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02-25-2012, 07:33 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 359
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While there certainly have been horses in the past that cant duplicate their form out of Florida, El Padrino has run over 4 different tracks already and despite the placings, one thing is common in all 4 races. He is moving faster than any other horse at the end of the race.
No matter whose speed figs you are using, he is about 5-7 lengths faster than the others on paper right now. His last was so big, I would expect a regression today, but unless one of the others makes a really huge jump forward, it is not going to be enough to beat him. Not to mention there were showers in the forecast overnight (not sure how much tho).
Of the others, Mark Valeski seems possible to run a good one on the stretchout. Afford is a half to Fast Alex and exits an allowance win that came up several lengths faster than the Lecomte (on Thorograph anyway). Optimizer has a buried race last year that makes him competitive with the rest (minus El Padrino) if he can get back to it.
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02-25-2012, 07:39 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Bossier City, Louisiana
Posts: 756
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Not sure how good the #3 is but he was very wide his entire last race. Also gotta play Ted's Folly back one more time. Try to work these two into some kinda exotic with the logical horses and pray.
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02-25-2012, 12:08 PM
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#48
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tread
While there certainly have been horses in the past that cant duplicate their form out of Florida, El Padrino has run over 4 different tracks already and despite the placings, one thing is common in all 4 races. He is moving faster than any other horse at the end of the race.
No matter whose speed figs you are using, he is about 5-7 lengths faster than the others on paper right now. His last was so big, I would expect a regression today, but unless one of the others makes a really huge jump forward, it is not going to be enough to beat him. Not to mention there were showers in the forecast overnight (not sure how much tho).
Of the others, Mark Valeski seems possible to run a good one on the stretchout. Afford is a half to Fast Alex and exits an allowance win that came up several lengths faster than the Lecomte (on Thorograph anyway). Optimizer has a buried race last year that makes him competitive with the rest (minus El Padrino) if he can get back to it.
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Nice post.
And I've seen the data set that shows he is indeed 5 - 7 lengths faster - maybe more. I want to comment on the regression part of your post. The horse has had only one race this year and has only two 4fl works coming into this one, so I don't think he'll regress. I'm thinkin' he is likely to move forward.
Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Risen Star.
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
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02-25-2012, 12:37 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Kansas
Posts: 1,833
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02-25-2012, 04:01 PM
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#50
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Are we lucky enough to have the Sabin at GP go off at the same time as the Rachel A at FG???
Waaaaaahooooooo 
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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02-25-2012, 05:54 PM
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#51
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Damn just saw post parade El Padrino good looking chestnut..
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02-25-2012, 05:55 PM
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#52
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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Got my numbers kinda mixed . . .
El Padrino
Z Dager
Shared Property
Optimizer
Mr. Bowling
Wow, 15/1 on the Z horse - gptta make the bet here!
Good luck . . . one minute to post.
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
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02-25-2012, 06:03 PM
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#53
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Go ahead buy the El Padrino stock...yikes, sell now.Also had to lean over to win the race.Double yikes.
Last edited by Casino; 02-25-2012 at 06:05 PM.
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02-25-2012, 06:07 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Off the Turnpike
Posts: 2,930
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A laughable objection. The 1 never took up.
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02-25-2012, 06:07 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 359
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Your horses get destroyed by 5+ lengths but you want to disparage the winner. Predictable.
I expected him to take a step back today, and he did a little, but Jones has been saying that 1A would be better stretching out, and he certainly was. Those 2 DESTROYED the rest of this field. Selling the stock is a ridiculous statement, but not surprising given the author.
Have some more excuses for Shared Property you would like to share?
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02-25-2012, 06:12 PM
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#56
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tread
Your horses get destroyed by 5+ lengths but you want to disparage the winner. Predictable.
I expected him to take a step back today, and he did a little, but Jones has been saying that 1A would be better stretching out, and he certainly was. Those 2 DESTROYED the rest of this field. Selling the stock is a ridiculous statement, but not surprising given the author.
Have some more excuses for Shared Property you would like to share?
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A.i passed the race
B.Whether he won or not he was a horrific bet.
C.He couldnt win the derby with a head start.
D.If you bet him the good lord was looking over you.
E.And El Padrino is what i thought he was.
F.i had Delta Ranger in the last at gulfstream on the cutback to 7f. 
Good night.
Last edited by Casino; 02-25-2012 at 06:13 PM.
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02-25-2012, 06:25 PM
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#57
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tread
Your horses get destroyed by 5+ lengths but you want to disparage the winner. Predictable.
I expected him to take a step back today, and he did a little, but Jones has been saying that 1A would be better stretching out, and he certainly was. Those 2 DESTROYED the rest of this field. Selling the stock is a ridiculous statement, but not surprising given the author.
Have some more excuses for Shared Property you would like to share?
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He stepped back a little,your kidding right?Your justifying his performance because Jones said his horse would be better stretching out.Funny 
Dude the horse is a pretender along with the rest of Pletchers stock including Alpha,Discreet Dancer and Algorithms.All 3 including the Godfather i wouldnt touch til the 2nd half of the season.
Last edited by Casino; 02-25-2012 at 06:34 PM.
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02-25-2012, 06:28 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Casino
He stepped back a little,your kidding right?Your justifying his performance because Jones said his horse would be better stretching out.Funny |
The only thing that is funny is how you are trying to save face in this thread over how ridiculous you look. Loved the F. redboard edit to your last post.
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02-25-2012, 06:30 PM
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#59
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tread
The only thing that is funny is how you are trying to save face in this thread over how ridiculous you look. Loved the F. redboard edit to your last post.
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Been betting the distance cutback to 7f for ten years.
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02-25-2012, 06:40 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Casino
He stepped back a little,your kidding right?Your justifying his performance because Jones said his horse would be better stretching out.Funny
Dude the horse is a pretender along with the rest of Pletchers stock including Alpha,Discreet Dancer and Algorithms.All 3 including the Godfather i wouldnt touch til the 2nd half of the season. |
El Padrino beat everyone but the runner-up by 5+. You make it sound like he ran poorly. His final time was the fastest of the three 1 1/16 stakes at FG today. Going to get another Beyer around 100.
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