Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-15-2018, 02:30 PM   #31
tophatmert
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Numbers dont really dont show that though.

I did a query, super trainers, Morning line fav that went off at 7/2 or more, so these are horses who were under bet.

The win percentage drops to 17%, but that lines up statistically with the odds range I did, and the ROI is dang close to break even. So they are still performing from a betting standpoint. Maybe your missing some of the key signs of nonperformance from these trainers but odds based they still do well.
Did you query a specific list of trainers or was it based on winning percentage or something like that?
tophatmert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 02:35 PM   #32
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
100% disagree.

I dont go horse by horse and right now my bet against strong favorite algorithms are hitting at 78%. Granted it only finds 4-8 horses per day and maybe a few more on the weekends. Its a very narrow search.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 02:37 PM   #33
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert View Post
Did you query a specific list of trainers or was it based on winning percentage or something like that?
here was the paremeters

all turf races
all distances
Morning Line favorites
Max odds 2/1


win percentage was 36%

If you just say 2/1 or less without the ML check than you can get multiple horses per race which throws off the win percentage.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 02:45 PM   #34
tophatmert
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
here was the paremeters

all turf races
all distances
Morning Line favorites
Max odds 2/1


win percentage was 36%

If you just say 2/1 or less without the ML check than you can get multiple horses per race which throws off the win percentage.
Thanks for the answer.
tophatmert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 02:56 PM   #35
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert View Post
Did you query a specific list of trainers or was it based on winning percentage or something like that?
shoot I think I got response mixed up

No I didnt do a trainer specific search but all trainers who qualified as super trainers (its a mix of factors), but its highly accurate in terms of identifying the usual suspects.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 03:10 PM   #36
tophatmert
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
shoot I think I got response mixed up

No I didnt do a trainer specific search but all trainers who qualified as super trainers (its a mix of factors), but its highly accurate in terms of identifying the usual suspects.
I'm really interested in only a few of the suspects generally but thanks for your answers .
tophatmert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 03:17 PM   #37
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert View Post
I'm really interested in only a few of the suspects generally but thanks for your answers .
give me the names and i can help
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 03:37 PM   #38
tophatmert
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
give me the names and i can help
Navarro.
tophatmert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 04:21 PM   #39
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by tophatmert View Post
Navarro.
Navarro

So what you describe rarely happens with him, where his horses are underbet. Granted I only have 3 months but here are some stats.

parameters

MLF + OFF odds between 3/1-5/1..so basically overlays based on MLF.

4 races....1 win. So it basically does not happen

how about ML 2nd choice and 4/1-6/1

5 races....0 wins. so no real sample size other than to say this is an oddity (though at 1 for 9 between the two its a good bet against angle.

Navarro less the 2/1

92 runners....48 wins...0.95 ROI

3 months of data.

Navarro >5/1 all races

0/12
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 07:25 PM   #40
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
100% disagree.

I dont go horse by horse and right now my bet against strong favorite algorithms are hitting at 78%. Granted it only finds 4-8 horses per day and maybe a few more on the weekends. Its a very narrow search.
So your algorithms are just for race classes? If the algorithms are used to identify a vulnerable favorite wouldn't that be horse-by-horse? The theme of this thread seems to have centered on a certain race classes yielding more vulnerable favorites so that if a NW3L race was being run there would be presumption of a vulnerable favorite. To me a vulnerable favorite is one that would win at a lesser rate than normal for the given odds.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 07:38 PM   #41
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
So your algorithms are just for race classes? If the algorithms are used to identify a vulnerable favorite wouldn't that be horse-by-horse? The theme of this thread seems to have centered on a certain race classes yielding more vulnerable favorites so that if a NW3L race was being run there would be presumption of a vulnerable favorite. To me a vulnerable favorite is one that would win at a lesser rate than normal for the given odds.
well from that stand point, everything is horse to horse. Its impossible to just say I play these races as the fav does not win as much. Even in the best case its going to be > than 30% winners.

Some of mine are class based but almost all are some kind of combination of angle based. One of my best plays against is NW1X/OC1X, broke mdn last out by large margin, pace below race par, bad barn, ML Fav. These horses have an IV below .50 and win well below the 35% avg winner for that class.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 08:58 PM   #42
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Navarro

So what you describe rarely happens with him, where his horses are underbet. Granted I only have 3 months but here are some stats.

parameters

MLF + OFF odds between 3/1-5/1..so basically overlays based on MLF.

4 races....1 win. So it basically does not happen

how about ML 2nd choice and 4/1-6/1

5 races....0 wins. so no real sample size other than to say this is an oddity (though at 1 for 9 between the two its a good bet against angle.

Navarro less the 2/1

92 runners....48 wins...0.95 ROI

3 months of data.

Navarro >5/1 all races

0/12

Got to say this, when the money shows, he wins more than 50% of the time. Wonder if that is a coincidence?
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2018, 10:16 PM   #43
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Got to say this, when the money shows, he wins more than 50% of the time. Wonder if that is a coincidence?
I need more data but for the past 3 months

Trainer change - 11/21 with a 1.14 ROI

considering that he takes so much money thats pretty amazing.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-16-2018, 08:45 AM   #44
tophatmert
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Got to say this, when the money shows, he wins more than 50% of the time. Wonder if that is a coincidence?
And when it doesn't show his horses that are around 5-1 on the board probably should be 20-1 if you are making your own line. I have always found it a good starting point when one of the favorites damn near tell you they will not be participating for the win. It is more of a feel thing for me at this point but it shows some good results.
tophatmert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-16-2018, 12:35 PM   #45
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Makes the sweet spot on him 6/5 to 5/2. Should have a slightly positive ROI in that odds range.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:34 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.