Plonk: Bob Baffert Babies are Delirious at Del Mar. (Do you believe it's real?)

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Igotabeef

Why don’t I see as many complaints about Pletcher when he goes on these runs with his ridiculous stable of all blue bloods? He then enters a quarter of the gate in the Derby routinely with horses who usually run up the track. That is good for racing? I have been around this forum for over a decade.

I don’t have much to say obviously, but many of the people here decided without any proven facts that you can call Baffert a cheat while not applying the same standards to people like Pletcher, Assmusen, or even D’Amato. All have results most trainers can’t seem to replicate. Don’t see them with a long line of positives. I can’t say they aren’t cheating, but you can’t say they are. Should there be ...

Insurance underwriters make a living speculating risk when presented with tendencies, trends and variables many of which are not black and white. If you applied the same mindset, an insurance underwriter would conclude Baffert and the entire lot of these guys are cheating (or at the very least taking a performance enhancing edge that is not yet specifically called out as illegal but performance enhancing nonetheless).

The need for absolute proof is silly, naive and juvenile. Common sense is all that is needed. Baffert is simply taking as big a bite out of the apple now before the game dissolves into something quite different where he won't be able to use it as a personal ATM.

[Robert Fischer]

There's different levels to this stuff...

On one hand you're a man, and you aren't going to publicly accuse other men of things.

On the other hand you are observing, maybe even betting, and you may or may not see the reality of the system. You bet what you see. You may talk to your buddy about what you see. But you aren't going to shout what you see to strangers. You are going to respect that other man's space.


and there's also a separate topic on 'proof'

We are in a era (maybe all eras were like this, but now we got the internet...), but we are in an era where understanding and insight is rare. And 80% or more of people think in a herd mentality. If a topic comes up, most people are going to first 'repeat the rules'. Then comes the accepted summary of a thing. (Often these are the same). But if you want to think or discuss beyond that, you are on your own with that stuff...These guys need 'proof'... Even in so-called intellectual discussions, you will find most people incapable of seeing and understanding a system. You be asked for a 'source' on things that seem absolutely obvious to you. The idea of ownership of insight and understanding on a subject, - to a degree of competence that you can assign probabilities of your own, separate from the rules or the accepted summary, is foreign to almost everyone.

This mentality and these types of thinkers are why markets work.
This is why you can play a rigged game that's designed as a wealth-concentration-mechanism with exorbitant fees, and yet have a mathematical certainty of growing a small fraction of your bankroll.

Source:
Lee, Yong-Seok and Alcino J Silva. “The molecular and cellular biology of enhanced cognition” Nature reviews. Neuroscience vol. 10,2 (2009): 126-40.

ok, I need to cut back on the coffee

[Igotabeef]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Insurance underwriters make a living speculating risk when presented with tendencies, trends and variables many of which are not black and white. If you applied the same mindset, an insurance underwriter would conclude Baffert and the entire lot of these guys are cheating (or at the very least taking a performance enhancing edge that is not yet specifically called out as illegal but performance enhancing nonetheless).

The need for absolute proof is silly, naive and juvenile. Common sense is all that is needed. Baffert is simply taking as big a bite out of the apple now before the game dissolves into something quite different where he won't be able to use it as a personal ATM.

Common sense tells me that if these animals were all running beyond their abilities, we’d be seeing a whole lot of breakdowns. Look at the NFL, guys blow out pectorals, tear hamstrings, even saw a fully torn quad listed. They are doing things beyond their abilities, and their bodies are breaking down. How many Baffert horses shatter legs in races versus the ultra clean trainers I’m sure you have a list of in your condescending head?

Pletcher horses break down all the time, are retired before the triple crown even, yet the guy who takes the heat is the one who focuses on winning the Derby with a program made for peaking for that time at the cost of running well later. His owners seem to like it. You don’t.

