Fountain Of Youth

[RXB]

Discreet Dancer beat absolutely nothing in his first two races. Plus his pedigree screams sprinter-miler.

Union Rags was a good 2YO but nothing special and is another whose pedigree doesn't really bode too well beyond a mile.

Algorithms looks like the horse to beat. I think he should be fine up to 9f (the 10th furlong in the Ky Derby, I have my doubts). He'll almost certainly be favoured.

Pass.

[redshift1]

My picks in order of preference:

1. Algorithms .... recent 105 win on track

2. Discreet Dancer ...recent 96 win on track

3. Union Rags


Things may change in the Florida Derby but right now whether or not Union Rags makes the transition between 2 and 3 makes him a chancy wager at 2-1.

Hansen and Creative Cause are 0 for 2 in 2012, not a good sign for UR.

Algorithms catches Discreet Dancer in the stretch with UR hanging on for third.

.

[IrishRail76]

Casual Trick is in my top four. I usually play across-the-board in these early big prep races, then put them in Exactas for the less "big-time" preps, like the Arkansas Derby. Many of us had the Exacta in that one last year, and if I recall correctly, it was sweet. Nakatani and Zito would excite me more in NY, but this early, to hit the board in Hallandale would not be out of the question. The season is very young, but soon the usual suspects will begin to build their bankrolls.

[Casino]

Algorithms scratch from the FOY.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Casino

Algorithms scratch from the FOY.

The scratch takes away from the interest in the race, but it's probably not a bad thing that Union Rags gets a softer spot for his comeback off the layoff.

[Ocala Mike]

Looking for the to outrun his odds, maybe in the exacta under the or . Like his running style, although maybe better suited to later on down the TC trail.


Ocala Mike

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The scratch takes away from the interest in the race, but it's probably not a bad thing that Union Rags gets a softer spot for his comeback off the layoff.

Nothing soft about running down DD while several solid horses make up the field.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by RXB

Discreet Dancer beat absolutely nothing in his first two races. Plus his pedigree screams sprinter-miler.

Agree.

This year it's only an extra 1/16th of a mile.

DD has been asked to do something new both starts, and both starts he delivered.

He really rated well in the stretch out to 1 mile. Completely relaxed. He is listed as having John Velasquez up today. - This will help his style here as will the slight stretch out. I think we will see the typical ride that JV gives the pletcher stakes horses, only on the pace.
Actually think JV would be better for this specific horse, although Algorithms scratches - so a slight thing to follow.
Did everything right so far but he was more natural in his debut where he was just allowed to run. 2nd at a route I think we'll see a natural type of run with less greenness.

Wary of this horse at a classic distance or even 9furlongs in a good race, but this is only 8.5.
He probably gets a very easy trip here. Hes a guy that could be sprinting and hes a sharp type of horse. Union Rags has to show that he's not only stronger than he was at the end of last year, but that he is in great condition.
Two questions. With Discreet Dancer we have a horse that draws some very slight comparisons to Quality Road.
Tactical Speed, Talent, can rate but should have the lead. Even with JV in the 2 path looking to go right handed in the stretch, Union Rags will be wider and have to do more running while Discreet Dancer has a fair chance of breaking well and then running a steady pace up front.

I want Union Rags to win. I want him to draw off and remain on his right lead through the stretch and not bear out. However having watched Discreet Dancer's race, he can't be easily dismissed and very likely will be the one to beat entering the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Nothing soft about running down DD while several solid horses make up the field.

Agreed. I'm not conceding the race to him because I believe Metz is smart enough to not have him 100% wound up for this and you never know whether these good 2YOs will make the turn to 3 well. But if he is pretty sharp, it probably would have taken a "huge" race to beat Algorithms. IMO that's not what you want. He might be able to win this at 90% without killing himself.

[redshift1]

My Ammended picks in order of preference:

1. Discreet Dancer ...recent 96 win on track

2. Union Rags

3. Casual Trick

Race sets up for DD who may end up the favorite but if DD can't get the distance and UR is short then Neck "N Neck or Casual Trick might get lucky.


.

[Blenheim]

Best or racin luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin forward to the Fountain of Youth.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

DD has been asked to do something new both starts, and both starts he delivered.

He really rated well in the stretch out to 1 mile. Completely relaxed.

Obviously with Algorithms out it's a different race. DD might go gate-to-wire now but I wouldn't take the short price.

Seriously, this horse has beaten absolutely nothing to-date. In that mile allowance he got away with modest fractions and only a hopeless 100/1 shot "pressuring" him in the first half-mile. Five of the opposing horses have ran back since-- finishing 5th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 8th. Highest Beyer of those five starts was 77.

Of the opposition from his debut race, only one has broken its maiden and that was in a MCL contest in ordinary time; that horse was subsequently beaten by 40 lengths in a starter allowance. Except for the sixth and eighth finishers who haven't ran back, all of the others have lost since in MCL company.

[redshift1]

You can't fault the horse for beating weaker competition when he's cruising by open lengths. I agree though DD is unplayable unless used in some exotic combination.

[Beachbabe]

Discreet Dancer to romp !!

[Cholly]

ANQAI