Bill Cullen's Derby analysis and picks

[Bill Cullen]

Bill Cullen's Derby analysis and picks

Toss California Chrome: in his tenth race he had a life time high Beyer last out, three ascending Beyers, will contend with a very fast pace AND the brisnet race class of his last two races was 116 and 115 respectively.

I like Wicked Strong who wasn't too far off at every call with a very fast pace in the Wood and beat a field with a class rating of 117.

I also like Danza who was close up at every call in the Ark Derby and beat a field with a class rating of 118.

If I had to pick a third horse to come off the pace that has tactical speed, I'd go with Ride On Curlin.

Two front runners who I expect to improve in the Derby are Bayern and Social Inclusion.

Bill C

[SecretAgentMan]

Bayern nor Social Inclusion are running in the derby........Wicked Strong won't hit the board, then again, its just my opinion.

Also, only 1 of Pletchers last 17 runners that won their last prep race entering the derby has been in the superfecta.

Also, Chrome didn't receive a life time high beyer in his last outing......he received a 108 in the San Felipe & a 107 in the Santa Anita derby.

[Bill Cullen]

You're right about California Chrome's last Beyer: I use the Brisnet speed ratings but still call them "Beyers" by force of habit.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Bayern nor Social Inclusion are running in the derby........Wicked Strong won't hit the board, then again, its just my opinion.

Also, only 1 of Pletchers last 17 runners that won their last prep race entering the derby has been in the superfecta.

Also, Chrome didn't receive a life time high beyer in his last outing......he received a 108 in the San Felipe & a 107 in the Santa Anita derby.

My problem is not his figs....it's who he got them against. That San Felipe was some inferior horses and I don't know how much better that so called "Derby" was. My friend went to the derby forum at the racing hall of fame here Saturday. He spent 2 hours listening to the "expert panel" and all 3 of them went with California Chrome. I would of laughed out loud. One guy even admitted the horse has really not beaten good fields.....but he likes him anyway?? As chalk in the derby? I swear some of these folks can stop a freight train, going downhill, on ice. I went the two previous years, a majority liked Verrazano and Union Rags. Its looking like a bandwagon, pipe dream, too easy, too good to be true. Over on Facebook there's some fools yelling triple crown and posting pics of the derby trophy. Probably why I like this forum best......many of us have been doing this long enough to know what this means............... Not saying its can't be done but I know it won't be with my dime. He will be on my pick ticket and underneath in some exactas. That's not where I'll be looking to score though. Good luck and all, racing needs a triple crown but I don't see it in this horse and the price plus circumstances tells me to bet against.........sorry.

[_______]

Originally Posted by burnsy

My problem is not his figs....it's who he got them against. That San Felipe was some inferior horses and I don't know how much better that so called "Derby" was. My friend went to the derby forum at the racing hall of fame here Saturday. He spent 2 hours listening to the "expert panel" and all 3 of them went with California Chrome. I would of laughed out loud. One guy even admitted the horse has really not beaten good fields.....but he likes him anyway?? As chalk in the derby? I swear some of these folks can stop a freight train, going downhill, on ice. I went the two previous years, a majority liked Verrazano and Union Rags. Its looking like a bandwagon, pipe dream, too easy, too good to be true. Over on Facebook there's some fools yelling triple crown and posting pics of the derby trophy. Probably why I like this forum best......many of us have been doing this long enough to know what this means............... Not saying its can't be done but I know it won't be with my dime. He will be on my pick ticket and underneath in some exactas. That's not where I'll be looking to score though. Good luck and all, racing needs a triple crown but I don't see it in this horse and the price plus circumstances tells me to bet against.........sorry.

Theoretically, aren't Beyers and BRIS supposed to offer handicappers a tool to compare races run on different tracks? If that's the case, what would it matter who California Chrome ran against in obtaining his figures?

I can understand if you saw a favorable pace scenario that isn't likely to be duplicated and dismissed the horse because of that. But that's not what you said.

I agree that betting a short priced favorite in a large field is a good way to go broke in the long run.

But I think you need to make a case for him regressing off his form or another horse making a significant step forward. Dismissing his chances because he ran great figures against supposedly inferior horses would be like saying Cindy Crawford is less pretty if she competes in a beauty contest at a leper colony.

[ArlJim78]

If CC had been all out to win those recent victories by small margins, then I can see the concern regarding "who did he beat?". I guess what I'm saying is that even if the fields were weaker than some of the others, the point is he won them like he should, by making his opponents look completely inferior.

At the same time I have my doubts that there are others who have been beating much stronger fields, they all appear rather weak to me, with the possible exception of Gulfstream which I thought had some tougher racing this year. The Wood was probably the most competitive field, but I just don't see any of those horses stepping up to win the derby.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If CC had been all out to win those recent victories by small margins, then I can see the concern regarding "who did he beat?". I guess what I'm saying is that even if the fields were weaker than some of the others, the point is he won them like he should, by making his opponents look completely inferior.

At the same time I have my doubts that there are others who have been beating much stronger fields, they all appear rather weak to me, with the possible exception of Gulfstream which I thought had some tougher racing this year. The Wood was probably the most competitive field, but I just don't see any of those horses stepping up to win the derby.

Saamraat is a gutty horse that could run them down in the stretch down the stretch.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by fmolf

Saamraat is a gutty horse that could run them down in the stretch down the stretch.

I like Samraat, I'll have him on some tickets. He has some fight in him.
Curious though how do you see him running them down in the derby when he himself was run down in the Wood?

[clocker7]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If CC had been all out to win those recent victories by small margins, then I can see the concern regarding "who did he beat?". I guess what I'm saying is that even if the fields were weaker than some of the others, the point is he won them like he should, by making his opponents look completely inferior.

What I take away from CC's victories:
1. Not a one-hit wonder.
2. Manhandled Hoppertunity.
3. Pressed the leader for most of the SA Derby, eschewing taking the easier stalking role, and doing so with aplomb. Underappreciated.
4. With his experience, isn't intimidated by running in crowds. On Saturday, over half of the field will have bulging eyes, while he seems to enjoy the hubbub. A real pro.

[rastajenk]

I caught a little bit of his owners on the Santa Anita telecast, and they seem like deserving types, too. A Chrome win would be a good thing going forward.

[rcknhrse]

tell that to silver charm whose speed figure climbed every race leading up to derby the the derby and preakness ,he finally got beat just barely in the belmont