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Old 07-18-2017, 06:06 PM   #31
acorn54
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You are playing in the wrong poker games...IMO.
thaskalos i defer to your knowledge on poker rules. it has been a long time for me and i only played online holdem poker.
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Old 07-18-2017, 06:42 PM   #32
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........ It is VERY hard to cash in the main event, we are talking about surviving over several days of poker.
I have known several players who have taken a flyer on the main event who have a hard time achieving success in a home game. Many similar type players enter the main event every year. Luck can only take a weak player so far. A good players chance of cashing are actually better in the main event because of all of the no-hopers.
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:44 PM   #33
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alton is right on the money. very few arenas in gambling are as advantageous to the player as horseracing. in poker you have to ante up every hand to stay in the game. in horseracing you are free to participate only when you have a decided advantage. you are not required to bet every day or every race. the problem is the mindset of the average horseplayer. if they looked at their wagers as investments for their portfolio, they would grow their investments very nicely.
unfortunately most don't do that.
It is correct that if poker had no ante or blind bets that your Dog could play a small set of premium hands written on a cocktail napkin. This as with most easy to execute successful strategies would have the value sucked out of it toot-sweet. Horse racing as far as advantages is closer to the bottom of the list than the top. Wagering with bookmakers who pay is far and away the best proposition. If you break it down to Sports Betting,Gaming Machines, "live" and internet poker and pari-mutels. IMO earning 80-100k a year at the parimutel's is by far and away the most difficult task. I didn't include casino table games due to the lack of potential arenas.
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Old 07-18-2017, 08:18 PM   #34
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It is correct that if poker had no ante or blind bets that your Dog could play a small set of premium hands written on a cocktail napkin. This as with most easy to execute successful strategies would have the value sucked out of it toot-sweet. Horse racing as far as advantages is closer to the bottom of the list than the top. Wagering with bookmakers who pay is far and away the best proposition. If you break it down to Sports Betting,Gaming Machines, "live" and internet poker and pari-mutels. IMO earning 80-100k a year at the parimutel's is by far and away the most difficult task. I didn't include casino table games due to the lack of potential arenas.
i don't know about you showonly, but to earn 80-100 grand AT ANYTHING, is just a pipe dream for me. i don't have the constitution to handle that kind of money in ANY activity of chance.
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Old 07-18-2017, 08:58 PM   #35
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i don't know about you showonly, but to earn 80-100 grand AT ANYTHING, is just a pipe dream for me. i don't have the constitution to handle that kind of money in ANY activity of chance.

Risk tolerance is not something most Gamblers deal with in a reasonable way. Weaker gamblers justify too large a wager and winning gamblers excuse away there lack of temperament to absorb the undeniable truths of standard deviation. The explanations from both factions remain timeless. The use of the term activity of chance is one I think is a naive A true understanding of the "the great recession" and the massive world wide bailout(will not under any circumstance discuss if it was justified) that followed come with an understanding that millions of people were involved in a true "activity of chance" and didn't even now they had been dealt in. Risk is everywhere. Be truthful as to your own risk tolerance and deal with it as you choose.
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Old 07-19-2017, 01:04 PM   #36
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I have known several players who have taken a flyer on the main event who have a hard time achieving success in a home game. Many similar type players enter the main event every year. Luck can only take a weak player so far. A good players chance of cashing are actually better in the main event because of all of the no-hopers.
Something like 1 in 9 players cash. So a good player gets that up to 1 in 3. That's the odds I was giving Gutfreund.

Bear in mind that you can find almost nobody in the poker world with a long streak of main event cashes, despite the fact that 6,000 or more people play it every year.
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Old 07-19-2017, 01:05 PM   #37
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i don't know about you showonly, but to earn 80-100 grand AT ANYTHING, is just a pipe dream for me. i don't have the constitution to handle that kind of money in ANY activity of chance.
To earn $80,000 to $100,000 gambling, consistently (i.e., not through luck) requires even more work and dedication and discipline than earning the same amount working. Which is a great irony because a lot of people get into gambling to avoid work.
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Old 07-19-2017, 01:43 PM   #38
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To earn $80,000 to $100,000 gambling, consistently (i.e., not through luck) requires even more work and dedication and discipline than earning the same amount working. Which is a great irony because a lot of people get into gambling to avoid work.
Your the individual calling it work. As far as the money goes its satisfied the needs and wants of my family and myself. Not to mention I NEVER had to tell my wife or my children that I couldn't be with them or at an event with them because of a work obligation. That freedom was part of my compensation package.
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Old 07-19-2017, 01:47 PM   #39
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.....Bear in mind that you can find almost nobody in the poker world with a long streak of main event cashes, despite the fact that 6,000 or more people play it every year.
Why do you think this happens?
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Old 07-19-2017, 02:01 PM   #40
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Why do you think this happens?
Big field tournament variance is so high and there are so few tournaments with this size fields and buy-in that it's impossible to know whether anyone is really making a +EV play by playing in the main event.

And you can't make a profit on cashes alone, because even the best players bust out a lot. You have to get very deep, which takes a boatload of luck.
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Old 07-19-2017, 02:09 PM   #41
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To earn $80,000 to $100,000 gambling, consistently (i.e., not through luck) requires even more work and dedication and discipline than earning the same amount working. Which is a great irony because a lot of people get into gambling to avoid work.
Do they get into gambling to avoid "work"...or, to avoid a BOSS? "Work" is tolerable without a boss around...IMO.
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Old 07-19-2017, 02:25 PM   #42
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Big field tournament variance is so high and there are so few tournaments with this size fields and buy-in that it's impossible to know whether anyone is really making a +EV play by playing in the main event.

And you can't make a profit on cashes alone, because even the best players bust out a lot. You have to get very deep, which takes a boatload of luck.


Everything you said is very true. I would add the increased fees to enter the tournaments. The WSOP has been particularly grievous in its increases. They have also expanded THE depth of payouts. This makes the take more effective. The WSOP lists cashes by players going back to the 80's. It would be very interesting to see ROI's. If the Main Event has 5k entries what % chance of winning(for the sake of argument just winning) does the best player have. 1,2,3....% ???

Last edited by showonly; 07-19-2017 at 02:31 PM.
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Old 07-19-2017, 02:44 PM   #43
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Do they get into gambling to avoid "work"...or, to avoid a BOSS? "Work" is tolerable without a boss around...IMO.
amen to that
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Old 01-17-2019, 02:10 PM   #44
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David Gutfreund did not stay away for horse tournaments for long. Just won the NTRA Tour.
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Old 01-17-2019, 02:25 PM   #45
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this game is like a 'sparring partner'...



ain't no 'loyalty' to horseplaying...
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