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09-02-2022, 02:34 PM
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#226
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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lets see if i can work out of the hole i dug
1 win in 7 races $1 return about $.20
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-03-2022, 11:01 AM
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#227
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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TOTALS THROUGH 350 RACES
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-03-2022, 11:05 AM
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#228
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
lets see if i can work out of the hole i dug
1 win in 7 races $1 return about $.20
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SHORT TERM, NOT A GOOD DAY
4 WINS IN 24 RACES $1 RETURN =$0.49
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-03-2022, 12:45 PM
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#229
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Monmouth Park* Race 2
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-03-2022, 01:14 PM
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#230
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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SAR R3
Code:
EXACTA PLAY PGN0 BET SIZE
KEY HORSE>>>> 6
1 $21
---- ----
---- ----
4 $25
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
8 $54
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-03-2022 at 01:26 PM.
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09-03-2022, 01:24 PM
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#231
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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SAR R3
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Code:
EXACTA PLAY PGN0 BET SIZE
KEY HORSE>>>> 6
1 $21
---- ----
---- ----
4 $25
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
8 $54
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
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FOR THE CURIOUS.
RETURNS ON HIGHEST BET SIZE WIN BET IN THIS TYPE OF RACE:
60 WINNERS IN 132 RACES. $1 RETURN $0.99
JUST KEEPING SCORE 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-03-2022 at 01:26 PM.
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09-03-2022, 05:11 PM
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#232
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
SAR R10
EXACTA PLAY PGN0 BET SIZE
KEY HORSE>>>> 4
---- ----
---- ----
3 $71
---- ----
---- ----
6 $20
7 $9
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-03-2022, 05:17 PM
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#233
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Code:
SAR R10
EXACTA PLAY PGN0 BET SIZE
KEY HORSE>>>> 4
---- ----
---- ----
3 $71
---- ----
---- ----
6 $20
7 $9
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
---- ----
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HAPPENED AGAIN. MAY HAVE MADE THIS A PLAY TO BE RECKONED WITH
#3 WINS AT 9/2
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-03-2022 at 05:19 PM.
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09-03-2022, 06:14 PM
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#234
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
HAPPENED AGAIN. MAY HAVE MADE THIS A PLAY TO BE RECKONED WITH
#3 WINS AT 9/2
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DISREGARD.. INCORRECT
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-04-2022, 07:52 AM
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#235
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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368 RACE TOTALS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-05-2022, 10:55 AM
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#236
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Here is some exciting news. Based on current data I have recalculated the win bet size formula. With no apparent outliers, the returns are much increased. Of course, no change in the win %
Even those races I considered to be unplayable generate $0.97 on the dollar, again with no apparent outliers, winning 39% 0f their races (42 wins in 107 races).
There is now 1 of 4 possible plays in each race, previously there were 1 of three.
There were two types of win plays, 1 exacta play. Now there is an additional win play. hope i got it right!!! will triple check.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-05-2022 at 10:57 AM.
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09-06-2022, 12:35 AM
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#237
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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THERE ARE 3 WIN PLAY CONDITIONS ON MY 2ND CHOICE
1 WIN PLAY CONDITION ON MY TOP CHOICE
2 EXACTA PLAY CONDITIONS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-07-2022, 09:35 AM
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#238
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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overall 1st day results based on the above:
only 5 of the 6 conditions were met
only 1 of those showed a profit.
>=300>=8 TOP CHOICE WIN PLAY 4 wins in 8 plays
return/ bet =$1.01
$1 normalized return was $1.10
overall: won 9 of 37 plays
return/bet =$0.41
$1 normalized return was $0.44
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-08-2022, 10:35 AM
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#239
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Going forward from results through 09-05-2022 I will expand the study to include tracking a win play my top choice, second choice and exacta for each of the six conditions listed.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-08-2022, 09:25 PM
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#240
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Going forward from results through 09-05-2022 I will expand the study to include tracking a win play my top choice, second choice and exacta for each of the six conditions listed.
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I think you got the final piece of the puzzle
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