Why is Bolt d'Oro the measuring stick? I don't get it

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Even Restoring Hope, Bafferts like 5th string finished ok in the wood.

Reportedly worked like a freight train this weekend at Santa Anita.

Should be in line to follow in West Coast's footsteps from last year if he does well in the Pat Day Mile. Mississippi looks to rebound as well.

Robert Lewis winner Lombo ships in from CA, but I don't think he can get beat worse than he did in the San Felipe, so Bolt D'Oro's rep is probably still safe regardless of the outcome.

[rabrown36]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Im so tired hearing about Good Magic's BC Juvenile, there is no question if they flip flop trips Bolt puts about 10 lengths or more on Good Magic. Its simple math look at the trakus data.

Good Magic is Carpe Diem. If Good Magic hits the board ill be shocked and humbled but I just dont see it. Hes not very fast. period. Hes a high 90s beyer horse. The pedigree is great, the trainer is fantastic, but the horse is the most over rated horse in a long time. Slow times, slow speed figures, slow final fractions, slow, slow, slow...

Stop making excuses for Bolt in the Breeders Cup. Every race at every track, everyday horses are wide, lose ground and have to run farther. Every horse cannot be on the rail and go the short way around. Good horses overcome wide trips, great horses can make their own trip. You really love beyers. The slow horse Good Magic, was also a slow two-year-old, who came west and beat the " fast horse". I guess those numbers don't mean as much as you think.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If all you can do to refute the notion that Bolt D'Oro is one of the more (if not the most) accomplished horses in the Derby is...

Dude, I make no such notion. You're inventing stuff like CNN. I merely chimed in that the examples provided were not terribly supportive of the refutation, Instilled Regard being the most glaring example. He popped a 100 Brisnet figure at Los Al then hits FG and settles in the mid 90s before going back to SA, getting his ass kicked, and pulling a 102 in the process.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Dude, I make no such notion. You're inventing stuff like CNN. I merely chimed in that the examples provided were not terribly supportive of the refutation, Instilled Regard being the most glaring example. He popped a 100 Brisnet figure at Los Al then hits FG and settles in the mid 90s before going back to SA, getting his ass kicked, and pulling a 102 in the process.

Sorry, I thought I was responding to the original poster. That's where the last bit was coming from and should not have been directed at you. As you said, you were not making any claims to Bolt D'Oro's relative strength one way or another.

To clarify I was refuting the claim from the OP that the CA horses were leaving the state and getting beat. In fact, they were leaving the state and winning as the list clearly showed.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by rabrown36

Stop making excuses for Bolt in the Breeders Cup. Every race at every track, everyday horses are wide, lose ground and have to run farther. Every horse cannot be on the rail and go the short way around. Good horses overcome wide trips, great horses can make their own trip. You really love beyers. The slow horse Good Magic, was also a slow two-year-old, who came west and beat the " fast horse". I guess those numbers don't mean as much as you think.

trakus data... look into it

[CincyHorseplayer]

This thread really makes this a horse race!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here's an article by Jerardi about a horse I had forgotten about. But may be the best comparison for Justify except Pulpit had more of a foundation racing in 3 derby preps.

http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-just...-beyer-company

[rabrown36]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

trakus data... look into it

Know all about it. As I said horses lose ground every race. Ok, so you know a horse lost ground. What does it mean? Does it mean they won't lose ground the next time? It's nice information to have but to think that Horse B will win next time he runs against Horse A if he saves more ground is not that simple.

In the Blue grass. Free Drop Billy ran further than Good Magic, plus was bothered in the stretch. He has an inside post in the Derby, so he should be able to save ground. According to your theory on trackus, ground loss etc.. He is a much better play than Good Magic.


This Segment Race Cumulative
Time Distance Off Rail Avg Lengths Time Peak Distance Delta Avg
(s) Run (ft) (ft) (mph) Ahead (s) (mph) (ft) (ft) (mph)

