last time odds

[Stick]

I have noticed lately many horses winning at various tracks that are either dropping or have low odds in their previous race. I believe one track I looked at last week had every winner at 5-1 or lower in its last start. I was wondering how the last race odds of a horse enter into the handicapping process for different cappers. Maybe some can share their thoughts on how important this is to them.

[Dave Schwartz]

Because of the ambiguity of the class level of the last race, this factor runs hot and cold, but at the end of the day it is somewhat predictive, but has no real economic value.

I believe I pulled it out of our software about 10-12 years ago, but I can check if you want stats for it.

BTW, as I recall it was predictive in maiden races because most horses are coming back from a similar class race.

[Poindexter]

I of course pay attention to it. But in terms of capping harness I am all about how the horse raced. A horse who went off at 2-1, sat a hole trip and finished 4th by 3 with clear sailing, takes a back seat to a horse in the same race who went off at 25-1, came a strong 1st over into a fast 3rd quarter stayed strong until say midstretch and finised 5th by 3 1/4. Harness horses go good and bad really quick, so when a harness horse wakes up with a big performance at long odds, I am expect them to race well again. When they race poorly, I expect them to race poorly again, but of course sometimes they fool me.

I do give odds in the last race a big look when the horse is lightly raced or the horse was coming off of a layoff in that start. A horse who was well backed in these situtations, I can see improving next start.

Also, I think it may be more meaningful in situations where the horse has a legit excuse. If he was 2-1, but was sitting last at the half in a race with fractions of
28.2 57.4 125.1 152.3, he had no chance, so the fact he was well bet is a good sign.

[Stick]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Because of the ambiguity of the class level of the last race, this factor runs hot and cold, but at the end of the day it is somewhat predictive, but has no real economic value.

I believe I pulled it out of our software about 10-12 years ago, but I can check if you want stats for it.

BTW, as I recall it was predictive in maiden races because most horses are coming back from a similar class race.

I agree Dave. The class of the last race can really cloud the value of the odds. Don't have any stats to back it up but it seems horses that won are much less likely to repeat if their last race odds were high.