Workout Talk

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Just my take on Derby works - A horse working well usually just means they are in form and may bring their A-game to the race but that does not mean their A-game is good enough to beat the others entered. If a few of the top horses are not working well I will down grade them slightly but never move up a horse with poor figures who doesn't appear up to the competition just because they are "working well". There are also horses who just don't work well but come race day are ready. If you are going to base your wagers on works, you need to know the horses habits as well as the trainers.

Agreed. By this time, a horse should be tuned up and ready to go.
Horses either love or hate the surface at CD, so the comments by the connections after a work can be just as important as the final times.

[glengarry]

For those who coached college basketball, you know that you want to see a good week of practice before any game, especially a big game. You don't want to see your team making mistakes and playing all out of sorts. For horse racing, it's no different. The Derby is the ultimate test. It is unlike any other challenge these horses, and trainers and jocks, will ever face. You want everything to go right after the last prep. No hiccups. Trainers assess how things are going by how their horse looks, acts, eats, and, most important, works. Especially for this race.

I won't bet a horse that works poorly for the Kentucky Derby, or even so-so. Not saying those horses never win. I would just rather play the percentages. Horses off mediocre works have hit the board enough to make the exotics a tough call. But overall, I want a horse who is doing well for the weeks leading into this race. A number of them are doing well this year. There are no particular standouts. The hardest decision I will make will be on CC. Doing great when relaxing at home may not translate when thrust into new surroundings. Plus, he will be the biggest Derby favorite since BB. Very tough call. Any one out there willing to make the call?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by glengarry

I won't bet a horse that works poorly for the Kentucky Derby, or even so-so. Not saying those horses never win. I would just rather play the percentages. Horses off mediocre works have hit the board enough to make the exotics a tough call. But overall, I want a horse who is doing well for the weeks leading into this race. A number of them are doing well this year. There are no particular standouts. The hardest decision I will make will be on CC. Doing great when relaxing at home may not translate when thrust into new surroundings. Plus, he will be the biggest Derby favorite since BB. Very tough call. Any one out there willing to make the call?

My list of the probable Derby winner (Earnings order)

1. Vicar's in Trouble
2. Dance with Fate
3. Wicked Strong
4. Samraat
5. Wildcat Red
6. Ride on Curlin
7. Tapiture
8. General a Rod

Post position draw will determine my final plays......

[SecretAgentMan]

General A Rod has been sold to the owner of Intense Holiday but Mike Maker will still train him

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

General A Rod has been sold to the owner of Intense Holiday but Mike Maker will still train him

And there's my exacta!

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

And there's my exacta!

If that's your exacta.....play it ICE COLD.....$$

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

And there's my exacta!

That could pay as much as $700 or more

[BlueChip@DRF]

Sure, why not! Can't be the dumbest play. A few years ago another coworker of mine backed off on betting $10 on the #8 because that was the day and month of his daughter's birthday. What deterred him was the 50-1 odds. We all know how THAT turned out.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I think derby week works are overblown. We bet on races everyday where horses could have had slow works or works where they had to be pushed to finish and we probably never pay attention.

All horses and trainers are different, lots of trainers actually want to see slow works right now, let the horse relax or not spend too much energy.

I just think the microscope on derby works causes a lot if overthinking. The highs and lows of the works happen every day, just not nearly as many people watching as there is during derby time

I agree, and would add that it's more important to look at missed works or no works as a bigger negative in comparison to slow times.

[rcknhrse]

the most important part of a work is the final 1/4 time and this is often hard to find.the trainers know this but the reportors are to ignorant to inform the public.
in 2011 a reporter for hrtv was discussing animal kingdoms wrk with carl nafzgar and he tol her tht it wasnt the 113 that was impresive but the final 1/4 in 23 flat