If you are so smart and know what he is doing, you should be too busy counting your money and not be commenting over 2000 times in a message board. My common sense is used for gambling. I’m not the morality police. I bet and attempt to win. The whole group of you that find everything to complain about and don’t understand you won’t change anything amaze me. I’d suggest a hobby but this seems to be it, and it clearly makes you miserable.

[chadk66]

with the two year old stock Baffert has he better be winning at that clip.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

When their 2 and 3 year old horses race each other, who has the better success?

I prefer the trainers who can patiently keep a horse in condition, winning and running until 5 years old and longer.

It's sort of like music. There will always be one-hit wonders, and short careers, then there's the ones who keep on producing for 5x longer than those.

That to me is real *talent*.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Igotabeef

My common sense is used for gambling. I’m not the morality police.

I don't see morality and common sense as mutually exclusive, but then again, I don't see success as needing to be exempt from top-notch ethics, either.

Plenty of people have managed to combine both. It's not easy, that is why there are not a WHOLE lot of successful people who are famous for being ultra-ethical....but there are some.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Spalding No!]

On 07/28, Honeyfromthesouth was not trained by Bob Baffert. The trainer was David Hofmans. Filly was transferred to Baffert sometime after her debut.

[davew]

Originally Posted by Igotabeef

Common sense tells me that if these animals were all running beyond their abilities, we’d be seeing a whole lot of breakdowns. Look at the NFL, guys blow out pectorals, tear hamstrings, even saw a fully torn quad listed. They are doing things beyond their abilities, and their bodies are breaking down. How many Baffert horses shatter legs in races versus the ultra clean trainers I’m sure you have a list of in your condescending head?

Horse racing is not supposed to be a contact sport like the NFL.

[cj]

I'm not sure what the mystery is here. He has most of the best horses.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm not sure what the mystery is here. He has most of the best horses.

True, and he probably runs his outfit like trainers of old like Allen Jerkens, who got a bunch of new horses in late winter/early spring, put them through their paces then sent a bunch away and brought in more to cull through so he really only had the cream of the crop each year when all was said and done.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[PaceAdvantage]

Magic Elixir is redundant

There are no non-magic elixirs....or at least there shouldn't be...

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by Igotabeef

Common sense tells me that if these animals were all running beyond their abilities, we’d be seeing a whole lot of breakdowns. Look at the NFL, guys blow out pectorals, tear hamstrings, even saw a fully torn quad listed. They are doing things beyond their abilities, and their bodies are breaking down. How many Baffert horses shatter legs in races versus the ultra clean trainers I’m sure you have a list of in your condescending head?

Pletcher horses break down all the time, are retired before the triple crown even, yet the guy who takes the heat is the one who focuses on winning the Derby with a program made for peaking for that time at the cost of running well later. His owners seem to like it. You don’t.

If you are so smart and know what he is doing, you should be too busy counting your money and not be commenting over 2000 times in a message board. My common sense is used for gambling. I’m not the morality police. I bet and attempt to win. The whole group of you that find everything to complain about and don’t understand you won’t change anything amaze me. I’d suggest a hobby but this seems to be it, and it clearly makes you miserable.

not only that but track records would be getting smoked all the time

[Prioress Ply]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Insurance underwriters make a living speculating risk when presented with tendencies, trends and variables many of which are not black and white. If you applied the same mindset, an insurance underwriter would conclude Baffert and the entire lot of these guys are cheating (or at the very least taking a performance enhancing edge that is not yet specifically called out as illegal but performance enhancing nonetheless).

The need for absolute proof is silly, naive and juvenile. Common sense is all that is needed. Baffert is simply taking as big a bite out of the apple now before the game dissolves into something quite different where he won't be able to use it as a personal ATM.

Sharp post. It echoes something I've said for a long time. Everyone knows this is nothing but musical chairs at or near the end of tune. They're grabbing what they can while the game continues, which exacerbates how brazen they are willing to get. Everyone knows it's going to end--and end soon, as least as we know it now.

Talk to people in PETA. You think they are content with dog racing?