HONG KONG – SHA TIN - SUN – 1/28/24

[Nitro]

HONG KONG – SHA TIN - SUN – 1/28/24
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin all to be run on Turf:
(Class-top to bottom)-(1)-Class-1, (3)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting options:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Recommend waiting until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Selections to follow:

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[CheckMark]

Good luck with your picks, Nitro! I'll give it a go tonight. Try My luck!
TOP 2 PICKS

R1: SPECIAL HEDGE 9/2 WONDER YEARS 11-1

R2: STARSHIP EIGHTY 9/2 STAR OF GLORY 16-1

R3: SECOND TO NONE 5/2 MUST GO 10-1 #2 *BEST BET*

R4: PERFETTO 15/2 CELTIC TIMES 7/2

R5: DRAGON PRIDE 25-1 UP AND UP 98-1 wide open-BOMBS!

R6: PATCH OF THETA 7/2 MULTISUPER 17/2

R7: ENTERPRISE ATTACK 11-1 GORGEOUS WIN 1-1

R8: PACKING TREADMILL 56-1 LUCKY SWEYNESSE 3/5

R9: SWEET ENCOUNTER 5-1 GOLDEN ARTIE 15/2

R10: FUN TOGETHER 13-1 AMAZING DUCK 21-1

[Nitro]

Preliminary Selections:

R#1- 2000M C4 (10F)T………10-2-3 W/ 7-8…….…12:00 AM

R#2- 1600M C5 (8F)……..…8-7-1 W/ 10-2-6…....12:30 AM

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T….……2-4-10 W/ 6-12-1……1:00 AM

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T……….5-3-1 W/ 6-11-14……1:30 AM

R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T……...2-12-3 W/ 5-4-13 …..2:00 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T……….6-7-13 W/ 2-1-5……...2:35 AM

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T……….9-4-12 W/ 1-5-14……..3:05 AM

R#8- 1200M C1 (6F)T…….….1-2-5 W/ 6-8-10…......3:40 AM

R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T………...11-1-7 W/ 3-5-8 …..4:15 AM

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T………..8-2-3 W/ 7-10-6 …..4:50 AM

[Nitro]

Hey there CheckMark!
Thanks for joining in.

GL this morning!

[Muddy]

#9/2,5,6,8,14

[Muddy]

Originally Posted by Muddy

#9/2,5,6,8,14

The under horses 14,2,5

[Muddy]

2/,9,6,4,10,12.

Long shot #9

[Muddy]

1-10-2-9

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Preliminary Selections:

R#1- 2000M C4 (10F)T………10-2-3 W/ 7-8…….…12:00 AM

R#2- 1600M C5 (8F)……..…8-7-1 W/ 10-2-6…....12:30 AM

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T….……2-4-10 W/ 6-12-1……1:00 AM

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T……….5-3-1 W/ 6-11-14……1:30 AM

R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T……...2-12-3 W/ 5-4-13 …..2:00 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T……….6-7-13 W/ 2-1-5……...2:35 AM

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T……….9-4-12 W/ 1-5-14……..3:05 AM

R#8- 1200M C1 (6F)T…….….1-2-5 W/ 6-8-10…......3:40 AM

R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T………...11-1-7 W/ 3-5-8 …..4:15 AM

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T………..8-2-3 W/ 7-10-6 …..4:50 AM

RESULTS:

R#1- 2-9-4-3–Win

R#2- 14-2-5-10– Out.

R#3- 1-10-2-9– Win & Quin & Tri.-(late action sub) -16 to 4.8/1

R#4- 10-11-2-4– Out

R#5- 5-12-10-2– Win & Quin. (#3 Late Scr)

R#6- 13-7-2-11– Win & Quin & Tri

R#7- 9-11-5-13– Win

R#8- 6-5-2-13– Quin & Tri (37/1-19/1 & 6/1 Kaboom.! )

R#9- 1-11-13-3– Win & Quin

R#10- 8-11-10-3– Win (#11 @ 135/1 fin 2nd)
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[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Good luck with your picks, Nitro! I'll give it a go tonight. Try My luck!
TOP 2 PICKS

R1: SPECIAL HEDGE 9/2 WONDER YEARS 11-1

R2: STARSHIP EIGHTY 9/2 STAR OF GLORY 16-1

R3: SECOND TO NONE 5/2 MUST GO 10-1 #2 *BEST BET*

R4: PERFETTO 15/2 CELTIC TIMES 7/2

R5: DRAGON PRIDE 25-1 UP AND UP 98-1 wide open-BOMBS!

R6: PATCH OF THETA 7/2 MULTISUPER 17/2

R7: ENTERPRISE ATTACK 11-1 GORGEOUS WIN 1-1

R8: PACKING TREADMILL 56-1 LUCKY SWEYNESSE 3/5

R9: SWEET ENCOUNTER 5-1 GOLDEN ARTIE 15/2

R10: FUN TOGETHER 13-1 AMAZING DUCK 21-1

Prices are in HK dollars

R1: 6th 4th
R2: 7th 6th
R3: 3rd 13th lost on best bet
R4: 9th 8th
R5: 5th 12th
R6: 2nd @7.4-1 10th
R7: 5th 1st $14.00
R8: 9th 6th
R9: 1st $47.00 4th
R10: 9th 7th

Overall

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Prices are in HK dollars

R1: 6th 4th
R2: 7th 6th
R3: 3rd 13th lost on best bet
R4: 9th 8th
R5: 5th 12th
R6: 2nd @7.4-1 10th
R7: 5th 1st $14.00
R8: 9th 6th
R9: 1st $47.00 4th
R10: 9th 7th

Overall

Nice try CheckMark!
Just divide by 5 to get US $.

To be successful at Hong Kong you've got to take both the early betting and live late betting very seriously. Usually by 4 minutes to post you can make good final comparisons on the various betting patterns. Believe it or not having 12 to 14 entries in each race more often than not offers a clearer segregation to determne those entries of interest.
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