in 2008.

So, during the last 24 years there has been only two.

That was one hell of a race!

Those were BSF's for the Florida Derby, others follow:

Arkansas Derby: 0

Louisiana Derby: 0

Blue Grass: 2006 Sinister Minister 116, 2004 Cliffs Edge 111, 2001 Millennium

Wind 114

Wood: 2005 Bellamy Road 120, 2003 Empire Maker 111, 2000 Fug Peg 111.

I heard an interview on the Steve Byk show with Beyer, on Monday, and he said he consulted with his partners and they all agreed, so he feels the number is very solid.

So, the Florida Derby has the most recent fast races.

Materiality had run a 102 prior to the Florida Derby. He got a bad break and was shuffled back in the Kentucky Derby. His next race was the Belmont, and he was retired with an injury after the race. So, he didn't really have a chance to validate the figure.

As for Quality Road, he was to later get a monster 121 figure in the Donn Handicap.

[rastajenk]

Ten Most Wanted and War Emblem got big figs in the Illinois Derby 2002/03. I think Sweetnorthernsaint a few years later did too.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Beyer 110

He's obviously fast, but I'm still not sure how he's good he is.

How is he going to react in a large Derby field where he's less likely to get loose against weaker or stalk in moderate fractions with a clean trip on a track conducive to speed?

For me, the difference between horses that are fast and the very best horses is overcoming adversity (against a bias, against the pace/flow, used wide, trouble etc..) and still running fast. There are plenty of horses that run very fast when they get things their own way that can't do it when used hard against tougher competition. I'm not sure I want to bet against him enthusiastically, but I'm not fully convinced either.

FWIW, I have it basically at 6.25 now which pairs up with his 6 in the BC. Very solid number no doubt about it but with Grade one par at 5.5-ish it's giving you a really good idea of what's behind him. That lot probably need not bother. If I recall I had Forte pretty much string together 6's in like 3 straight races and then put up a 7 in FlaDerby. I couldn't really pick against him with that line going into KyDerby but scratched out anyway. Prob best as I think Mage might have moved forward to a 5.

Muth is actually stringing together 9s by comparison with the 8 as a top in his third start, Bob will hit next level though, just when you think you have him pegged he'll hang up a 5 or a 6.