Good Magic
13.28 665 6.0 34.1 (1 3/4) 1:50.41 39.2 6053 --- 37.4

Flameaway
13.36 664 4.5 33.9 1 3/4 1:50.70 40.1 5998 -55 36.9

Sporting Chance
13.51 666 30.2 33.6 3P4:3 1/2 1:51.03 40.2 5999 -54 36.8

Free Drop Billy
13.34 665 34.5 34.0 4P3:4 1:51.13 39.7 6065 12 37.2

Blended Citizen
12.90 664 24.9 35.1 4 3/4 1:51.27 39.6 6021 -32 36.9

Kanthaka
13.37 665 15.2 33.9 7 1/4 1:51.73 39.7 6040 -13 36.9

Tiz Mischief
13.22 664 4.9 34.2 8 1/4 1:51.88 39.8 6025 -28 36.7

Marconi
13.36 664 9.7 33.9 8 3/4 1:51.93 40.2 6014 -39 36.6

Zing Zang
13.11 665 17.7 34.6 9 3/4 1:52.13 39.1 6000 -53 36.5

California Night
14.64 666 15.2 31.0 16 1/2 1:53.46 40.4 5999 -54 36.0

Gotta Go
13.83 665 9.2 32.8 17 1/4 1:53.58 39.8 6050 -3 36.3

Machismo
14.31 665 18.4 31.7 20 1:54.07 40.2 6083 30 36.4

Determinant
14.02 664 10.1 32.3 20 3/4 1:54.22 40.6 6075 22 36.3

Arawak
15.01 666 10.6 30.3 27 1/2 1:55.55 41.2 6037 -16 35.6
Race Notes: #2 DQ'd from Show to Fourth

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Here's an article by Jerardi about a horse I had forgotten about. But may be the best comparison for Justify except Pulpit had more of a foundation racing in 3 derby preps.

http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-just...-beyer-company

I think a better comparison for Justify is another Baffert-trained horse, Congaree.

He ran once at two, but it was in September and he was quickly sidelined until the following February, so for all intents and purposes he was starting over at 3.

He won a maiden special going a flat mile on Feb. 28, then romped in a first condition allowance at 8.5f on March 17. He shipped to Aqueduct and beat top Derby prospect (and eventual winner) Monarchos in the Wood Memorial on April 14. So he had a very similar campaign in a similar time frame as Justify as well as displaying a similar running style. He also only faced 15 horses total in those races.

His Beyers for the 3 races were 100, 102, and 108 respectively.

Congaree was part of the ridiculous pace in that year's Derby, and was the only one to survive somewhat unscathed, emerging with a clear lead in the stretch only to be engulfed by Monarchos and tagged at the wire for the runner-up spot by Invisible Ink.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by rabrown36

Know all about it. As I said horses lose ground every race. Ok, so you know a horse lost ground. What does it mean? Does it mean they won't lose ground the next time? It's nice information to have but to think that Horse B will win next time he runs against Horse A if he saves more ground is not that simple.

In the Blue grass. Free Drop Billy ran further than Good Magic, plus was bothered in the stretch. He has an inside post in the Derby, so he should be able to save ground. According to your theory on trackus, ground loss etc.. He is a much better play than Good Magic.


This Segment Race Cumulative
Time Distance Off Rail Avg Lengths Time Peak Distance Delta Avg
(s) Run (ft) (ft) (mph) Ahead (s) (mph) (ft) (ft) (mph)

Good Magic
13.28 665 6.0 34.1 (1 3/4) 1:50.41 39.2 6053 --- 37.4

Flameaway
13.36 664 4.5 33.9 1 3/4 1:50.70 40.1 5998 -55 36.9

Sporting Chance
13.51 666 30.2 33.6 3P4:3 1/2 1:51.03 40.2 5999 -54 36.8

Free Drop Billy
13.34 665 34.5 34.0 4P3:4 1:51.13 39.7 6065 12 37.2

Blended Citizen
12.90 664 24.9 35.1 4 3/4 1:51.27 39.6 6021 -32 36.9

Kanthaka
13.37 665 15.2 33.9 7 1/4 1:51.73 39.7 6040 -13 36.9

Tiz Mischief
13.22 664 4.9 34.2 8 1/4 1:51.88 39.8 6025 -28 36.7

Marconi
13.36 664 9.7 33.9 8 3/4 1:51.93 40.2 6014 -39 36.6

Zing Zang
13.11 665 17.7 34.6 9 3/4 1:52.13 39.1 6000 -53 36.5

California Night
14.64 666 15.2 31.0 16 1/2 1:53.46 40.4 5999 -54 36.0

Gotta Go
13.83 665 9.2 32.8 17 1/4 1:53.58 39.8 6050 -3 36.3

Machismo
14.31 665 18.4 31.7 20 1:54.07 40.2 6083 30 36.4

Determinant
14.02 664 10.1 32.3 20 3/4 1:54.22 40.6 6075 22 36.3

Arawak
15.01 666 10.6 30.3 27 1/2 1:55.55 41.2 6037 -16 35.6
Race Notes: #2 DQ'd from Show to Fourth

i think thats a further indictment of Good Magic. Free Drop Billy is not a very fast horse. Although if he gets a good ground saving trip and his pedigree comes to fruition could clunk into the super. It isnt like Bolt is prone to bad trips plus i like his post better than Good Magic. Now add Espinoza riding him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Justify for sure is one of the biggest if not the biggest hype job the KY derby has ever seen. Without the Baffert led PR machine and these pumped up phony speed figures than Justify would not even be in the top 10 of the betting action if people just went off the merits of the horse .

