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Old 04-21-2018, 11:23 AM   #1
Bullet Plane
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How Fast is a 106 Beyer?

Looking at this years Derby, I thought that the 107 BSF Justify got, and the 106 of Mendelssohn were very high for horses coming into the Derby.

I wanted to see if there were any others that ran that fast in a final prep, and how they fared in the big race. I went back ten years...

Had to go back to 2015 and found:

Materiality: 110 in the Florida derby, 102 in a stakes prior to that: Finished 6th.

Dortmund: 106 SA Derby, 104 in San F.: Finished 3 lengths back.

Upstart: 108 Fla Derby, 93 FOY,: finished last.

2014:

California Chrome: 107 SA derby, 108 San F: Won Derby with a 97.

2012:

Bodemeister: 108 Ark derby, 101 San F: 2nd in Derby beat by I'll Have Another who scored a 101 Beyer.

2008:

Big Brown 106 Florida Derby, 106 Alw. : Won Derby with 109 Beyer.

Last edited by Bullet Plane; 04-21-2018 at 11:29 AM. Reason: clarify
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:47 AM   #2
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Go back further.

Of note, I remember Bellamy Road got a 119 or 117 in the Wood. He still hasn't finished the Kentucky Derby. I believe it was Beyer's highest ever rating prior to the Derby.

My favorite Derby winner of all time in FunnyCide who I believe got a 113 in the Wood, and got 2nd behind Empire Makers 116 in that race. Empire was 5/2 chalk while Funny was let off at 13/1 odds.

War Emblem, I believe, got a 113 at Arlington Park in his race before the Derby and went off at 20/1 going gate to wire.

I believe Charasmatic had a 105 or so before going off at over 30/1 in the Derby next out.

Beyer ratings since about 2003 have gone so far down in value, they aren't even a consideration for me anymore.
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:59 AM   #3
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I remember when Lil E Tee won the '92 Derby at a huge price. I was doing the speed figures for Racing Action back then and I had Lil E Tee tied with another horse as the top figure of the year, based on his second in the Arkansas Derby, and Beyer also had him as high as any other horse. One of the Beyer associates wrote the analysis for DRF and didn't put Lil E Tee as a contender, even though he had the top Beyer (tied). I put Lil E Tee third and said that he was a live longshot, and I actually hit the exacta that year. Lil E Tee was 17-1 at the track but back then there were separate pools in many states and I believe that he paid 50-1 odds in New York. One of our readers (Racing Action) called me the next week and said that he was trying to figure out the Derby and he saw that my top figure horse was 50-1 at OTB and he bet $50 to win and $50 to place on him.

Last edited by pandy; 04-21-2018 at 12:00 PM.
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Old 04-21-2018, 12:36 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
I believe Charasmatic had a 105 or so before going off at over 30/1 in the Derby next out.

Beyer ratings since about 2003 have gone so far down in value, they aren't even a consideration for me anymore.
People obsess too much over Beyer numbers and other speed figures. Yes, we want to bet on fast horses and avoid the slow ones. But in the KD especially, how the hell are you going to accurately project speed with 3 year olds going 10f for the first time? And figs are contextual. Does it matter that Justify ran a 107? He's not running in that race again. After the Derby we're going to get the speed figs, and people may ooh and ahh over some horse or horses. Let's face it -- the same 20 horses could run again three weeks after the KD and the results would be different, maybe totally different.

The Charismatic Derby year...Based on his Beyer (maybe fastest in that field?) I put him underneath in the Ex and Tri but didn't have him on top. Why? Because freakin' Lukas put him in a 75,000 claimer and claimers don't win the Kentucky Derby! D'oh!

I'm still upset. lol
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Old 04-21-2018, 01:13 PM   #5
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Today's Beyers are much lower than they used to be.
a 106 today is like a 112 back in the day. (roughly)

I was looking at some stuff in Quinn's Handicapper's Condition book and hisguidleis for Grade 1 races were that they were won by Grade 1 horses and they should show at least one race of 115 of higher.

You won't be betting too many Gr1 races using that one!
My database shows that a Grade 1 for older males at one mile has a Beyer Par of 110.

