Breeders Cup

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I'm against Accelerate. Sadler probably doesn't fare as well outside California, and this horse did look bad in the Awesome Again, despite winning.

I'm trying to reserve judgement on the Sadler-ship issue. He doesn't appear to do as well outside of CA, but he also doesn't ship horses at the same rate as some of the other SoCal trainers. The last time he shipped a horse anywhere off the west coast was the day before the Preakness. He's had several hundred starters so far in 2018, but just 4 have shipped east (and 2 of those only went as far as Sunland). The one time Accelerate himself shipped east he ran a winning-type of race; he just got outgunned by a horse primed to pop (City of Light).

Having said that I'd need decent odds to bet Accelerate in the Classic, simply because the potential field looks competitive and evenly matched (and the BC is not at DMR this year). part of the reason he may have looked "bad" in the AA is that it wasn't run at that particular track.

[papillon]

By your logic, he should have won the DCDM last year by a football field instead of finishing up the track.

Sadler has had severe BC-itis for a long time now, regardless of whether the race is at SA or Del Mar or anwhere else. It isn't the competition, most of the horses he races against are the same ones he's raced against all year.

If he wins the BCC, Accelerate likely is the only truely naturally talented horse in the race, even if it turns out uglier than the AA.

Since the Masochistic rule, a lot of horses suddenly develope Octoberitis--they either take to their beds, their sheds, or they all of a sudden seem very ordinary, while those horses chronically finishing behind them suddenly seem very special.

YMMV and likely does.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I'm against Accelerate. Sadler probably doesn't fare as well outside California, and this horse did look bad in the Awesome Again, despite winning.

And West Coast looked even worse despite coming in second, which he only re- inherited by default.

Given WC's supposed level of natural talent, even coming off of a long layoff, he should have won that race. Absolutely no excuses. Didn't McKenzie prove that? Didn't Justify? How many lengths did Accelerate spot him by running wide the whole race? He couldn't have held on to two of them?

He looked as bad as he did in the DWC. Thunder Snow looked as good. He looked as bad as he did in the Pegasus given he was in the cat bird seat, the Lance Armstrong seat, regarding crosswinds the entire race, completely protected.. Collected took the worst of it, but Gun Runner was almost as bad. There is no way he should have been able to not only hold on, but to distance himself. WC finished as good as he did due to position, not talent.

Horse player's no nothing about crosswinds. Crosswinds are the most feared thing in cycling. No other horse had a chance after the field split and they lost the hind of the horse in front of them. Happens in the Veulta every year. I only saw two cyclists who did what Gun Runner did, Jan Ullrich and Eddy Merckx--distance themselves from the feild in crosswinds. It was certinly, based on difficulty, the greatest performance by any horse this century. WC was just that lucky wheel sucker. You show that race to any cyclist, even if they know nothing about horse racing, and they'll say the same thing.

You won't get great odds on WC, but more power to you. Maybe you can replicate the Arrogate/Collected exacta from last year's BCC or the WC/Collected exacta from the Pegasus with McKinzie/WC. Or the WC single in the DWC.

The best horse WC has ever beaten is Gunneverra. That might be a profitable exacta--they finished 1/2 in the Travers and the BCC and the Pegasus. Can we put an X in the DWC? Magic rail and impossibility to close and injury and all that?

[Redboard]

Here are the highest odds of the BCC betting favorite since 2005 and their order of finish.

2011- Flat Out 7/2 (5th)
2009 - Zenyatta 2.8 (1st)
2014 - Shared Belief 5/2 (4th)
2007 - Street Sense 5/2 (4th)

I would think that Accelerate would fall somewhere between these (7/2 - 5/2). There really is no one else worthy to go off lower than him.

[Tom]

And West Coast looked even worse despite coming in second, which he only re- inherited by default.

Given WC's supposed level of natural talent, even coming off of a long layoff, he should have won that race. Absolutely no excuses. Didn't McKenzie prove that? Didn't Justify? How many lengths did Accelerate spot him by running wide the whole race? He couldn't have held on to two of them?

Long layoff and that race was not the target.
THE BC is.

WC has races that Acc would Never be close in.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by papillon

By your logic, he should have won the DCDM last year by a football field instead of finishing up the track.

Sadler has had severe BC-itis for a long time now, regardless of whether the race is at SA or Del Mar or anwhere else. It isn't the competition, most of the horses he races against are the same ones he's raced against all year.

If he wins the BCC, Accelerate likely is the only truely naturally talented horse in the race, even if it turns out uglier than the AA.

