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07-03-2018, 06:49 PM
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#1
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,908
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Who do you call to share ideas?
For the last few days, my big struggle has been understanding an anomaly in racing statistics I discovered.
Specifically, "Why do Quirin ES 7-8 point horses under-perform on Saturday in comparison to Thursdays?"
Just as big a struggle was figuring out who to discuss it with. I was really looking for someone to have a philosophical discussion about WHY something was happening.
I decided to reach out to Mr. Formula! (Never done that before.)
Boy, did I pick the right guy!
After laying out the question for about 5 minutes, he provided me with where to look for an answer.
Of course, I said, "Yeah, that won't be it," but it absolutely was the right answer.
The question itself hardly matters (although it is interesting in and of itself). The point was how poignant his answer was.
He essentially said to break everything down by odds, and that will clarify whatever you are looking for.
When we did that what we found could be summed up in several statements:
"On Saturdays vs. Thursdays..."
1. "... the IV of 7-8 point horses is exactly the same as Thursday."
2. "... the $Net of 7-8 point horses is lower because the public bets those horses down."
(That may seem obvious, but it is really the rest of this that brings it all together.)
3. "... the average 7-8 point horse below 7/2 goes off at 1.56/1, which should result in a payoff of $5.12, but only pays $5.06."
"While on Thursdays, the average 7-8 point horse below 7/2 goes off at 1.61/1, which should pay $5.22, but instead, pays $5.31!"
4. In other words, on Saturdays the winning 7-8s are bet DOWN below their odds and on Thursdays they actually go UP!"
The full implication of this to a statistics-based handicapper could be enormous.
Mr. Formula gets a big THANK YOU from me!
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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07-03-2018, 08:39 PM
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#2
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
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Who is Mr. Formula?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-03-2018, 09:43 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Home
Posts: 342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Who is Mr. Formula?
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Exactly, who's that?
My go to guy is Mr. Algorithm
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07-03-2018, 10:55 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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Yes, that would be him.
Really interesting stuff I learned today as a result of asking good questions of the right guy.
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07-03-2018, 11:07 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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"Mr. Formula" has almost 30,000 posts here...and I don't recall encountering even ONE of them.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-03-2018, 11:20 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: East Texas
Posts: 1,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
"Mr. Formula" has almost 30,000 posts here...and I don't recall encountering even ONE of them.
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I encounter them. I just don't understand what I'm looking at!
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07-03-2018, 11:21 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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I would have guessed that the pools would be less efficient on Saturday because more casual fans are playing but the flip side to that is that the quality of the racing is higher on Saturday which could impact how the races are bet.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-03-2018 at 11:22 PM.
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07-03-2018, 11:21 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulerider
I encounter them. I just don't understand what I'm looking at!
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I am the lucky one then...because I don't need any more confusion. 
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-03-2018, 11:59 PM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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WILL THE REAL MR FORMULA STEP FORWARD?
YES,IT IS I DEAR READER.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-04-2018, 12:41 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,492
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saturdays
Most of my best days are on Saturdays
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07-04-2018, 01:43 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
WILL THE REAL MR FORMULA STEP FORWARD?
YES,IT IS I DEAR READER. |
Prove you are not a program. Select all images with street numbers.
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07-04-2018, 04:13 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,578
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dave,
i don't call anyone but when i need equine advice i do go to penn national and wait (like frankie pentangeli in godfather 2) to be called to the table of don tonyk@hsh.
Last edited by proximity; 07-04-2018 at 04:14 AM.
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07-04-2018, 04:46 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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On fair playing tracks this is relevant information. In the summer at most tracks it is insignificant on dirt.
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07-04-2018, 05:11 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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"Whom do you call to share ideas?"
I don't have anyone whom I could call...but this is an interesting question to ponder. And the better question might be: "Whom would you LIKE to call...if you had access to him without it being an imposition?" For me, it would be, in no particular order:
DeltaLover (His computer software expertise makes up for my illiteracy on the subject.)
Cj (I am unclear about the pace methodology through which he adjusts his figures.)
PaceAdvantage (Perhaps I could persuade him to reveal to me the piece of software responsible for the $60-winners that he is currently selecting.)
__________________
Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 07-04-2018 at 05:22 AM.
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