To put that 106 in perspective, since 2013, the Beyer par for 3yos going 9 furlongs in Gr1 races is 100. Going 8.5 furlongs it is 97.
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Old 04-21-2018, 01:20 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
I remember when Lil E Tee won the '92 Derby at a huge price. I was doing the speed figures for Racing Action back then and I had Lil E Tee tied with another horse as the top figure of the year, based on his second in the Arkansas Derby, and Beyer also had him as high as any other horse.
That was the Arazi Derby and AP Indy scratched the day of the Derby, maybe the later's Santa Anita Derby had a higher figure.

Do you remember if you had a figure for Arazi in the Juvey the year before? I would guess it would've been pretty high. I think that was pre Beyer figures published in the Form, but not sure.

I played that Derby in Louisiana, picked Pine Bluff, and I think Arazi was 4-5 in their separate pool but Lil E Tee might have been lower there than CD odds, maybe 13-1, with Day up.
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Old 04-21-2018, 01:36 PM   #7
Tom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
I remember when Lil E Tee won the '92 Derby at a huge price. I was doing the speed figures for Racing Action back then and I had Lil E Tee tied with another horse as the top figure of the year, based on his second in the Arkansas Derby, and Beyer also had him as high as any other horse. One of the Beyer associates wrote the analysis for DRF and didn't put Lil E Tee as a contender, even though he had the top Beyer (tied). I put Lil E Tee third and said that he was a live longshot, and I actually hit the exacta that year. Lil E Tee was 17-1 at the track but back then there were separate pools in many states and I believe that he paid 50-1 odds in New York. One of our readers (Racing Action) called me the next week and said that he was trying to figure out the Derby and he saw that my top figure horse was 50-1 at OTB and he bet $50 to win and $50 to place on him.
I remember seeing that Beyer for LET, and then seeing your column. I's STILL buying beers off that race!
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Old 04-21-2018, 01:49 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Today's Beyers are much lower than they used to be.
a 106 today is like a 112 back in the day. (roughly)

I was looking at some stuff in Quinn's Handicapper's Condition book and hisguidleis for Grade 1 races were that they were won by Grade 1 horses and they should show at least one race of 115 of higher.

You won't be betting too many Gr1 races using that one!
My database shows that a Grade 1 for older males at one mile has a Beyer Par of 110.

To put that 106 in perspective, since 2013, the Beyer par for 3yos going 9 furlongs in Gr1 races is 100. Going 8.5 furlongs it is 97.
Yep. The first clue the Beyers may be useless is the fact that they have horses getting slower.... if they got that one so obviously wrong, how can they be trusted?
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:17 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Go back further.

Of note, I remember Bellamy Road got a 119 or 117 in the Wood. He still hasn't finished the Kentucky Derby. I believe it was Beyer's highest ever rating prior to the Derby.
LOL he finished 7th with a pretty darn tough trip.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:31 PM   #10
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LOL he finished 7th with a pretty darn tough trip.
7th is somehow the new world of winning? I thought I had numerous excuses for Summer Bird finishing 6th in the 2008 Derby, but 7th?

At least we can all pat him on the head with his 2nd in the Travers.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:39 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Today's Beyers are much lower than they used to be.
a 106 today is like a 112 back in the day. (roughly)

I was looking at some stuff in Quinn's Handicapper's Condition book and hisguidleis for Grade 1 races were that they were won by Grade 1 horses and they should show at least one race of 115 of higher.

You won't be betting too many Gr1 races using that one!
My database shows that a Grade 1 for older males at one mile has a Beyer Par of 110.

To put that 106 in perspective, since 2013, the Beyer par for 3yos going 9 furlongs in Gr1 races is 100. Going 8.5 furlongs it is 97.
I agree with this, horses have not gotten slower as Beyer figures suggest.

Even the 107 for Justify is a bit disputable as it makes the entire SA Oaks field go backwards off their last (unheard of really for developing fillies).

I would put the number from 15 years ago at 5 points giver or take.
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Old 04-21-2018, 04:15 PM   #12
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I'm going with Justify getting a 110.
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Last edited by Tom; 04-21-2018 at 04:17 PM.
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:00 PM   #13
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7th is somehow the new world of winning? I thought I had numerous excuses for Summer Bird finishing 6th in the 2008 Derby, but 7th?

At least we can all pat him on the head with his 2nd in the Travers.
That is a far cry from has he finished yet.
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:11 PM   #14
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That is a far cry from has he finished yet.


Bellamy Road actually led a bit in the KD......finished 7th by 6 3/4


Point Given in 2001 got as close as 2nd by 1 1/2, then faded & finished 5th by 11 1/2
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Old 04-22-2018, 01:26 AM   #15
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