Since the Masochistic rule, a lot of horses suddenly develope Octoberitis--they either take to their beds, their sheds, or they all of a sudden seem very ordinary, while those horses chronically finishing behind them suddenly seem very special.

YMMV and likely does.

I was speaking to Sadler shipping out of CA, not his lifetime stats in the BC. Not sure what "logic" you're referring to here.

[Tom]

Looking at the PPs for ACC and WC last night, this could shape up to be a really good race.

I'll start a Classic thread later today wehre wan start pick it apart.
First good feeling I've had about the BC so far.

[chiguy]

Despite my initial post on this thread, I would feel way better about the event if Enable decides to come. No Arc winner has won the BC Turf so this would add a nice level of intrigue to the day.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by chiguy

Despite my initial post on this thread, I would feel way better about the event if Enable decides to come. No Arc winner has won the BC Turf so this would add a nice level of intrigue to the day.

To clarify, no Arc winner has won the BC Turf in the same year (though only a fraction have tried).

Found won the '15 BC Turf and the '16 Arc.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If Justify trained the whole year and developed he would have drowned accelerate, just different levels of talent in my book. Will never know but Justify was a very very talented horse, I think the early retirement has maybe dimmed how good he was with so little racing under his belt.

Hard to believe there are still touts out there for Justify (a hot house hoss)
112 days of racings LOL.


He was fast. he was fragile. Thats his "career" in a nutshell


Never beat older.


Hell whos the best hoss he beat?


Good Magic? LOL another hot house hoss.


Bad crop of three year old colts in the US (and that's putting it kindly)


Allan

[cj]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Hard to believe there are still touts out there for Justify (a hot house hoss)
112 days of racings LOL.


He was fast. he was fragile. Thats his "career" in a nutshell


Never beat older.


Hell whos the best hoss he beat?


Good Magic? LOL another hot house hoss.


Bad crop of three year old colts in the US (and that's putting it kindly)


Allan

Honest question, outside of the shell of West Coast who has Accelerate beaten? Are any of them better than Good Magic? I'm not so sure.

Say what you will about Justify but he battle a very, very good sprinter on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, put him away, and still won pretty easily. That one is even more impressive performance in retrospect given what Promises Fulfilled has accomplished.

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

Honest question, outside of the shell of West Coast who has Accelerate beaten? Are any of them better than Good Magic? I'm not so sure.

Say what you will about Justify but he battle a very, very good sprinter on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, put him away, and still won pretty easily. That one is even more impressive performance in retrospect given what Promises Fulfilled has accomplished.

Complete list:

Shell of West Coast
Isotherm
Prime Attraction x4
The Lieutenant x3
Shades of Victory
Pavel x3
Roman Rosso
Dr. Dorr x2
Two Thirty Five
City of Light
Prince of Arabia
Full of Luck
Untrapped
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee
Malibu Max
Hawaakom
Colonelsdarktemper
Blueridge Traveler
Hedge Fund
Inside Straight
Mubtaahij x2
Fear the Cowboy
Giant Expectations
Top of the Game x2
Curlin Road
Irish Freedom
Ike Walker
Win the Space

Not exactly a Breeders' Cup preview list.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

Honest question, outside of the shell of West Coast who has Accelerate beaten? Are any of them better than Good Magic? I'm not so sure.

Say what you will about Justify but he battle a very, very good sprinter on the front end in the Kentucky Derby, put him away, and still won pretty easily. That one is even more impressive performance in retrospect given what Promises Fulfilled has accomplished.

Justify's Derby performance was one of, if not the best performance I've seen this year. His high speed figure doesn't even do him justice since the TFUS pace adjustment tends to underrate exceptional performances at 10 furlongs.

[Tom]

He beat Ike Walker???

WOW~!

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by cj

Complete list:

Shell of West Coast
Isotherm
Prime Attraction x4
The Lieutenant x3
Shades of Victory
Pavel x3
Roman Rosso
Dr. Dorr x2
Two Thirty Five
City of Light
Prince of Arabia
Full of Luck
Untrapped
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee
Malibu Max
Hawaakom
Colonelsdarktemper
Blueridge Traveler
Hedge Fund
Inside Straight
Mubtaahij x2
Fear the Cowboy
Giant Expectations
Top of the Game x2
Curlin Road
Irish Freedom
Ike Walker
Win the Space

Not exactly a Breeders' Cup preview list.

Best horse on the list is City of Light, who, of course beat him at Oaklawn.


other than that and shell of west Coast. yikes.


Allan