Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Software


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-06-2023, 02:33 PM   #31
Speed Figure
DJ M.Walk
 
Speed Figure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 2,072
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triopstor View Post
It took me 17 to 19 hours to calculate the results for "Bet To Win For A Living" for last month's AQUEDUCT 2023/04

THE RESULTS
=========

The first "Yes"(Free From Blemish) found in the (Negative) COMMENTS section of the software screen + the second "Yes" to Bonus!!! Higher % Win (Show Summary Bets)

Spot Play "Yes"+"Yes"+BTW1 = 12/33 = 36.36% winners ROI = +11.96%
Spot Play "Yes"+"Yes"+BTW2 = 6/15 = 40.00% winners ROI = -2.66%

Spot Play "No"+"Yes"+BTW1 = 1/7 =14.28% winners ROI = -77.14%
Spot Play "No"+"Yes"+BTW2 =30/91 =32.96% winners ROI=-7.30%

i always gave a "No"(Free From Blemish) to horses with below 24% past win rate(Win%) OR below 50% in the money in past performance(ITM)


I Lumped into the results both Turf and Dirt surface races. And the program I don't think the software can move Turf races to the Dirt surfaces in racing. But this doesn't seem to hinder for now till a larger database has been collected.
It took you 17 to 19 hours to calculate these results for 146 total races?
Speed Figure is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 03:18 PM   #32
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triopstor View Post
It took me 17 to 19 hours to calculate the results for "Bet To Win For A Living" for last month's AQUEDUCT 2023/04

THE RESULTS
=========

The first "Yes"(Free From Blemish) found in the (Negative) COMMENTS section of the software screen + the second "Yes" to Bonus!!! Higher % Win (Show Summary Bets)

Spot Play "Yes"+"Yes"+BTW1 = 12/33 = 36.36% winners ROI = +11.96%
Spot Play "Yes"+"Yes"+BTW2 = 6/15 = 40.00% winners ROI = -2.66%

Spot Play "No"+"Yes"+BTW1 = 1/7 =14.28% winners ROI = -77.14%
Spot Play "No"+"Yes"+BTW2 =30/91 =32.96% winners ROI=-7.30%

i always gave a "No"(Free From Blemish) to horses with below 24% past win rate(Win%) OR below 50% in the money in past performance(ITM)
So, summarizing all of these, you'd have:

49-146 33.6% $Net= $1.88 Avg Odds on wins 9/5

That's respectable.
Only lost 6% overall.

Logically, probably you need about 800 bets in a category to have a semblance of this working long term, and, because (I assume) there are some longshots in it, even more. Maybe round it to about 2,000 bets.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 03:37 PM   #33
Triopstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 100
Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverAlley View Post
You forgot to list their mailing address and phone number.
The Website is:

https://rpmhandicappinggiant.com/pro...-software-too/

And phone number of RPM Handicapping Giant is:

1-760-274-3991

Monday – Friday 8 a.m. – 7 p.m.
Saturday / Sunday – same
(San Diego) Pacific time

And the email address is:
support@rpmhandicappinggiant.com


Mailing Address:
RPM Information Systems
6965 El Camino Real Suite #105-454
Carlsbad, California 92009


I just assume people would find the website in my original post of this thread.
#1 in that post. Glad to help.
Triopstor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 03:45 PM   #34
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triopstor View Post
I just assume people would find the website in my original post of this thread.
#1 in that post. Glad to help.
I believe you are having your leg pulled a wee bit.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 03:48 PM   #35
Triopstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
It took you 17 to 19 hours to calculate these results for 146 total races?

Yes. This includes studying the program for the first time, building a database in Excel workbook , typing, doing scratches manually.

But the running of the software is in approximately within 2 seconds quick as there is a "Show Summary Bets" button that can be done AFTER the scratches have been done. You just press the "Show Summary Bets" button.
Triopstor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 04:13 PM   #36
Triopstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 100
Yes the software is working good when the data is categorized.

Yes I need about 900 to 1000 winners and 900 to 1000 losers or more for the sample size to be reliable for my confidence (which you are right) need thousands of records.

The estimation for my confidence is 2682 races * 33.56(49 winners out of 146 races) = 900.1232

TO

The estimation for my confidence is 2980 races * 33.56(49 winners out of 146 races) = 1000.1369


This 2682 to 2980 races provides stability in both frequency of winners AND the winner's return price.

Never go lower than 900 winners database for Horse Racing.
Triopstor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 04:15 PM   #37
Triopstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 100
Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
So, summarizing all of these, you'd have:

49-146 33.6% $Net= $1.88 Avg Odds on wins 9/5

That's respectable.
Only lost 6% overall.

Logically, probably you need about 800 bets in a category to have a semblance of this working long term, and, because (I assume) there some longshots in it, even more. Maybe round it to about 2,000 bets.
Thanks for putting the information in a bigger picture Dave. "Average Odds on wins 9/5"
Triopstor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 04:17 PM   #38
Triopstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 100
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I believe you are having your leg pulled a wee bit.

*Laughs* I don't mind as long as it's helpful
Triopstor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 05:13 PM   #39
headhawg
crusty old guy
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,915
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triopstor View Post
Yes I need about 900 to 1000 winners and 900 to 1000 losers or more for the sample size to be reliable for my confidence (which you are right) need thousands of records.
Sample size is sample size. The n is the n, and the data tells what the Win% is, not some arbitrary numbers for winners and losers. Not sure where your ideas about statistics comes from but it calls into question your approach and results.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
headhawg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2023, 05:18 PM   #40
GaryG
Unreconstructed
 
GaryG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,645
Somehow I got on his mailing list. The emails resembled ads from the 60s for can't miss systems. The private method of some high rolling pro player. Every email touted some software that was better than the rest. The only difference between his ads and the ones 60 years ago is that his use software. My suggestion is to learn the game on your own. Hopefully racing as we know it will last long enough.
__________________
Deo Vindice
GaryG is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:25 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.