It's Pletcher's Derby

[porchy44]

Pletcher has a leading four horses in the field: Magnum Moon, Audible, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy — three of which will be in the the second gate. Pletcher won last year with Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver.

I will be playing Audible (Castellano) and Vino Rosso (Velasquez). Both have great Jockeys.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by porchy44

I will be playing Audible (Castellano) and Vino Rosso (Velasquez). Both have great Jockeys.

Audible's pedigree makes me question his stamina. His jockey was wise to settle well off the fast pace last out, but I wonder if he will try the same thing here, possibly giving the colt too much to do or possibly moving too early (he's had the lead at the stretch call in his last 3 regardless of early position). Seems to have some tactical speed if he wants to use it. Audible often looks like he's struggling on the far turn, yet has won his races by open lengths.

I like Vino Rosso for the most part, but don't like that he was lugging in in the Wood. Post puts him at risk for going very wide into the first turn and perhaps throughout.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by porchy44

Pletcher has a leading four horses in the field: Magnum Moon, Audible, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy — three of which will be in the the second gate. Pletcher won last year with Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver.

I will be playing Audible (Castellano) and Vino Rosso (Velasquez). Both have great Jockeys.

How much ground loss are you penciling in for Vino with Velazquez aboard? He could run the best figure (but most likely won't) and be out of the money....

[f2tornado]

After I'll Have Another won from the 19 path I vowed to not let an outside post sway me from a selection. There have been no shortage of outside winners over the years. I recall back in the day when the trainers picked the post one of them picked the 16 hole. I don't think the 18 hole hurts a horse like Vino Rosso as much as it would a front running type like Promises Fulfilled. It might even be a blessing in disguise as he is likely afforded a clean break while a demo derby unfolds to his inside. Vino is will be sitting behind the leaders and JV is likely to provide a solid ride. The pacers and closers are most likely going to go wide at some point for a passing lane anyway. Vino remains my top selection.

[Robert Fischer]

Post is actually a good fit for John Velazquez and Vino Rosso.

His strength as a rider is playing the outside on an extended sprint/1-turnMile and letting the pace set up in front of him.

The Derby is not an extended sprint, but there's about 2 furlongs before they hit the first turn turn.

This is also the established running style of Vino Rosso, so it seems like the most likely scenario.

He'll probably be 4-5 wide or so entering the first turn, but shouldn't be knocked-out unless the field bunches up unexpectedly.

The issue that Vino has, is that he'll have to wait his turn. Justify, and probably Bolt, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn and friends will get first run at this. Unless the pace comes back that's a disadvantage for the win... But it's possible that he's just the best, and none of the forwardly placed horses have what it takes to sustain a bid.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The issue that Vino has, is that he'll have to wait his turn. Justify, and probably Bolt, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn and friends will get first run at this. Unless the pace comes back that's a disadvantage for the win... But it's possible that he's just the best, and none of the forwardly placed horses have what it takes to sustain a bid.

Excellent note. And while Vino showed solid closing speed in the Wood it wasn't any better than the others you noted. He merely has the pedigree to sustain the run through an extra panel, has a Derby winning rider who can time the move properly, and has room to pop a big figure. He will need to settle in position without being more than about five lengths off the leaders at the 3/4 pole otherwise horses like Bolt and Justify seemingly showed enough late speed to come home.

The race usually doesn't run the way I envision. There's often a trainer or two trying new tactics. Even Baffert is seemingly training Justify to settle back a bit. I still figure PF will dart and Justify will basically inherit the next spot whether he wants it or not. If he breaks a step slow like he did his first two starts then Flameaway will get the spot. Bolt can show some early foot and I see him sitting just behind Justify once again. Good Magic should be in the vicinity as well. No excuses for these horses barring a bad bump at the break. The first 1/4 should be interesting as they string out then it will be a half mile jog. Most of the field runs slow early/fast late and will position themselves for the move between the 3/4 and mile pole. It smells like a nice setup for one of the horses sitting not too far behind the lead crew. Magic, Vino, and perhaps Audible come to mind.

[JustRalph]

I like the way Vino finished in the Wood, including the gallop out.

I have a strict rule of never betting a horse that was lugging in or out in their last race. But this horse seemed to recover from it very well, as if it wasn’t fatigue. Tough to read

[Blenheim]

VR needs a good pace and will probably get it.

However, if he is shuffled too far back early, he'll have to expend energy between the 4 and 6 to get position; expending energy between the 4 and 6 compromises his late kick. Critical for him to be sittin' tight at the 4.

[Grits]

It was Pletcher's Derby a lot of years.

Then, it wasn't.

About 2 minutes and change later.

[yankeelpn]

Playing a simple trifecta:
1. Vino Rosso, Enticed
2. Vino Rosso, Enticed
3. All = $36

[porchy44]

Brisnet has Vino Rosso as an (S4). Sustained running style with 4 speed points.
Does anyone happen to have at their disposal the last year A Derby winner had a "S" running style designated by Brisnet ?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Did anyone mention Good Magic?

First, he's a Curlin (same as Vino Rossi). He is one of the horses with breeding that gives him a good shot at the distance. He used the same pattern last year to win the BC Juvenile. Two preps and then the big effort. Finally, his trainer, Chad Brown, is superb at bringing a horse to big races in top condition. He'll be on my tickets.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I also wanted to mention Solomini. He had all sorts of trouble in his last and should be monster odds. I don't think he's a winner, but I think he has a shot at one of the tri/super backhole spots.

I know I'm not going to put Justify on top, but I still don't have a final betting strategy. In any case it will include Good Magic and Solomini.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by porchy44

Brisnet has Vino Rosso as an (S4). Sustained running style with 4 speed points.
Does anyone happen to have at their disposal the last year A Derby winner had a "S" running style designated by Brisnet ?

Street Sense

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Grits

It was Pletcher's Derby a lot of years.

Then, it wasn't.

About 2 minutes and change later.

Brutal!