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07-15-2018, 02:30 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Numbers dont really dont show that though.
I did a query, super trainers, Morning line fav that went off at 7/2 or more, so these are horses who were under bet.
The win percentage drops to 17%, but that lines up statistically with the odds range I did, and the ROI is dang close to break even. So they are still performing from a betting standpoint. Maybe your missing some of the key signs of nonperformance from these trainers but odds based they still do well.
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Did you query a specific list of trainers or was it based on winning percentage or something like that?
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07-15-2018, 02:35 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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100% disagree.
I dont go horse by horse and right now my bet against strong favorite algorithms are hitting at 78%. Granted it only finds 4-8 horses per day and maybe a few more on the weekends. Its a very narrow search.
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07-15-2018, 02:37 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert
Did you query a specific list of trainers or was it based on winning percentage or something like that?
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here was the paremeters
all turf races
all distances
Morning Line favorites
Max odds 2/1
win percentage was 36%
If you just say 2/1 or less without the ML check than you can get multiple horses per race which throws off the win percentage.
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07-15-2018, 02:45 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
here was the paremeters
all turf races
all distances
Morning Line favorites
Max odds 2/1
win percentage was 36%
If you just say 2/1 or less without the ML check than you can get multiple horses per race which throws off the win percentage.
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Thanks for the answer.
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07-15-2018, 02:56 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert
Did you query a specific list of trainers or was it based on winning percentage or something like that?
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shoot I think I got response mixed up
No I didnt do a trainer specific search but all trainers who qualified as super trainers (its a mix of factors), but its highly accurate in terms of identifying the usual suspects.
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07-15-2018, 03:10 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
shoot I think I got response mixed up
No I didnt do a trainer specific search but all trainers who qualified as super trainers (its a mix of factors), but its highly accurate in terms of identifying the usual suspects.
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I'm really interested in only a few of the suspects generally but thanks for your answers .
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07-15-2018, 03:17 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert
I'm really interested in only a few of the suspects generally but thanks for your answers .
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give me the names and i can help
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07-15-2018, 03:37 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
give me the names and i can help
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Navarro.
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07-15-2018, 04:21 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert
Navarro.
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Navarro
So what you describe rarely happens with him, where his horses are underbet. Granted I only have 3 months but here are some stats.
parameters
MLF + OFF odds between 3/1-5/1..so basically overlays based on MLF.
4 races....1 win. So it basically does not happen
how about ML 2nd choice and 4/1-6/1
5 races....0 wins. so no real sample size other than to say this is an oddity (though at 1 for 9 between the two its a good bet against angle.
Navarro less the 2/1
92 runners....48 wins...0.95 ROI
3 months of data.
Navarro >5/1 all races
0/12
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07-15-2018, 07:25 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
100% disagree.
I dont go horse by horse and right now my bet against strong favorite algorithms are hitting at 78%. Granted it only finds 4-8 horses per day and maybe a few more on the weekends. Its a very narrow search.
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So your algorithms are just for race classes? If the algorithms are used to identify a vulnerable favorite wouldn't that be horse-by-horse? The theme of this thread seems to have centered on a certain race classes yielding more vulnerable favorites so that if a NW3L race was being run there would be presumption of a vulnerable favorite. To me a vulnerable favorite is one that would win at a lesser rate than normal for the given odds.
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07-15-2018, 07:38 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
So your algorithms are just for race classes? If the algorithms are used to identify a vulnerable favorite wouldn't that be horse-by-horse? The theme of this thread seems to have centered on a certain race classes yielding more vulnerable favorites so that if a NW3L race was being run there would be presumption of a vulnerable favorite. To me a vulnerable favorite is one that would win at a lesser rate than normal for the given odds.
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well from that stand point, everything is horse to horse. Its impossible to just say I play these races as the fav does not win as much. Even in the best case its going to be > than 30% winners.
Some of mine are class based but almost all are some kind of combination of angle based. One of my best plays against is NW1X/OC1X, broke mdn last out by large margin, pace below race par, bad barn, ML Fav. These horses have an IV below .50 and win well below the 35% avg winner for that class.
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07-15-2018, 08:58 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Navarro
So what you describe rarely happens with him, where his horses are underbet. Granted I only have 3 months but here are some stats.
parameters
MLF + OFF odds between 3/1-5/1..so basically overlays based on MLF.
4 races....1 win. So it basically does not happen
how about ML 2nd choice and 4/1-6/1
5 races....0 wins. so no real sample size other than to say this is an oddity (though at 1 for 9 between the two its a good bet against angle.
Navarro less the 2/1
92 runners....48 wins...0.95 ROI
3 months of data.
Navarro >5/1 all races
0/12
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Got to say this, when the money shows, he wins more than 50% of the time. Wonder if that is a coincidence?
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07-15-2018, 10:16 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Got to say this, when the money shows, he wins more than 50% of the time. Wonder if that is a coincidence?
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I need more data but for the past 3 months
Trainer change - 11/21 with a 1.14 ROI
considering that he takes so much money thats pretty amazing.
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07-16-2018, 08:45 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Got to say this, when the money shows, he wins more than 50% of the time. Wonder if that is a coincidence?
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And when it doesn't show his horses that are around 5-1 on the board probably should be 20-1 if you are making your own line. I have always found it a good starting point when one of the favorites damn near tell you they will not be participating for the win. It is more of a feel thing for me at this point but it shows some good results.
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07-16-2018, 12:35 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Makes the sweet spot on him 6/5 to 5/2. Should have a slightly positive ROI in that odds range.
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