The evidence ...

You can try all you want to legitimize his SA derby speed figure but once you take the lip stick off the pig the stone cold facts are he ran one of the slowest SA derby’s against what probably was the weakest and smallest SA derby in history and he gets rewarded with the highest speed figures of any horse this year when you got horses like Mendelssohn, Audible and Magnum Moon crushing much more difficult fields in their final preps and in the case of Mendelssohn obliterating the track record.

In Justify workouts it’s never about the final time it’s always ignore the one tangible thing like time and instead just let your imagination take over and fantasize in your head a out how much his stride and coat color remind you of secretariat.

He has had zero races that have done anything to prepare him for the bumper car environment of the derby. He’s raced in mostly hand picked fields of also rans and always had these scripted trips. He has raced in fields of 5 horses twice and a seven horse field once. I would say his first two races ecspecially were paid workouts but honestly the 4 horses he raced against in both races were not even the quality of workout horses that the other top contenders use. His first two races can accurately be called media exhibitions not races.

The gut reaction from the three highly acclaimed analysts that worked the SA derby was wondering if Baffert would even run Justify in the derby at all after his lackluster “victory” yet what everyone saw as lackluster the guys who make the numbers decide to reward Justify with the highest beyer of the year lol ???

And the way Bolt just obviously laid down for Justify. Just handing him the win. Not even attempting to make a race of it until it was way too late. Castellano said on the record he got the orders to let Justify have a easy uncontested lead straight from the trainer of Bolt Mick Ruis. Yeah that Mick Ruis .... Mr. Integrety right there. Bolt played the role perfectly of being entered in the SA derby to keep it from being a complete joke yet not doing anything that would keep Justify from getting the points he needed to make the derby.

I am guessing there are some deep pockets out there with a big smile on their face about Justify being the heavy favorite ecspecially with exchange wagering where you don’t even need to pick the winner. If you got enough cash you can just bet against Justify to win and since he is such a big favorite you can still make a killing just doing that with basically no risk because the reality is Justify is in way over his head against several more accomplished horses.

YouTube

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Im so tired hearing about Good Magic's BC Juvenile, there is no question if they flip flop trips Bolt puts about 10 lengths or more on Good Magic. Its simple math look at the trakus data.

Good Magic is Carpe Diem. If Good Magic hits the board ill be shocked and humbled but I just dont see it. Hes not very fast. period. Hes a high 90s beyer horse...

you were saying?

[GMB@BP]

Bolt was the one horse people were saying that he was not training all that well, which is a major red flag to me.

Good Magic is handled by an expert, he would not have been in the race had he not been doing well.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Bolt was the one horse people were saying that he was not training all that well, which is a major red flag to me.

The ride on Bolt D'Oro was one for the ages. How would a horse who already demonstrated the inability to run with Justify early in a relatively slower pace, be able to hang with him during that ridiculous first half mile and still be able to finish?

The only weapon Bolt's camp had going in was the knowledge that Justify was going to have to work harder early than he did in the Santa Anita Derby and thus might be vulnerable in the last 1/4 mile.

Instead of taking advantage of that by settling early and trying to make a run, they chose to be one of the sacrificial lambs that made Justify work harder early. Completely clueless.

Horses have rebounded in the Preakness off horrendous defeats (Snow Chief, Louis Quatorze) but this horse may have busted a gut with that travesty of a ride.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The ride on Bolt D'Oro was one for the ages. How would a horse who already demonstrated the inability to run with Justify early in a relatively slower pace, be able to hang with him during that ridiculous first half mile and still be able to finish?

The only weapon Bolt's camp had going in was the knowledge that Justify was going to have to work harder early than he did in the Santa Anita Derby and thus might be vulnerable in the last 1/4 mile.

Instead of taking advantage of that by settling early and trying to make a run, they chose to be one of the sacrificial lambs that made Justify work harder early. Completely clueless.

Horses have rebounded in the Preakness off horrendous defeats (Snow Chief, Louis Quatorze) but this horse may have busted a gut with that travesty of a ride.

Didnt they kinda show their plan by using Victor?

And then before the race Victor made it sound to me like he was going to try and go a bit, maybe thats just hind sight after the race.

I was surprised he did not settle him as well and what were those new silks, I kept wondering how that horse was pushing the pace.